Wang Yinhao: Next year, the Chinese property market is expected to usher in ＂Xiaoyang

Source: Beijing Business Daily

Author: Wang Yinhao

None of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has never been concerned by the market.In the two months after "recognizing the house and not recognizing the loan", the market has gone out of the trend from seemingly rapid detonation to stability.With the end of the initial centralized release period, the discussion on whether the policy role ended continued to heat up.Is the market really at the bottom?Does the demand still exist?What kind of heartbroken journey has the buyer, trader, and agent in the market?On the occasion of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the Beijing Business Daily dialogue between the buyers and sellers, and hoped to restore the real state of the market for two months; what are their expectations for the future?

In October, the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", which was highly hoped by real estate practitioners, also came to an end.Zhao Peng, general manager of Beijing Regional Marketing, summarizes the market performance of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in Beijing's Beijing property market -the market is fragile and policies are effective, but it is difficult to maintain the continuous effect.In September, the overwhelming overhaul in September, the successful succession in October, the buyer's buying plan was placed in cautious and vision. It can be expected that this year's market situation has been basically determined: "Following the two small peaks of March, April, and September,Entering the end of November to the beginning of December, as major housing companies enter the year -end sprint stage, various promotional offers will be launched to attract more customers to buy a house.The market peak in April is expected to appear. "

Small units have soared

For the market performance of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" this year, Zhao Peng described the "September September Early overdraft" and "weak succession in October", and different from the favorable improvement of the policies of the outside world. The customer group was mainly concentrated in just needs."Excellence participated in the cooperation of 5 projects in Beijing, and there are just needed projects and improved projects. After the introduction of the New Deal in September, there are better projects in small -sized units. Gang -needed customers belong to it overnight. The overall flow rate of the project has doubled by doubledIt is nearly three times, but there are signs of overdraft demand, so it encounters a cliff in October. "

According to Zhao Peng, the sales performance of the project with just small units has soared after the new policy was introduced in September. For example, the two projects of Beiqing Yunji and Xiyue Qingcui have a small area.In the past history, the best monthly performance of the month was doubled throughout the month.However, for the improvement of the trading project, such as the changes in Qingyun Shangfu and Chaoyang Yishu are not obvious.The main reason is that improving customers' needs "buying and selling" can be counted as the first set. The long decision cycle has led to delay in admission.

Cliff -like decline after explosion

After entering October, the market trend reversed, and the whole October became the most difficult month in Beijing's property market this year."Not only us, all peers are facing difficulties. We have found that the impact of new policies has been estimated." Zhao Peng said that it was expected that the momentum of September would rise slowly in October, but in fact in OctoberThe decline has not even reached the sales volume of September 1/3.What is uncomfortable is that after entering November, the decline has not changed, and the transaction volume and visit of the Beijing property market are still a process of going down.

Through recent team research and contact with home buyers, Zhao Peng depicts the current market. Those who have just entered the venue need to buy all overnight. Although the policy is also good for improvement, this part of the demand is required to release a process.Some improved customers may not be able to sell the houses in their hands in the past two months, and the other part of them belongs to improving customers who understand the market in advance. Their house has not yet sold it. Therefore, although the current number of visitors have a certain base, the transaction volume has declined.Fast."Excessive customer decision -making factors lead to a longer decision -making cycle."

Traditional "Xiaoyang Chun" will also appear

overdraft and weakness, accompanied by harvesting and watching."The market in October is too calm, because all customers have been harvested in September, and the rest is to wait and see customers." Zhao Peng concluded that according to the current data and trends, it is expected that the market in this year can be roughly determined.After a wave of climax in March and April in the first half of the year, the market gradually returned to the calm period. In September, the new policy brought a wave of climax, which took a period of time to cultivate.Entering the end of November to the beginning of December, as major housing companies enter the year -end sprint stage, developers will take some actions based on their own sales and launch various promotional offers.Essence

According to the cyclical changes in the market, Zhao Peng's testing will continue to usher in a wave of market peak in March and April next year, and the traditional "Xiaoyangchun" will still appear."The confidence of home buyers at the beginning of the year, coupled with the favorable signals brought by policy factors, everyone has become more stable for the New Year expectations. The promotion of policy factors and the improvement of market confidence will be expectedOut of.

