Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Liu Yanting
Recently, Sino -Australian relations have made new progress.
On September 7, China and Australia held a high -level dialogue in Beijing, and it had been three years since the previous 2020 dialogue between 2020.The Australian delegation was led by the former Labor Party Minister Craig Emerson, and the former foreign minister of Liberal Party Julie Bishop also attended. It shows that the Australian two parties' political support for the dialogue, the rest of the members came fromThe fields of enterprises, governments, academic and media are people who are familiar with China -Australia relations; Chinese delegations are led by Li Zhaoxing, the honorary chairman of the Chinese People's Foreign Foreign Affairs Society, Li Zhaoxing.
On the 7th, Australian Prime Minister Albanis also held a meeting with Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang with the Asian Safe Conference.After the meeting, Albanis said that he had a "frank and constructive discussion" with Li Qiang. Both sides welcomed the progress of "stable bilateral relations" and will also visit China within the year.Judging from the sequential development, this is the first visit to China since 2016.
From a high -level dialogue, the meeting of the Prime Minister of China Australia, and the Australian Prime Minister confirmed to visit China, China -Australia relations have experienced shocks in recent years, and there are obvious signs of recovery.And this change is considered to be the direct result of the Australian policy after the Albanis government came to power in May 2022: In July 2022, Australian New Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian held the 20th National Group (G20) held in Bali Island (G20).During the summit, Wang Yi was met; in November, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Australian Prime Minister Albanis in Bali, Indonesia; December, Wang Yi and Huang Yingxian met in Beijing;The official ban; the Australian Minister of Trade Farrell visited China in May, and then the aforementioned new progress.
and such a change reflects the pragmatism logic of Australia's policy on China under the governance of the Albanis government: although it regards China as a strategic challenge, it also looks at its economic and trade connection with China.
Observing several investigations made by the Institute of International Policy in the Institute of International Policy in Australia in 2023, you can see the complexity of Australian public opinion on China.
Taking the survey of "Australian Vital Reservoir in the next ten years" as an example, "cyber attacks from other countries" are the most concerned things in Australia's public opinion, and up to 68%of interviewees believe this; the second one is ranked second;The threat is "a military conflict between China and the United States due to Taiwan", which has a 64%public opinion foundation. This data has only 35%in 2022. It canChina Foreign Policy "" ranked fourth in this survey, with a 59%public opinion foundation slightly lower than the third -ranked "North Korea Nuclear Plan" (60%), but the "China Foreign Policy" was still 65 in 2022%Of public opinion, this year to 59%should be influenced by the Albanis government's relief of China and the thawing of China -Australia relations.
From the above data, it can be found that the Australian public opinion is very concerned about the Sino -US military conflict. Among them, there should be the emotional background that is threatened by fear of China, but does not want to excessively involve.Other surveys of the Roy International Policy Research Institute in 2023 also have a similar trend.
For example, in the investigation of "If a military conflict occurred in China and the United States" in 2023, more than half of the respondents (56%) believed that Australia should maintain neutral%Of interviewees believe that Australia should support the United States, but this data also decreased by four percentage points from 2022.If the title is focused on "if the Chinese mainland invades Taiwan, will you support a series of response measures with the United States?" Most respondents (80%) expressed their support for "accepting Taiwan's refugees into Australia", and 76%will also receive 76%.Visitors have expressed support for "Australia's Implementation of Economic and Foreign Sanctions on China", 64%support "Australia's transportation weapons and military supplies to the Taiwan government", 61%support "dispatching the Australian Navy to prevent the implementation of Chinese mainland in Taiwan".The options that have been supported by less than half are "sending the Australian army to Taiwan to fight against the PLA" (42%).
For example, "Whether China will constitute a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years", as many as 75%of the respondents believe that China ’s“ very ”and“ some ”may constitute a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years. This data may be.The same (75%) in 2022, and significantly higher than 2018 (45%); "Who is the best friend of Australia in Asia" survey, Japan (44%) ranked again, leading the second one, leading the second one, the second one, the second one, the second one, the second one.India (16%), China is second with 7%data, but reviewed in 2016, China ranked first in the same survey; in the "emotional thermometer", New Zealand became the top of 85 °, followed by 75 °, followed by 75 °.Japan and Britain, China has a lower data of 33 °. This reading has stabilized since 2021, but in 2018, it still has a high temperature of 58 °.
However, as mentioned earlier, the thawing of China -Australia after the Albanis government came to power, which affected the transfer of public opinion to a certain extent.For example, in response to the "potential military base of China in the Pacific", most respondents (87%) stated that they were "very worried" or "some worries" China may open a military base in the Pacific Island country.The proportion of the year is not far (88%), but the number of people who means "very worried" has decreased by 18 percentage points.In the "Trust of Global Power", Japan (85%), Britain (84%), France (79%), and the United States (61%) are the top four in Australian interviewees, China (15%) And Russia (8%) at the bottom again, becoming the most trusted global power in the respondents, but for China, this number has increased slightly over 2022 (12%).
