Recently, the People's Bank of China, the Chinese Customs, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Ministry of Finance each released China's economic statistics in the first half of the year, and many major indicators have grown weakly.If considering the low base effect brought by the city in Shanghai for more than two months last year, economic growth in June, second and first year of this year was even more optimistic, and some indicators even had negative growth.For example, the total value of import and export goods in the first half of the year decreased by 6.7%and 3.2%year -on -year, respectively, and a larger decrease in June, a decrease of 6.8%and 12.4%year -on -year.A year -on -year fell 20.9%; the consumer price index (CPI) in June was flat year -on -year, a decrease of 0.2%month -on -month, the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 5.4%year -on -year, and the month -on -month decreased by 0.8%.But worried about shrinkage.
The biggest problem is that China is expected to be pessimistic and inadequate in the future.Frankly speaking, this signal was clearly displayed on October 24, 2022.On the day, the three major stock indexes in China fell more than 2%, of which the Shanghai Index fell 2.02%, the Shenzhen Index fell 2.05%, and the Chuang Index fell 2.43%.Refers to a sharp fall of 6.36%, the decline is the largest since the 2008 global financial crisis; the US stocks in the United States generally plummeted, among which Pinduoduo plummeted by 33.47%.
Three years of severe epidemic prevention, the starting point is good, but the dynamic adjustment has been adjusted for half a year later.Moreover, the self -injury during the epidemic prevention is too severe, and the industries with trillion yuan such as platforms, education and training, and real estate are too strict, excessive, and the timing is not right. The time is not right. In -depth employment and economy, it is even worse than the epidemic.Private enterprises have become a bird of shocking. It is impossible to appease as a document, a document, and a discussion overnight.
The solution of a considerable part of the economist is still based on the perspective of "country", focusing on more positive monetary policies and fiscal policies, ignoring the legitimate interests and needs of "people".
Of course, the internal and external environments have provided greater space and probability for China's further reduction and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.However, due to the poor employment and income, it may not be able to stimulate private investment and consumption as expected.Over the past year, the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates and reduced standards. In the first half of the year, private fixed asset investment in the first half of the year still decreased by 0.2%year -on -year.Among them, residents' deposits increased by 1.1.91 trillion yuan.
There are three restrictions on fiscal policy
The fiscal policy continues to make efforts, which are limited by three constraints: First, the marginal benefits are decreasing, the high -quality projects are getting less and less, the interest is getting more and more difficult to pay, and more debt is formed after short -term growth;It is inevitable that the efficiency is inefficient, the political performance projects and impulses are repeatedly banned, and waste and corruption are shocking; 3. Local debt is difficult to sustain.According to data from the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of 2022, the balance of local government debt was 35 trillion yuan.On the surface, within the limit of 376,47.4 billion yuan approved by the National People's Congress, the real situation is that the local government may not have the courage to complete the debt. Whether the local urban investment company can penetrate the years of debt throughout, audit, and supervision is also doubts.Some poor counties in the west, adding new local government bonds in the past two years, are first used to maintain basic operations, ensure opening doors and salaries, and have been unable to take care of investment development.
The author may wish to broaden his mind and tilt through social policy.Employment, income, housing, medical care, pension, education, education, and helping difficulties are both the livelihood project and the people's heart project. It usually involves the people's most concerned, urgent, and most realistic interests.Tables and roadmaps, make great determination and spend a lot of effort to solve it.The improvement of the worries after the improvement of the livelihood is conducive to the general benefit of the people to enhance their confidence in themselves, the future, and the country. Sustainable consumption, sustainable growth, and sustainable revival can be achieved.In the "rich country and weak people".
Marx's keen insight into the structural contradictions of early capitalism, which promoted the improvement of capitalist countries.There are many genres in Marxism, and some are selling dog meat on the head of sheep, and some are just pseudo -science. Marx claims many times before his life that he only knows that he is not such a "Marxist".So far, the closest social policy and fairness and justice are not necessarily the country governed by the Communist Party, but a Nordic capitalist country.If socialist countries do not focus on solving people's livelihood problems, and do not seek legitimate interests for the disadvantaged groups and general working strata for the underlying level, there will be no legitimacy. It will inevitably be alienated into special interest groups and will be cast aside by the people sooner or later.