Let Zhao Peng adhere to the judgment of "Xiaoyangchun" next year, as well as customer thickness in the Beijing market.

According to the observation of Zhao Peng's team, the listing of the second -hand housing market in Beijing has continued to rise, which is currently close to 170,000 units. The stability of the new housing market depends on the changes in the second -hand housing market.The Beijing new housing market has a positive impact.

For customers with replacement needs, they may have a high degree of dependence on the market and funds. Therefore, when the market conditions improve, their confidence will increase.However, due to the long decision -making cycle of the replacement customer base, the motivation for selling the room may be affected to some extent."The current market is affected by the" bundling "of second -hand housing, and we predict that there may be some difficulties in the short term. If there is policy support, the release speed will be faster. Especially those customers who sell houses in the second -hand housing market, they areThe payment chain is relatively long, and it may gradually accumulate in the next few months.

As for just need, in Zhao Peng's view, Beijing still has some unfriendly factors for customers who just need, such as the down payment ratio, the first interest rate, and the general house standards."5 million yuan (RMB and S $ 950,000) to get started, which is still under great pressure for customers who just need it. They need to prepare 2 million yuan down payment and bear 3 million yuan of loans in order to buy just demand. If the down payment.The proportion is adjusted to 20%, so the down payment pressure will be greatly reduced.

In order to make the market faster, in the eyes of Zhao Peng and other front -line marketers, some "channels" need to be opened.

House buyers are more rational and pragmatic

The current Beijing property market is still in the adjustment period, and some new signals have gradually appeared in this context. However, the problem of uneven hot and cold is always "no solution.""Compared to the opening of the' -channel", what we can do is how to seize the factors of 'hot'. At this stage, there are two major market logic worthy of attention. "Zhao Peng said that the first is the total price control logic. At presentMajor developers follow the principle of total price control. This is a very critical factor when the product positioning. Beyond the total price control upper limit may lead to sales difficulties.The total price of some hot -selling projects is relatively low, and behind it also shows that the market consumption leading is still dominated by rigid demand, or price -oriented.

In addition, in the current real estate market, the expectations of home buyers generally decrease, and the consumption logic of paying for "future" has basically disappeared.Many buyers in the past will value the future growth potential of the house, and the current buyers pay more attention to the basic attributes of the house, such as the surrounding environment, transportation convenience, medical support, educational resources, etc., as well as whether the house meets their own living needs."Just look at it in front of the eyes, and do not look at the future, they are more rational and pragmatic."

For real estate companies, in addition to paying attention to "fluctuation logic", the grasp of the market at the stage often determines the success or failure.For the "betting" of potential opportunities, the betting market may generate new directions in the future, rather than waiting for signals.

Zhao Peng bluntly said, the market shape of uneven hot and coldThe situation is not exactly flawed in project products. The occurrence of this phenomenon stems from the decrease in the market's future expectations, which makes the profit margin of land acquisition in the later period greater and the planned conditions are superior.In this context, the preliminary development project dares not to reduce prices or increase costs during the sales process, which leads to the disadvantage of the product compared to other competitors and further affects the sales progress."This also explains why the plot obtained in 2021 is still selling, and the plot obtained in 2023 has been clearly liquidated."

In Zhao Peng's view, due to the overall environmental environment, the project flow rate slows down, which will cause the backlog of the market and enter the vicious cycle.The recovery of the follow -up market confidence depends on whether the policy expectations are clear and whether the buyers' home confidence is sufficient.What kind of policy can restore the confidence of home buyers, stabilize market expectations, and effectively and quickly boost the total demand. The current developers still need to "boil" for a while.