Source: Surging News
Author: Yu Qun
On July 4th, the new House of Representatives in Thailand held a plenary meeting. Election of the 8th Party League led by the party ranked third among the 8 -Party League led by the party.EssenceThe newly appointed Speaker Muhammad revealed that the Thai parliament will hold a joint parliament of the two House of Representatives on July 13 to vote for a new Prime Minister.The speaker chose the dust and settled, making the affordable Thai political situation starting the process, and the upcoming prime minister election made the next trend more confusing to some extent.
Candidates for Difficult Speaker
Following the election on May 14th, the most votes of Thailand's far -reaching party immediately gathered to form an alliance with eight parties such as the Thai party and the Thai National Party, and announced that it will form a "free democratic" government and strengthen it in various ways to strengthen various ways.The public will be confident in Pitta as the Prime Minister.The two major political parties have far -reaching the party, and the Thai Party shows the "love" on various occasions, showing its honor, disgrace, and affection.However, since the end of May, the two parties have repeatedly played the game on the issue of the candidates of the Speaker, and they have never reached an agreement.
The far party insisted that according to the traditional practices of Thailand's politics, as the first party, the party should be the highest positions of the two prime ministers and speakers at the same time.The initial attitude of the Thai party was relatively strong, and insisted on the power allocation of power in the "14+1" model for the "14+1" model for the Thai party, that is, each occupying 14 cabinet seats.People are speaker.There are two reasons: first, although the far party is the largest party, in fact, only 10 more seats for the Thai party, the right to speak between the two parties should not be different. Second, the largest party at the same timeThe political tradition of serving as the Prime Minister and Speaker has long been broken after the 2019 election.At that time, the Citizen Power Party recommended Bayu as the Prime Minister, but the position of the Speaker was recommended by the Democratic Party, which is far lower than the Citizenship Party, to be elected by the Sichuan. It shows that these two positions are not necessarily controlled by the same party.
However, far away from the party has no concessions, and the Thai party had to soften its position for a time, and was willing to compromise with the far party in the "14+2" model, that is, the far -end party as the speaker, but the seats of the two deputy speakers were fromHe serves as a Thai party.This plan was accepted by the far party.As the crowd thought that the negotiations were successful, they publicly developed a number of veteran -level figures in the Thai party, condemning the party's negotiation representatives to betray the interests of political parties, and insisted that the Speaker was selected by the Thai party, making the situation fall into trouble again.Until the new parliament was formally established, and members of the members collectively saw the king (July 2nd), the two sides still held one end, and it was sincere.
On July 3rd, the Thai party abandoned the nomination of the party as the speaker, sacrificed the discount plan, and recommended the Thai ethnic group leader and 79 -year -old politician Wan Suwan.The Speaker of the Alliance was finally forced to compromise, agreed to this plan, and held a press conference on the evening of the day to announce the plan, which made the eight -party alliance that was on the verge of disintegrating.
Speaking of Dou Congshang Election
On July 4th, the House of Representatives held the first meeting, election speaker and two deputy speaker.The speaker's election process is extremely smooth and less than half an hour.The party leader Pita nominated Banduo as a candidate for the Speaker, and the conservative camp did not nominate any candidate.According to the constitution, Wannuo, as the only candidate, does not need to vote directly.Similarly, the election of the second deputy speaker is also very smooth.Putting on the Thai party is directly elected as the only candidate.
The focus of contradictions focuses on the election of the first deputy speaker.After the party nominated the party ’s original speaker candidate and Peng Shiluo’ s councilor Buda as the deputy speaker candidate, the guardian party ’s party’ s party and the founding party of the founding party, nominated for the party ’s member of the party, participated in the competition.After 496 members of the Representatives did not vote, Buda received 312 votes, and Witta received 105 votes, and 77 members abstained.In view of the aspiring chairman of the conference as the interim chairman of the Thai party member Wilo, and the qualifications of a member of the party have not yet been confirmed by the voting committee, it is clear that Buda not only received all the support of the 8 Party Alliance (a total of 311 seats), but also some support, but also some support, but also some support, but also.Political members outside the alliance vote for it.On the other hand, the number of votes for Wittaya was strange.There are at least 180 seats in conservative camps, but Weitia received only 105 votes, indicating that each party in the camp has its own abacus and did not reach an agreement.What is particularly worth studying is what the party did 77 abstains?