In response to the recent recovery of China -Australia, including the high -level meetings of both parties and the import of Australian products in China, the Australian public opinion also has a relatively positive response.In the survey of "what is relatively improved in China -Australia relations", more than half of the respondents of (56%) stated that the restoration of ministerial contact with the national interest to Australia was "very" or "some", and the rest of the people were while others, while the rest of the people were while others, while the rest of the people were while others, while the rest of the people were while others, while the rest of the people wereIt is divided into two factions, one believes that this will not affect Australia's national interests (21%), and the other thinks that it will have a "very negative" or "some negative" impact on Australia's national interests (20%).
In summary, Australia's public opinion overall prevention of China, but does not excessively oppose the government's improvement of Sino -Australian relations. Observing the causes of the middle of the middle of the country, in addition to worrying about being involved in the war of the Taiwan Strait, economic trade is of course the key.
After the signing of the China -Australia Free Trade Agreement in 2015, the two parties exempted from each other's import and export tariffs, and Australia also found a stable market for its own iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas.But starting in 2020, Sino -Australian relations have been severely frustrated: then the then Prime Minister Morrison first refers to China on the source of crown disease, and canceled the "Belt and Road" agreement between Victoria and China.Strike Beijing is obviously echoing the "blocking of China" initiated by the United States.
The unwilling to show a series of sanctions on Australia: First of all, in May 2020, 80%of Australian Micathard Anti -dumping and balanced taxes were issued.Going to Australia ", then arrested CGTN's Australian host Cheng Lei on the grounds of" leaking national secrets ", and suspended beef imported from Australia on the grounds of" pendant disease ".In October that year, China began to make domestic textile factories "avoid" Australian cotton, and stopped importing Australian lobster and coal in November.Since then, Beijing has ruled that the existence of Australian wines has been dumping and levied a maximum of 212%of temporary anti -dumping duties.
Of course, Australia will not sit still, but to complain to the WTO in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and levy a balanced tax on the Australian barley (DS598) and wine (DS602).butBefore the results were released, Australia had suffered losses due to Beijing sanctions, not only losing the largest export market of barley, but also seriously relying on the Australian cotton industry that exported to China.The second largest export market.From this perspective, although Australia has benefited from the "encirclement of China", it has become a member of the "AUKUS" (AUKUS) in the United States to mobilize Indo -Pacific's layout, but at the same timeSevere blood loss, and temporarily unable to find the prescription to stop bleeding.
Because of this, after the Albanis government came to power, Australia's attitude towards China eased, it was hoped that Beijing would be merciful in trade sanctions.For example, after Albanis met with Xi Jinping in November 2022, it hinted at the later APEC Economic Leadership Conference that Australia "extremely impossible" supports Taiwan to join CPTPP. Soon after, Chinese companies resumed imported Australian coal in January 2023.; In April 2023, as China -Australia entered a negotiation against the "barley dumping", Australian Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian and Minister of Trade Farrer also announced the suspension of the incident on the WTO appeal, while China restored Australian barley imports in August; 5Yuefarell visited China, met with Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao, and said that the interview was "trade in China in all fields in Australia".Australian wood.
From the perspective of the above development, China -Australia relations do have signs of bottoming back.Judging from the internal and external situations of Australia, this rebound is probably limited.
First of all, the internal situation.As mentioned earlier, judging from the latest polls of the Roy International Policy Research Institute in 2023, the sense of public opinion in Australia's public opinion and the court 10 years ago.The amount is more than the economic partner. Even if the Albanis government's position in China is relatively pragmatic, it is impossible for the political and economic costs of the "excessive anti -China" to stop loss, but it is impossible to completely ignore public opinion and make a large position correction.
Then the external environment.As we all know, the reason why Sino -Australian relations have been severely low in recent years is that the Morrison government chooses to echo the United States' "blocking China".direction.From this perspective, no matter how pragmatic the Albanis government is, Australia will eventually be anchored in the Indo -Pacific countries of the "American camp"., Exit the American -led military projects such as Aukus.In simple terms, the more clever China -US balance is expected, and "major concessions" may be far away.
But in any case, the tension between China -Australia relations is slow, which is in line with the political expectations of the two countries today.Although the United States will not stop mobilizing Australia to block China, Beijing has shown its ability to regulate and influence Sino -US -Australian relations through 2020.After the bottom -line test of the past few years, the future Sino -US -Australian triangle relations will move forward in a continuous but less destructive way.
