Comment: The key to Chinas economic recovery is in private investment

Source: Zhongshi Electronic News

Wangbao Society Review

China ’s economic growth in the second quarter of this year was 6.3%, which was only 0.8%compared with the previous quarter, and below the market’ s expectations of 7.1%.Although the official emphasized that China's economy has resumed good and has full toughness, compared with 3%last year, 4.5%of the growth rate of the first quarter of this year, and major European and American economies falling around 1%, China's economic performance is remarkable.However, the outside world believes that the epidemic was affected by the epidemic in the same period last year. The base period was extremely low. In the end, it was only disappointed. It was disappointing, and even suspected that China might have fallen into a mud.

Consumption investment export continuous operation

Suspiciousness is unreasonable.The weak economic recovery force, coupled with the increase in prices close to zero, shows that the internal and external demand is not stubborn. It is intensifying China's economic difficulties, but it may fall into a shrinking dilemma.However, this does not mean that it will inevitably occur.There is still a distance from the growth rate of more than 5%.

Although economic data in the first half of the year is not as good as market expectations, the types of fire consumption of domestic demand still seem to have burned very much.In the first half of the year, the increase in consumption expenditure in the first half of the year contributed 77.2%to the Chinese economy, which was more than doubled from 32.8%in 2022.In 2021 (economic growth of 8.1%), which is also a major consumption after the epidemic consumption, the proportion of consumption contribution is only 65.4%, which seems to prove that the recovery of China's consumer market is worth looking forward to.

In addition, in terms of industries, as the epidemic is unsealed and daily life gradually resumes normal, the growth trend of the service industry has also accelerated significantly.Especially the service industry, such as accommodation, dining, information transmission and technical services, leasing and business activities, which are highly related to the epidemic. The recovery force is even more amazing., 10.1%.If you further observe the service industry's procurement manager index, you can see it clearly that from January to June, it all fell at the stage of prosperity expansion. It is obvious that the domestic demand consumption mainly based on the service industry is still strong.

It's just that in order to drive the Chinese economy with a scale of more than 100MM, it is obviously not enough to rely on consumption. It is also easy to be unbalanced.In other words, even if the consumption fire is ignited, if the investment and exports are turned off, it may not help.Since 2021, it has been impacted by the real estate regulation policy, and China's fixed asset investment has fallen all the way. The latest numbers announced in June have 3.8%, which has reached the lowest two and a half years. Among them, the private investment part has even declined by 0.2%.Not to mention, the weakness of Europe and the United States has dragged down the recovery of global terminal demand. In addition, the US -China trade war continues, which has deepened China's export concerns.

The low investment and export atmosphere, in addition to affecting corporate investment decisions and confidence, will also suppress economic performance. This is also the key to this wave of economic recovery as expected.In the past, in the era of China's high -speed growth, the three engines were basically founded by consumption, investment and exports at the same time. Among them, investment characters were the most critical.

Give the private economy attach importance to private enterprises

Ten years (2003 ～ 2012), Hu Wen's main political gold, an average of 53.6%of the investment proportion of investment to the economy, not only far exceeding consumption and net export contributions, but also successfully led the Chinese economy to take off, setting an average double -digit growth of more than two digits or morepeak.It is not revealed that it is by no means simply investing in the stimulus and pulling effect of the economy, but compared to consumption and exports, the investment is an irreplaceable role in the process of China's high -speed growth process.

This also means that in the face of the expected economic recovery pace, if you want to vibrate, you may still have to invest in heavy investment, especially private investment.The logic behind it is not difficult to understand.Today, the momentum of consumption fire is still strong, and the policy does not need to be too much. As long as the temperature continues, the economy can be properly injected.The exports are weak in external demand. It is a major environmental issue. It is difficult for the economic lifting effect.Under this premise, investment naturally becomes the core of governance that is the most capable and can produce the maximum benefits.

Among them, the inspiration of private investment vitality is even more important.Private enterprises have become the main entities of the Chinese economy. As of the end of May this year, the proportion of private entrepreneurs has climbed to 92.4%, and its contribution to the overall economy, employment and taxation has long been irreplaceable.Within a month, the China Development and Reform Commission held three consecutive private enterprises for symposiums. The State Council issued "Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Private Economy" on July 19.Urgent and severity.

However, policy proposals are proposed, but the problem is often not here, but whether there are specific implementation that allow private enterprises to truly enjoy policy benefits. More importantly, it is to rebuild and consolidate the trust relationship between private enterprises and the government.After all, from the past experience, even if there is a central declaration, the flow of resources or capital is generally more preferred by state -owned enterprises. Private enterprises are usually forgotten groups and can only be self -reliant.How to do it is the top priority of Beijing.