In fact, the election of the speaker is also intriguing.Elections in the history of Thailand's political history, although the seats of the opposition party camp are significantly fell to the wind, they generally launch candidates to show the trial with the ruling party camp.Therefore, this conservative camp is not nominated for candidates for the Speaker, which is not just the helplessness of the difference in the difference between the seats of the two parties, and perhaps a deeper meaning.
Political considerations of each faction
The difficulty of giving birth and compromise in the chief of the Speaker, the plan of compromise is not to doubt how far the Eight Party League can go?On the other hand, the conservative camps that are not ideal for elections (citizenship party, proud Thai party, Democratic Party, and newly established Hetai Founding Party) have never publicly acknowledged the failure of the election, but chose collective silence., Let the far away from entering the party to build momentum.
The author believes that the conservative camp has not been admitted so far, and it is most likely "the dark planway is dark" and is actively planning to realize the reversal in the future political situation.Humanity is illegal on the surface.Because they know that the Eight -Party League of Pitta is not a iron plate, and there are many internal contradictions. Pitta may not be able to appear on the throne of the Prime Minister as much as possible. How exactly the House of Representatives and the opposition alliance are divided.If the conservative camp will participate in the governing alliance in the future, it belongs to the same camp as Wanno, so there is no need to nominate the candidates for the Speaker.
According to this logic, when the party was nominated for the first speaker candidate, the Heetan Founding Party sent members to play, but when the Thai party nominated the second vice president, the conservative camp did not nominate candidate competition.: The conservative camp clearly clearly enters the party as a political opponent, but it is possible for the Thai party to be friends or enemies in the future.
If you stand on the standpoint of the far party to analyze the entire process of the Speaker election, frankly speaking, in the competition of this important round, the young and tender far party will lose to the old party.This also means that in the next political competition, the party has been lost in the party, and it will face many obstacles.The reason why the far -reaching party has always emphasized that the duty of the Speaker must be appointed by the party because they understand that Pita is difficult to serve as the Prime Minister, and it is likely that the Thai party is likely to abandon the alliance.Only by holding the speaker firmly first, will it not be restrained by the Thai party. The position of the Prime Minister of Pita may still have a certain possibility.Otherwise, as a speaker of the Thai party, the far party will fall into a passive situation, and it is very likely that Pitta has only one chance to run for the Prime Minister in Parliament.In addition, when far away from the party, many legislative solutions were proposed, especially to promote the reform of the army and the amendment to Article 112 of the Criminal Law (that is, the so -called "crime of" bullying the monarch ").Relying on the strength of the far party to promote realization.Therefore, far from the party to do everything possible to compete as the leader of the legislature as the leader of the legislature and the settlement of the agenda of the parliamentary agenda to achieve its political ambitions.
However, the final result was still failed to be as expected.Although the Thai party has not forcibly recommended their candidate to the candidate Sucha, as we all know, the Thai National Party of the Thailand is in fact the Thai party's "Titan section".Early elections, the Thai party almost did not touch the Southern Thai government, all left the site to Wannuo, which was originally his faction.Therefore, Wannuo's appointment as the Speaker seems to be a discount plan, but in fact, he still takes the initiative to take the initiative for the Thai party.
