At the end of the year, the three black swans that have been raging and hit the global economy: crown disease epidemic, inflation, and the Russian and Ukraine War. Except for the good news of the era of the epidemic in the world, the remaining two black swans are determinedIt will last until 2024, and the full recovery of the world economy is still long.
Following the September meeting, the Federal Reserve has decided to suspend interest rate hike again at the November meeting.After the 11 rounds of raising interest rates since March 2022, the benchmark interest rate in the United States has reached 5.25%to 5.50%, which is the highest record since 2001.However, in the current complicated political and economic situation, the Fed's interest rate adjustment pace faces the dilemma of "the mountain is easy to go down the mountain".
The Fed Chairman Powell said that the goal of achieving the inflation rate to 2%is still a long way, and the quantitative and tightening interest rate policy still needs to persist, and the interest rate cut is currently not an option at all.In Chengping, high interest rate policies can reduce the economic cooling, reduce employment, and effectively reduce inflation.However, the current global inflation is largely from the negative overflowing effect caused by the world's geopolitical tensions, and it can no longer rely on pure economic policy tools to solve smoothly.
The Russian and Ukraine War was a quick battle from the special military operations defined by the Kremlin, which evolved into a war -consuming war and a long -lasting war.No.The goal of war that the two countries are unusually different from the two countries have led to the life of the war.
A few days ago, Zalu, commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, admitted in an interview with economists in an interview that the war had fallen into a deadlock.According to the previous plans of the Ukraine's senior management, as long as you focus on consumption of the human and equipment resources of Russia, the decision -making layer of the Kegong will end the war due to the pressure of domestic public opinion.So far, the Russian wounded has exceeded 300,000, and the Black Sea Fleet has almost lost its loss.But beyond expectations, Russia has continued to invest in new mobilizing soldiers with four times the population volume of Ukraine, and has the ability to launch local tactical counterattacks.
The original heart is easy to get, and it is always difficult to keep.People are not sages, even if they are government, military commander or policy makers, they will also face dilemma before achieving the goal.To become a real leader, we must have both intellectual and courage, confidently adhere to the correct goal, have excellent communication skills, unite all the forces that can be united, and adjust the action plan at a time to converge the public opinion and the resources of all parties to achieve the end of success.
After each monetary policy meeting in this round of interest rate hikes, Powell's speech focuses differently, and it also revealed that the struggle between the two steel wires between the two and inflation is revealed.It is to adhere to the ultimate goal of the inflation rate to 2%, and to retain all policy options for this.Such a clear monetary policy announcement also means that the era of high interest rates will last longer than expected.As an enterprise, we must maintain a healthy cash flow to avoid high -liability and high leverage investment. As a person in the workplace or the public, you should do a good job of personal financial planning.
At the beginning of the war of Russia and Ukraine, the Russian army had driven straight into, and the soldiers were under the city.On the occasion of crisis, Ukrainian President Zelezki did not obey the security advice of the US EU, resolutely stayed in Kiev, and led military and civilians to resist aggression.Because of the persistence of Zeelianzki, the military assistance of NATO countries and the moral support of most countries in the world were followed in the future.
According to the principle of the UN Charter: Regardless of the size, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, the country must be respected and maintained.Throughout the history of the world, whether it was a long -lasting war between China and Japan during World War II or the 10 -year war against Afghanistan during the Cold War, the ending ended was weak and strong, and the invaders failed.As an excellent war president, Zelei is believed to lead the Ukrainian people to break the deadlock and persist in peace.
The Warring States Policy has clouds: Half a hundred miles away, half ninety.The last mile of the goal is full of difficulties and dangers, but as long as you persist to the end, you will definitely usher in the dawn of the end of the tunnel.
The author is President of the Asia -Pacific Regional Enterprise Group
