The oligopoly economy is a clear label engraved on the Indian economy, which has been widely criticized by the domestic people and the international community in India.Giant companies can lead large breakthrough projects, but the high concentration of the industry is easier to kill competition, resulting in a wider range of private investment easily squeezed out. SMEs continue to be in micro -state, and market competition is greatly suppressed.

Indian Prime Minister Modi recently participated in the BRICS Business Forum in Johannesburg, South Africa, not only again high -profile officials to declare India, the fastest growing in the world, but also confidently stated that it will become the world economy in the next few years.Growth engine.According to Modi's previous economic development goals, India ’s economic aggregate will reach US $ 5 trillion in 2025. In 2032, it surpasses Japan to become the third largest economy in the world. By 2047, the 100th anniversary of the national independence of the country will become adeveloped country.The vision seems to be magnificent and seductive, but it is not easy to achieve the achievement of any stage of any stage.

Modi has achieved an average annual increase of 5.3%annually since its administration in 2014 to the present, and the annual average annual increase in GDP (GDP) has an average annual increase of 5.3%, with a nominal growth rate of more than 10%. More importantly, under the rule of Modi, India has surpassed France successively in France.With the United Kingdom, it was promoted to the fifth largest economy in the world with a economic scale of $ 3.4 trillion last year.According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, India has reached US $ 3.73 trillion this year, and there is indeed the potential and stamina for continued high growth. Among them, the demographic dividend can be said to be the biggest advantage of the Indian economy.

India is currently the first population of the population, with a total of 1.425 billion. It is predicted that the population of the country will increase to 1.522 billion in 2036. The advantage of population dividends is not only reflected in the number.About 60%of the population under the age of age, so it seems that India is the country with the largest proportion of the global working age population.

Filtering labor resources are conducive to reducing operating costs and increasing competitiveness. At the same time, it can cultivate a strong consumer market and enhance the vitality of the economy.Standard Purcell predicts that by 2031, the Indian consumer market will soar from US $ 2.3 trillion in 2022 to $ 5.2 trillion.More importantly, the huge population advantage attracted multinational companies.Data show that since Modi ruling, India's actual use of foreign investment has risen from US $ 24.3 billion in 2013 to $ 71 billion in 2022, an increase of 290%. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows exceeded more than 960 billion U.S. dollars.The environment rose from 142 in 2013 to 63 last year, and its influence was as possible. Leading companies such as Apple, Tesla, and Samsung have settled in India.

The lineup of the cluster of the multinational company is reflected, and the local industry in India has also opened a competitive matrix.

India's generic drugs are well -known worldwide. The production of drugs is currently the third place in the world, and the output of vaccine accounts for 60%of the world. High -tech industries such as aerospace technology and electronic technology are also among the top in the world.A detector that landed on the moon's Antarctic, the successful lunar landing of the monthly ship 3 detector, once again let the world witness the extraordinary Indian aerospace technology.On the other hand, India's service industry currently accounts for more than 60%. The core support behind it is the highly developed information technology and software industry. As the world's largest IT service and software outsourcing country, India occupies 60%of the world's software outsourcing marketEssence

Based on the strong competitiveness of the field of software development and information technology, the Indian government is trying to promote the digital industry and plans to launch more than 100 digital change projects in the next five years.In this regard, 2023/2024 is preparing to invest 10 trillion yuan in Indian rupees (about S $ 164 billion) to support digital technology startups.In order to focus on the establishment and development of artificial intelligence, fintech and other projects.Once the digital transformation is successful, it will play a key role in the full layout and the final rise of the next "manufacturing".

"Made in India" Qi is gradually thickest

Due to the domestic industrial structure, India's manufacturing industry accounts for only 10%, and the proportion of global is as less as 3%. Modi has proposed the "Indian Manufacturing" plan since taking office.25%of GDP.To this end, on the one hand, the Modi government has continuously improved the tariffs of imported products such as consumer electronics, and more than 4,500 categories involved in the previous and forth; on the other hand, the Indian government has continuously launched the import ban from smart TVs, laptops and tablets in the past two years.At the same time, a huge fiscal incentive plan was introduced to attract overseas relevant manufacturers to invest in construction factories in India.For local start -up manufacturing companies, the Indian government not only gives tax benefits and rewards, but also reimbursed the air tickets they participated in international business activities.

It seems that what the Indian government is doing is indeed a little unreasonable, but through the aforementioned series of operations, it has achieved 100%local assembly of TV.The above is from local manufacturing. In addition, with the gradual landing of the "Made in India" plan, the confidence of India's economic growth may become more stable and thick.

Of course, prediction is just a subjective inference, excluding various irreversible incidents such as financial crisis and epidemic.It may be transformed into the most powerful factor disadvantage.To be precise, the demographic dividend should also include human capital content, and the latter highlights the target driver of population and resource efficiency and value -added. As far as India is concerned, the human capital in population dividends is obviously insufficient.

On the one hand, India's adult illiterate population is as high as 280 million, and only 14%of the number of vocational training among the existing labor force. The proportion of formal technical workers accounts for as low as 3%, and the overall labor quality is low.It will inevitably affect the pace of corporate innovation and the improvement of labor productivity; on the other hand, India's population fertility rate has fallen from 5.3 during the peak to now below 2.1. Thereforepressure.

Structural imbalance is a big flaw

Structural imbalance is a major flaw in the Indian economy.On the one hand, the agricultural infrastructure is seriously scarce and backward, and it is frequently attacked and damaged by the natural disasters. The agricultural sector has absorbed 45%of the employment population in the country.In the terminal industry, it is difficult for agriculture to get advanced factors formed by the transfer of population.On the other hand, although the service industry plays the main driving force of economic growth, the manufacturing industry is raised and required for fake time, and the huge faults in the industry have strongly suppressed the employment tension that can further absorb labor.For more than 7%, the urban youth unemployment rate exceeds 20%.

The key to

The problem is that when more unemployed people are thrown into the market, the degree of poverty is also intensified. According to the United Nations World Population Outlook 2022 report, India's population below the poverty line is 780 millionThere are also 228 million absolute poverty, accounting for the largest proportion, and as long as poverty exists, it will inevitably slow down the normal steps of economic growth, and it will even become a huge risk factors that interfere with and hinder economic growth.

The oligopoly economy is a clear label engraved on the Indian economy, which has been widely criticized by the domestic people and the international community in India.At present, six giant companies including Xinshi Group and Adida Group have controlled 25%of India's port production capacity, 45%cement output, 33%steel output, 60%of telecommunications users, and more than 45%of coal import control., Giant companies can lead large breakthrough projects, but the high concentration of the industry is more likely to kill competition, resulting in a wider range of private investment easily squeezed out. SMEs continue to be in a micro state.Competitive activity is greatly suppressed.

More importantly, behind the expansion of the monopoly consortium, there is the fact that the gap between the rich and the poor is continuously expanded.Statistics show that in the past 10 years, 40%of the wealth created by India has flowed to 1%of the population, and only 3%of the wealth flows to the lowest population.India's richest 10%of current population controls 80%of the country's wealth, while the richest 1%of the people have 58%of India's wealth.

The seriousness of the

problem is that the disparity between the rich and the poor is also closely related to India's surname system and religious factors. The influence of the latter two has been deeply ingrained, which means that India is difficult to iron the gap between the rich and the poor.The disparity of the plate knots will reduce the credibility of the government and the national governance capacity of the ruling governor., Frequent staged, the repeated spasm and pain of the economic body are self -evident.

The author is a director and professor of economics in the Chinese Market Society