Liu Jincai: Concern and loss of the Taiwan presidential election ＂Lu Jiexuan＂

The time to introduce Taiwan's policy on the mainland, "objective" may impact Taiwan's election policy debate and cause the election situation to change, affect voters' voting behavior;Political tools for interpretation and operation.

The recent DPP's Kaohsiung Municipal legislator Zhao Tianlin, which was ruling in Taiwan, was shocked by the extramarital affairs of the mainland women and announced the withdrawal from the 2024 legislators election.Because Zhao himself was the convening member of the National Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee of the Legislative Yuan, it caused the opposition party to consider the suspicion of sensitive national security, and called for an immediately suspending legislator and investigation.The Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China responded that "our position is very clear, we do not involve the election in Taiwan", but "the people do not want to see people who have a loss of private morals to serve themselves."

Before the mainland government election, a series of policies to Taiwan have been sacrificed, which has triggered different cognition and debate in Taiwan society. Does the mainland have subjectively affected the motivation and results of the election?However, in terms of the impact of the objective effect of the policy, the setting of election issues is closely related to public policy debate.Although the mainland government claims to have never been involved and interfered in Taiwan's elections, the objective effect of policy promotion has the role of stimulating policy debates and guiding public opinion.

This excludes the attitude of supporting specific candidates and political parties in the Taiwan election, avoiding the countermeasures of the "National Security Five Law".; Although it does not support specific candidates in form, it is essentially effective.

But this may also be counterproductive. For example, in 2018, the Kuomintang elections were almost victorious, but in 2019, Xi Jinping, President of Mainland China, proposed a "two -system Taiwan plan"."Fa", giving the DPP "pick up the gun" opportunity to resort to the strategy of "Anti -China Baozai Line" and "United -US Anti -China" strategy, and repeatedly increased Cai Yingwen's extremely low support and election. In the end, it is so -called so -called so -called so -called"Xi Jinping became Cai Yingwen super -assistant" said.

After the Taiwan election, the newly elected president failed to effectively respond to the policy demands on the mainland, and cross -strait relations will inevitably fall into a more vicious circle.Especially for Lai Qingde, a DPP presidential candidate for the DPP, which is currently the highest poll, the early warning of the mainland is undoubtedly a "preventive measure".Once Lai Qingde, who advocates "pragmatism independence", wins, may trigger sanctions on Taiwan's economic and trade sanctions on Taiwan.

First of all, start a trade barrier investigation and extend to the day before the presidential election vote.The Ministry of Commerce of the Mainland decided to investigate the review of 2509 commodity trade barriers to Taiwan until January 12 next year. This is the day before the voting of the Taiwan election.This time is obviously intended to affect the general election, and it is clear that the political account must be calculated after the election.The deadline for the extension period is "just right" one day before the election, which is related to the presidential election and the development of cross -strait relations after the presidential election.

According to Article 32 of the "Foreign Trade Barrier Survey Rules": under special circumstances, it can be extended, but the extension period must not exceed three months.In any case, the investigation was completed the day before the vote of the presidential election of Taiwan.However, if it is extended to maintain tension and pressure, it is decided to continue the investigation. Although there is an impression that it does not affect the rhythm of the Taiwan election and decides to delay the time, but because the results and sanctions measures have not been announced, the voters must know after the election.The effect seems to wait for the election results.In any case, it is difficult to clarify that the election has nothing to do.

Secondly, the mainland government launched the cross -strait integration of the Fujian Demonstration Zone to try 21 measures first, based on Xiamen and Fuzhou as the base, and "equal treatment" with the two islands of Taiwan and Matsu, respectively.Frontier and united front line.The fusion demonstration area is released on the eve of the presidential election of Taiwan, and it will inevitably be labeled into an involvement in the Taiwan election, or it is regarded as the "action case of one country, two systems, Taiwan."

Finally, it is declared that the operation of the economic cooperation framework (ECFA) of the cross -strait economic cooperation framework (ECFA) is claimed to be suspended.Song Tao, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China on September 22, made his first statement on the "Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" and declared that "supporting competent authorities to study suspension of ECFA" and reiterated all because of "resolutely opposing interference between Taiwan independence and external forces."From Zhu Fenglian, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council to Director Song Tao, repeatedly emphasized that the level is getting higher and higher.Therefore, it can be inferred that once Lai Qingde, who claims to be "pragmatic Taiwan independence", has won the election, the operation of the ECFA after the election may become "a comprehensive emptiness in the inside and outside."

Before the presidential election, the mainland's policy of issuing the policy of Taiwan, "objective" may impact the Taiwan election policy debate and cause the election situation, affecting voters' voting behavior;, Political tools for interpretation and operation.However, if Taiwan's understanding of Taiwan's policy on Taiwan has fallen into the "only election theory" policy thinking, it will lose a rational understanding of the nature and structure of cross -strait policies; it will highlight the lack of self -confidence and ability to deal with cross -strait issues.

The mainland has repeatedly claimed that it has never been involved in the Taiwan election. If the results of the trade barriers are now announced and decided to impose trade sanctions on Taiwan."Anti -China -Bao Tai" route.However, this can provide the policy debate opportunities of various candidates in Taiwan to clarify the advantages and disadvantages of cross -strait policy choices, which is conducive to pulling voters back to the sense of political reality.

But related to the investigation of trade barriers and announced the suspension of part or all operations of ECFA. During the selection of the time selection of the time selection, it will maintain the influence of cross -strait relations after the selection.It is for political accounts rather than completely economic accounts.If the election results are blue and white, and no trade barriers sanction measures and continue to maintain ECFA operations; or green win, it has attracted economic sanctions such as trade barriers, which just proves that the mainland starts trade barriers and claims to suspend ECFA's political motivation.

The author is an associate professor at the Department of Public Affairs of Fo Guang University and Director of Chengzheng College