Source: Bloomberg
China's shrinkage pressure is slightly alleviated. This week, data will be released may show that credit demand has risen, which further increases the signs of stabilization of China's economy.
The data released on the weekend show that the consumer price index rose year -on -year in August. Although the amplitude is small, it has reversed the situation of falling in July; the decline in factory prices has narrowed year -on -year.Analysts are expected to announce the increase in loans last month this week.
"Many data we see now show that the economic downturn may be slowing down in the next few months," said Yang Yuting, chief economist at the Greater China of Australia and New Bank.China's decline in exports and manufacturing has also eased."This is more stable, not a complete rebound."
The world's second largest economy's continuous real estate weakness and confidence have dragged down the economic recovery, bringing risks to the government's annual growth goal of about 5%, and the government is trying to stabilize the economy.Previous July data showed that consumer prices fell to shrinking, and the monthly loan fell to a 14 -year low, and the government subsequently increased its efforts to revive the economy.
These support measures, including reducing policy loan interest rates, and mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios of buying houses may help.Goldman Sachs economist estimates that the influence of government policies is equivalent to about 60 base points of GDP, which is 0.6%.
But investors continue to wait for a stronger sign of recovery.These efforts have not stopped the decline in the stock market. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has fallen by more than 10%compared with the high point of January this year.RMB also fell to the weakest level since 2007.
China recently stated that insurance companies will be easier to invest in domestic stocks.The CSI 300 index rose only 0.4%on Monday on Monday, stopping the four consecutive declines.The indicators of the Hong Kong listing of China -listed shares fell by 1.9%.
According to the quantitative analysis of Morgan Stanley, the average low-matching head inch of the LONG-only of the Global Pure Multiple Fund returned to the level before the rise before the end of 2022 and after the epidemic.
China Securities Journal quoted analysts that the new credit in August may rise compared with July, and enterprises will still be the main support items.However, Yang Yuting, Australia and New Bank, said that many real estate easing measures will take effect until the end of the month, which may mean that the scale of social financing will not increase significantly.
Analysts are paying attention to the clues of the potential to bottomed out, so they still have to be cautious.
Goldman Sachs analyst wrote in a Sunday research report that the recent policy "may lead to a short -term rebound in real estate transactions, but not enough to stabilize the real estate market." They expect that if residential sales continue to decline and increase their growth further, they will slow down further., Will further relax the policy, including interest rate cuts or measures to support the real estate market.
After becoming the main force of economic recovery earlier this year, there are now signs that the growth of the service industry is weakening.This implies that more policy support may be required to boost family expenditure.
The pressure of shrinkage is not completely eliminated: the year -on -year change of the consumer price (CPI) index of residents is still far lower than the official target of about 3%of the government settings.
