Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Society
Although the United States has raised interest rates for more than 5 percentage points for more than a year, the economic performance is extremely tough; not only has no expected decline, but also grows in each season. It is unique in advanced countries, and its employment continues to be strong.However, the American people's feelings of the economy are just the opposite. Since the end of 2021, various polls have unanimously showed that voters have low satisfaction with Biden's economic governance.In order to prevent the curse of "fools, problems in the economy", Biden finally held up the bright banner of "Bidenomics" recently to win more voters' support.
Based on the needs of the election campaign, Biden must compare his economic policy with the Republican economic opinion.For more than 40 years, the Republican government has been using "Reaganomics" as the main axis of politics, advocating a substantial tax cut, loosening regulations, and free trade.The core thinking is "Top-DOWN" to reduce investment to stimulate investment, thereby driving employment and economic growth.The economics community is generally referred to as the "Trickle-DOWN" model, allowing economic interests to penetrate from a layer of enterprises to the middle class.
Biden Economics is a opposite, and the basic concept of preaching is "Bottom-up" or even "from middle to top";Tens of billions of dollars of chips and science laws, as well as hundreds of billions of dollars to motivate clean energy to inspire private investment, drive domestic manufacturing expansion, create high -paying employment opportunities, so that the public can use the middle class as thestarting point.Another method is "inside-out", which uses industrial policies to enhance competitiveness, and maintain its leadership advantage with export control and Youkan outsourcing. The main target is of course mainland China.
From the recent announcement of Biden and the governance of more than two years, the three pillars of "Biden Economics" can be summarized.First, the quality of economic growth is more important than the number of economic growth; not only to make the growth rate higher, but also pay attention to whether growth can reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, and domestic investment must focus more on the fields of national security and the environment.
Second, industrial policy comes to power and does not agree with the flow of capital distribution funds, because investors may not consider climate change, fragile supply chain, or geopolitical conflict.Therefore, "Biden Economics" advocates guiding private funds to the government's preferred department through regulations, subsidies and other intervention methods.
Third, from trade to foreign policies, including labor rights, climate policies, and taxation, etc., they are preferred by American workers, and the principles of consumer interests and competition are not the focus of "Bayeng Economics".Although Biden did not tear the existing free trade agreement like Trump, he had no intention of setting up a new agreement.
In -depth discussing the purpose of "Biden Economics", it is not difficult to discover many problems and contradictions existing.First of all, the scope of government intervention may become wider and wider.Biden and other Democrats have advocated special treatment for aluminum, steel, paper, microelectronics, automotive parts and climate technology; but the United States is not able to supply all imported products itself.At present, the biggest economic difficulty in the re -election of Biden is still because the inflation is still relatively high. However, this industrial policy may not only reduce inflation in the short term, but also have a response.
Although subsidy semiconductor manufacturing has won extensive domestic support in China, the US Department of Commerce stated that the industry to obtain subsidies also needs to meet a series of other goals, including providing employees with care of young children, paying the salary of unions, hiring union workers, and employment.You must not buy back treasury stocks or invest in China, and share surplus with the federal government.With such a lot of goals, it is inevitable that the policy effect is diluted.
As for the "Indo -Pacific Economic Fragments" promoted by Biden, the purpose is to cooperate with the countries in the district to cooperate with labor conditions, climate policies, tax obedience to anti -corruption, etc., but it has not allowed these countries to be easier to be easierCall into the US market.For foreign trading partners, Biden's proposition is not "carrots and sticks", but "sticks plus sticks", which is not attractive to Asian partners.The United States does not have an active trade strategy in the Asia -Pacific region, which will only cause a vacuum state and make China the only choice. Instead, the United States will lose influence.
Of course, there are many uncertainty that affects the results of the election. You cannot just infer the election bureau alone;It is absolutely necessary.