Multi -strategy to reverse confidence in parallel
Insufficient confidence for the time being, it can be parallel, reversing correction, and realizing fairness and justice.Taking consumption as an example, some economists are still calling for consumer vouchers. Last year, Shanghai Fengcheng entered the end. The author also called for it, but the current judgment of one -time consumer vouchers has been unsuitable. The better way is to formulate and implement it as soon as possible as soon as possible.National income multiplication plans allow Chinese people to have stable expectations for future revenue.
Taking youth employment as an example, the economy is weak and cannot provide enough employment positions. It can promote some good experience in colleges and universities, and provide alma mater assistants, research, and management positions for fresh graduates.In the year, providing living expenses and preferential accommodation.There is no need for full -time, which is convenient for students to have time to find jobs, postgraduate entrance examinations, and compilations, and can also place more graduates.
Taking the population as an example, it is difficult for youth to survive themselves. How can it be willing to be again or again?The government should think in other ways to introduce the corresponding support policies for each fertility bottleneck, including but not limited to: women's equal employment; more tax reduction for enterprises with more fertility employees;Three years into compulsory education) and so on.
Taking real estate as an example, we must adhere to "housing and not frying", and gradually eliminate previous large bubbles and financial attributes to meet rigid demand and improve demand.Earlier investment in investment and improper profits of speculation slowly crowded out through the New Deal, including but not limited to: new real estate tax, inheritance tax, gift tax on the number of holdings and per capita areas, and increased second -hand housing transactions.Various taxes.
Taking pensions as an example, two 70%should be gradually achieved.That is, the proportion of state -owned enterprises, especially state -owned enterprises, has been gradually increased to 70%, and 70%of the profit paid by state -owned enterprises will be divided into the National Social Security Fund.The whole people benefit.Each year, the SASAC across the country will announce the profitability of state -owned enterprises and increase transparency.
Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of 1978, the theme of the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Mainland Government's Central Committee has been reform and it has become a customary.The outside world is looking forward to the high expectations of the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Instead, the author is looking forward to higher expectations for the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. I hope the theme is deepening reform and opening up.Feel the ambitions and hard work of the new team.Openness is actually included in the reform. It is better for the law to make a single column and highlight its status and role. Just as the Chinese are used to the "constitution and law", the constitution is also a law. Because it is a special fundamental Dafa, it is a single column.
Most of the Third Plenary Session in October. Based on the current economic fatigue, it can be considered to be held early to mid -September to stay for the fourth quarter to play the economic defense war (ie GDP) "guarantee 5").More time, and the series of supporting policies should not be launched after the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Central Committee, and some can be introduced in advance.
In fact, it has been done.Including the recent notification of the applicable period 4 and 8 of the real estate policy and measures (that is, "Article 16 of Finance" on November 11 last year, extended to December 31, 2024;The opinions of economic development and growth have a total of 31 articles; 13 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued policies and measures to promote home consumption, a total of 11 articles; national development and reformThe commission and other departments have issued ten policies and measures to promote automobile consumption and twelve policies and measures to promote electronic products.
Wan Ma Qi is mournful, and public policies need to be more sufficient, loose, and more transparent.The more the truth, the more clear the consensus, the more the consensus, the more and more arguing.Different opinions are normal, and different interests are normal. Legal games and reasonable compromises. All parties go to the middle and do not have to build cars behind the elite of small circles.In public debate and trial and error, consensus and compromise are gradually formed, so that the resistance is smaller, and it is also convenient for the public to supervise.This approach is in line with the times and public opinion. Whether it is the definition of the "public domain" in German philosopher Habermas, or the concept of "governance" advocated by the United Nations, or the "whole process of people's democracy" proposed by the mainland government, it has common in common.Where.
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
