Six states on the Malay Peninsula will be held in August.Malaysia adopts a British -style parliamentary democratic government. Each federal or state government has a maximum of five years (from the first day of the parliamentary meeting after the election), but it can be disbanded and re -elected at any time.On the 11 states on the Malay Peninsula, the state elections are traditionally selected to be held on the same day as the federal election, which facilitates elections and voters;Usually, the state selection is usually selected.But in recent years, first of all, the state government of Malacca and Johor has only been in office for more than three years. Because of their respective political changes, the state election was held before the national election last year.The above -mentioned six states went against it and refused to dissolve the State Parliament with Congress. Instead, they chose to hold state elections when the five -year term is about to expire.
Because these states are held more than eight months after the federal unity government governed, and these states accounted for almost half of the total number of Malaysian state, to a certain extent, they were regarded as a severe political early political beginning of unity government.Test.After passing the exam, the unity government should be able to complete the five -year term smoother; if the test cannot be passed, it will fall at any time.As for the standard of passing, it is generally considered to be judged from the number of ruling states.Before the election, there are Sanzhou (Penang, Selangor, and Samililan) are governed by the unity government (mainly Pakatan Harapan), and the three states (Kedah, Dengjialou, Ji Lan Dan) are governed by the opposition party -level opposition at the federal level.Form the balance of three to three.After the state is elected, if the proportion of governing continues to maintain three to three, the unity of the government barely passed the level.If you can capture one of the State of the National Alliance (saying that it is Kedah, because the other two states are the Fortress of the Islamic Party of the National Alliance's main party), and form a four -to -two advantage, the unity of the government will be stable in the short term.
But if the State of the National League attacked the Pakatan Harapan in turn, the unity government will be regarded as a test that cannot be tested, and the federal regime will be at stake.For example, the two states (snow and forest) under the National Alliance, and even won the Penang of Penang, the united government will be regarded as a defeat even if they win the number of seats as a whole.Lost federal governance.Because many Congress of Congress supporting the unity government at the moment, in order to protect themselves, they will support the National League. If the number is more, it will cause the united government to step down.In order to avoid the back -hopping method, these parliamentarians will not lose their seats and may not actively change the party. Instead, they will use the loopholes in the reflecting job to keep their respective seats.
On the occasion of the state, united the government to face the severe challenges of at least three related aspects.First, the unity government is composed of the Pakatan Harapan (mainly the People's Justice Party and the Democratic Action Party) and Barisan Nasional (mainly UMNO).After more than half a year, the Pakatan Harapan and Umno were surprisingly good. There were few attacks on each other, and the negotiation process of the distribution of the even statement of the state was extremely smooth.This is mainly due to the good friendship between Prime Minister and Pakatan Harapan Chairman Anhua and Deputy Prime Minister and UMNO Chairman Ahmad Zahi.
Ahmad Zahi used to be the most dare to rush to the horse. For Anhua's early appointment, he publicly criticized the prime minister Mahathir who was at that time. Of course, it also caused political conflicts between horses and An.During the turbulence of the Malaysian Political Bureau in the past three years, the two also made each other with each other and successfully pulled down the former federal government led by the National Alliance.To say that the only entanglement between the Pakatan Harapan and UMNO is probably that the UMNO has been promoting the former Prime Minister Najib, which was released early due to corruption, and the Pakatan Harapan was indifferent, but it did not affect the cooperative relationship between the two sides.
However, another member of the Barisan Nasional Party Mahua, although it is also a member of the unity of the government, has not been assigned to any post and deputy minister position at all, and may not obtain many political resources, so although the number of seats (two) and the enemy and the peopleThe party (40) (40) is not proportional, and relatively favorable political treatment for the people of the People's Bank of China to enter the cabinet is still worried.The size leader regards the reality of the two parties on the same political front, and often uses some small actions to attack the DPP, so that people will have the illusion that they are still political opponents.
MCA chooses not to fight in this state election, mainly because even if it is assigned to the constituency, the victory will not be very high. In case you lose a lotTo the political status in the unity government.However, this time, many constituencies have fierce elections, and they may lose or lose between hundreds of votes or even tens of votes.The ruling power of a state may be planted between the two seats.If MCA does not actively mobilize even if it is a poor supporter to vote, even take the opportunity to pull the hind legs of the friendly party Pakatan Harapan (especially the DPP), unitying the government will not be able to hate the sand field with a very small number of votes.
Second, the united government has super political charm, especially the leaders of the Malay tribe, which seems to be quite lacking. Even the economic minister Rafiz, who had previously talked about the stage, has been quiet in recent months.Kelly, a fans before Umno, was expelled from the party.This has caused Anwar to help the entire peninsula north -south, and it is still difficult to cover all the constituencies.It is difficult to cultivate the general materials in the short term.Conversely, the national alliance side emerged from the emerging leaders of the Minister of Kedah State, becoming another challenge for the unity government.
Third, the majority of Malay people who occupy voters, from the scores of the last election, tend to be more conservative, and the green tide formed by hoping to make society more religious.Come again.However, in the unity government, the leading Pakatan Harapan still adheres to the diverse society, which is very different from the concept of the unique religion of these voters, so it is difficult to obtain the latter support.In the next few weeks, if the challenges faced by the government faced by the government have not been solved, the election situation will be corresponding.
The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute)
Chief Counselor of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center