Although the rumors are constantly, it is believed that the next step of the Thai party is going to abandon the party and go to the party., Citizen's Citizen Cooperation Group Pavilion with Bavai, welcomed him to return to China.However, the Thai party's refusal to stop the party as the speaker, it does not mean that it will immediately change the hexagram and change to cooperate with the conservative camp to cooperate with the Pavilion. It will be damaged by the Thai party's reputation.However, careful observation of the Thai party's tension with the sword of the party with the candidate of the Thai party can obviously feel that the Thai party's hesitant in the future of the Thai party in the future.On the one hand, the main characters of the Thai party, such as the party, Chun Lanan, still insist that the Thai party must adhere to the "free democracy" camp, and should not easily close with the conservative camp.On the other hand, there is a powerful invisible force in the Thai party. It is trying to avoid the situation where the party is completely bundled with the far party.Compared with the strength of the two factions, the latter finally won.This is precisely because the Thai party finally refused to stop the party as the speaker and nominated the deep reasons for Banno.
Political situation is moving towards the "dangerous area"
After Wannuo as the Speaker, the remarkable prime minister election will be held on July 13.In accordance with the alliance agreement, the Eight -Party League will do its best to recommend Pita as the Prime Minister.As we all know, Pitta's biggest stops in the prime minister are 250 senators. If they do not get more than half of the 750 members of the two hospitals, Pita can only fold the halberd field.Although Pitta and many high -level high -level high -levels have publicly stated that they are confident that they can get the support of at least 70 senators. In addition to the original votes of the Eight Party League, Pitta can be successfully elected.However, how many senators will vote for Pita have not yet been known.The vast majority of political observer believes that due to the political stance of Pita and the far -reaching party, the senators will be very cautious when they vote. The support votes of the 70 senators expected by Pita may be just mirror flowers.
Pita wants to be the Prime Minister, and there are two possibilities: First, the Great Party in the conservative camp proud of the Thai party to join the ruling alliance.But this possibility is not great, because the proud of the Thai party has made it clear that it has a clear line with the party.The second is to strive for some senators and some members to help them get more than half of their support.In view of the voting of the first voting of Buda Pata from the first voting of Buda Pata, it shows that this possibility exists, but it will undoubtedly take a lot of time.If the Thai party can do my best and help Pita seek support, there may be a hopes.
However, Pitta is more likely to support less than half of the prime minister's election.If so, Speaker Wannuo will help Pitta and provide multiple parliamentary voting opportunities.However, even if the constitution does not restrict the number of votes of parliament during the election of the Prime Minister, it is impossible for Wannuo to help Pitta indefinitely.At the Eight Party Alliance reporters on the evening of July 3, Wannuo once said that at least two opportunities were given to Pitta.The implication is that it is only three. If two votes are voted, the Eight -Party Alliance will be changed to change, and other Prime Minister candidates are recommended.
At that time, the candidate for the Prime Minister of the Thai party was likely to be on behalf of the Eight -Party League. As for whether it was Seta or Best Dan, it was currently unpredictable.If the Thai party candidate fails to be supported by the senators when the two houses are jointly elected, then politics will fall into a deadlock.The Thai party may bid farewell to the party to enter the party, and the party with the citizenship party, the proud Thai party's joint group, the candidate for the Thai party or a prime minister by Bavawei and Anu.If the Thai party loves feathers and insists on advancing with the far party, then the conservative camp can only push the boat smoothly, and form a minority government with the support of the senators.
Once a conservative camp establishs a minority government, the probability can only maintain a short time, and the parliament must be disbanded and re -elected.Moreover, a few government -oriented government will also face street fighting on the "Orange and Red Corps" composed of supporters from the far party and supporters of the Thai party.But then again, if Peita serves as the prime minister, supporters of conservative camps are likely to take the streets and protest, and the political situation in Thailand will once again fall into a turbulent place.
In any case, I hope that the Thai people will go out of the political dilemma with "Thai -style wisdom" and successfully form the government to achieve political stability and start a new journey belonging to the Thai people.
(the author is the director, associate professor, doctorate of the Southeast Asia Research Center of the School of International Relations of the University of Defense)
