"What needs most now is to stimulate residents' consumption, that is, use all channels that can be reasonably, legal, compliant, and economic theory to send money into the pockets of residents."
On July 8th, at the 2023 Qingdao China Wealth Forum, Cai Yan, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, chief expertNormal state, since it is a new normal, new practices must be needed.Therefore, he believes that macroeconomic policies should have new means and new objects, and this new object is consumption.
He said that before the epidemic, the Chinese economy has shifted to a model with consumer demand as the main driving force, and the consumer demand for residents accounts for about 70 %, but the epidemic situation has destroyed the development of the development that wasas is changing to a certain extent.path.He believes that "consumption has become a key block and difficulty that hinders the smooth recovery of China's economy." This view is condensing more consensus.Based on this, he believes that the stimulus object of China's macroeconomic policy must shift from investment to consumption, which can directly correspond to the blocking points and shortcomings of the real economy.In short, Cai Yan believes that as far as the present China is concerned, "stimulating consumption has reached the time."
Of course, his view is not everyone's recognition.Lin Yifu, a well -known economist in China, said publicly: "There is a saying that the economic growth of investment stimulating (China) is not sustainable, and the economic growth of consumption is changed.Drive to mislead China. "
In terms of stimulation, Lin Yifu is obviously not alone.Recently, Wu Xiaoqiu, former vice president and economist of Renmin University of China, mentioned in an interview with the media: The idea of not using domestic demand to replace foreign demand!He said: "We want to expand our domestic demand, but not just the word stimulation. Internal demand cannot replace external needs, we cannot have this idea." He further pointed out that "not to mention that expanding domestic demand is conditional."These conditions include: 1. Good employment rate.People are under tremendous pressure on employment. They are worried that they have not worked someday and someday for layoffs, which is definitely not conducive to expanding domestic demand; 2. growth income; 3. Perfect and sound social security system.If there is a lack of such a system, even if the people make some money, it is definitely unrealistic to spend it now. The reason is very simple.
From the perspective of Wu Xiaoqiu, the domestic demand he refers to is the final consumption of residents.In the opinion of Wu Xiaoqiu, under the circumstances of these three basic conditions, it is definitely not an effective policy to hardly stimulate residents' consumption.He said: "So some scholars and I have different views. They often say that they want to issue consumer vouchers and even issue money. I said it is really not this." In simple terms, in Wu XiaoqiuUnder the basic conditions of expanding consumption, it is lacking to promote economic growth by expanding consumption to promote economic growth. It is not sustainable.
I am deeply recognized for Wu Xiaoqiu's point of view.
Many years ago, I published an article entitled by Guangming.com, which is published in Guangming Daily, China, which is much more troublesome than the United States.As long as the problem of insufficient liquidity in its financial system is solved, then its troubles are basically solved, but China is far from being so lucky '. After the export road is cut off, what it needs is the domestic market.; For Europe and the United States, they need time, but for China, there is no enough time at all, because building a domestic market that is sufficient to match the current capacity needs too much work. "
So far, China's development is still too concentrated in investment and exports, and domestic demand is seriously insufficient.There is a question. Why is China's industrial structure deforming?Why can't domestic demand be mentioned?The reason lies in the lack of social security system and the growth of disposable income.
The social security system is not sound or even lacking. The overall salary and disposable income growth has grown slowly. Coupled with the ahead of time, self -protection awareness, etc., it will determine that housing, education, medical expenditure and affordable savings dominate the national consumption and investment structure of the people.And behavior, thereby further exacerbating the decrease in the daily consumption expenditure of the people, this phenomenon will inevitably lead to further malformations and insufficient domestic demand.In order to solve the fundamental path of China's economic crisis, the key to the focus of economic growth should be turned to consumption, and the fundamental key to achieve this goal lies in the establishment and improvement of the social security system.But the problem is that establishing a social security system is by no means a work that can be completed in a short time.
Yes, the establishment and improvement of the social security system, in China, is a huge problem in itself, especially the population dividend cycle is turning into a population deficit cycle.According to the current population structure of China, in the next ten years, the support structure of the social security system will be supported from the current average of one person per three, and quickly transforms to one person for each two.The solution can only improve labor productivity, and the improvement of productivity is mainly due to technological progress and improvement of resource allocation efficiency.These are about the system level of the supply side.Therefore, the biggest problem in China's economy still comes from the supply side.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
