Source: Bloomberg
Author: tania Chen
China ’s new trillion government bond issuance has worried about the impact of potential bonds for the capital market.However, the interest rate market has not been shocked since this month, and the latest actions adopted by the People's Bank of China have shown a variety of signs that the previously rising downgraded expectations seem to be cooling down.
The scale of government bond issuance this year is expected to break the historical record.According to the data provided by Oriental Securities, the scale of national bonds this year is close to 7 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about 1.3 trillion yuan). As of this weekend, this year's issuance scale is about 9.6 trillion yuan, which means that in the whole fullAfter the scale of the year's deficit rose to 4.16 trillion yuan, the scale of government bonds to be issued during the year was about 1.5 trillion yuan.
According to the Ministry of Finance's government bond issuance plan, there are also 11 issues of government bonds and nine -phase discounted government bond issuance during the year. In view of the previous single issuance scale of 115 billion yuan and 95 billion yuan, respectively.This means that the Ministry of Finance may not need to add a new government bond issuance window outside the plan, nor does it need to expand the scale of single -phase issuance to complete the annual national bond issuance goal.
The operation scale of the
Mid -term loan convenience (MLF) operation on Wednesday is as high as 1.45 trillion yuan, and the one -year capital funds this month will be 600 billion yuan, which is the largest in the past seven years.Considering the peak of local government bond issuance, the issuance of policy financial bonds is also close. During the year, the remaining supply pressure on bonds mainly came from government bonds.The central bank's increase in MLF is expected to meet the capital needs of Treasury bonds during the year.
"A huge amount of MLF net offer on Wednesday can completely hedge the impact on the market." Zhao Zhixuan, the chief Asian foreign exchange interest rate strategist of Bloomberg industry research, said that it is expected to be reduced before the end of the year.It may be next year, after all, the current economic data is okay, and the space for China's reduction is getting smaller and smaller.
The Bank of Paris, CITIC Securities, Western Securities and other institutions also hold a similar point of view. It is believed that the probability of further lowering the deposit reserve rate has decreased in the near future, and the next reduction will be postponed.
Rating is not the only option
When the central bank announced MLF operation on Wednesday, it added the expression of "appropriate supply of medium and long -term basic currency".In the view of Western Securities analyst Du Jian, MLF huge net offer and this new expression may be regarded as an alternative to the MLF operation.The report sent by Du Jian and waited for the central bank to continue to carry out liquidity in December through MLF instead of downgrading.
In fact, in addition to the monthly MLF operation, the People's Bank of China can also use structural monetary policy tools to be directed into market blood transfusion.Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter this week that the People's Bank of China also considers to provide at least 1 trillion low -cost funds through special borrowing, mortgage supplementary loan (PSL), etc., and supports affordable housing, urban village reconstruction and emergency infrastructure "three major projects."" ".As of the end of the third quarter, the cumulative balance of various structural tools of the central bank had reached 7 trillion yuan.
At the end of October, due to factors such as local special re -financing bond issuance, the market capital was once tense, which made market institutions feel worried so far.At that time, the cost of non -silver institutions accidentally rose overnight, and the cost of incorporated funds from individual institutions was even as high as 50%annualized.The AAA rating of the 1 -year commercial bank's interbank deposit list (NCD) interest rate also rose to more than half a year in early November, causing the market reduction to rise.
The People's Bank of China has not yet been reduced as market expectations, but the launch of MLF funds on Wednesday also made some market participants see that the reduction is only one of the options for the central bank to meet the demand for market liquidity.After the MLF operation this month, although there are still official media voices, it can be expected to be expected to be reduced, but the previous market's relatively consistent reduction expectations gradually differentiated, and the NCD yield curve fell compared with the early stage.
