Because economic data in May 2023 is not as expected, the market's call for the Chinese government's stimulus policy is very high. On June 16, the State Council Executive Meeting also believes that "policy measures with conditions must be introduced in time, implemented in a hurry, and strengthened at the same time.The reserves of policies and measures will maximize the comprehensive policy effect. "How to understand the current status and trend of China's economy, and to scientifically formulate a new round of stimulating economic policies, what issues need to pay attention to?
1. Challenges faced by China's high -quality development stage: speed issues and structural issues are intertwined.
In 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Chinese government proposed a "high -quality development" statement, which revealed the prelude to the Chinese economy's shift from a high -speed growth stage to a high -quality development stage.In 2022, China's per capita GDP (GDP) was $ 11,880.According to the 14th Five -Year Plan and the 20th National Congress report and the subsequent series of important meetings, the main contradictions in Chinese society during this period include: first, the problem of inadequate development and inadequate development is still prominent; the second is that the masses are employment, education, medical care, childcare, and childcare, and childcare.There are many problems in the aspects of pension, housing, etc.; the third is that the ability of scientific and technological innovation is not strong; the fourth is to ensure that the reliable and safe and prevent financial risks of food, energy, and industrial chain supply chains must be solved.During the period when risky challenges coexist, uncertainty is difficult to predict factors, various black swan and gray rhinos are likely to occur at any time. "Six are the foundation of China's economic recovery after the epidemic.The pressure is still greater; seventh is that the aging of China's population has arrived, the population growth has declined, climate warming, globalization, and artificial intelligence and fierce development.
Therefore, it can be seen that the problems facing the Chinese economy have not only developed unbalanced development for a long time, but also the problem of slow development due to new changes.Slow development is caused by unbalanced development and new problems.
2. China's long -term economic stability and social stability of "cockpit stones" and "pain bearers".
Since the reform and opening up of China, the overall economic development has been developed rapidly, but there have been several small cycles.At the stage of economic decline, China's social security is incomplete but there is no serious social problem. The core is a stable "cockpit stone".
In China's dual economic structure, migrant workers have long been economic structure adjustments but society is still stable.Since 2014, the growth rate of migrant workers has changed greater than that of social employees, and it is particularly obvious during the economic downturn.The reason is that the underlying labor competition is fierce and easily affected by economic fluctuations.The cost of increasing unemployment rate.
At this stage, a new generation of college students are the products of the only child policy since the reform and opening up, and have become the undertaking of the social cost of economic fluctuations and unemployment rates at this stage.At present, college students entering the labor market are often only children of their children, namely, parents, grandparents, and grandfather three families. Six families have six wallets to raise one child. Due to the small economic pressure, they can bear the "voluntary unemployment" among them. ChoosePostgraduate study, or wait for good job opportunities.In May 2023, the unemployment rate in the unemployment rate was 20.8%, which was 5.2%higher than the national urban survey unemployment rate.There are many reasons. The most important thing is that the number of graduates of ordinary colleges and universities in 2022 increased by 17%over 2021.Labor idle is a serious waste of social resources, but the objective characteristics of Chinese national conditions determine the stabilizer of migrant workers and college students.
Three, the enlightenment of the new round of stimulus policies in the international academic HANK model.
Before the financial crisis, based on the representative agent (RA), incomplete competition, and price viscosity -the "new classical comprehensive" of the RANK model occupies the "head chair" of macroeconomic research.Policy analysis "case".However, the US Finance Minister Yelun and others believe that the classic model does not help macroeconomic decisions; after the subprime mortgage crisis, economists such as Romer and Stigrz pointed their spear heads to representative economic people, incomplete markets, and incomplete markets., Incomplete competition, price stickiness and other issues.Hank models have a great impact on the international academic community, that is, macroeconomic policies must consider different levels of response. China's stimulus policy should also consider these new trends in the international academic community.
First, the pyramid -type Chinese society appears heterogeneous consumption structure
The global inequality report statistics in 2022 found that in 2021, 50%of China's underlying population had 14.4%of the population income, 6.4%of wealth, 41.7%of the 10%of the high -level population, and 67.8%of wealth.Wealth inequality leads to a large difference in consumption and investment behavior.
Due to data acquisition, in 2012, China ’s basic situation is divided into urban residents in the income level, 10%of the maximum income householdIncome households, medium -sized lower households, minimum income households of 10%, 5%of difficult households, the average consumption tendency rises step by step, 59%, 67%, 70%, 73%, 77%, 89%, 89%97%, while the national average is 68%.Wealth is constantly shifting to a few families, and most families have consumer desires but have no consumption power.
Second, more and more industries in Chinese society have entered non -complete competition
Non -complete competition is reflected in the characteristics of market imperfections, monopoly, and price stickiness.China's labor market and other factors are incomplete, with serious market barriers, and cannot compete equally inside and outside the system.In particular, there are serious monopolies in many industries in China. Many companies lying on their own money, but many of the industry's vicious competition 996.The Chinese market is incomplete, the industry's price is extremely viscous, some zombie companies are rigid and immortal, and other fierce competition industry wages have continued to decline.A small number of people controlled by the real estate industry have a large price drop, which is not conducive to the market clearing; on the other hand, housing prices in third- and fourth -tier cities have fallen below the down payment ratio, but they cannot re -negotiate and interest.It must be carried out from personal life to negative assets.
Fourth, a new round of stimulus policy "inverse cycle and cross -cycle": monetary policy reverse cycle regulation, financial industry policy takes into account the inverse cycle and cross -cycle.
In July 2020, the Meeting of the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government's Political Bureau first proposed "improving macro -control cross -cyclical design and adjustment".The Central Economic Work Conference in the year further proposed that "the cross -cycle and counter -cycle macro -control policy must be organically combined."Therefore, the stimulus policy must consider "inverse cycle" and "cross -cycle" at this stage.Because monetary policy has only a short -term effect, it can only be adjusted against cycles.The fiscal policy has the significance of structural adjustment, so fiscal policy must be "inverse cycle" and "cycle".Under the premise of fully demonstrating the effectiveness of industrial policies and regional development policies, it has the role of counter -cyclical stimuli, but also the role of cross -cyclical adjustment.
Regarding China's economic growth, the government should first realize that the two stable cockpit stones in Chinese society should be realized. Therefore, the new round of stimulus policies must focus on improving market mechanisms, breaking market monopolies, and eliminating price rigidity.Major deployment of structural reform.
Author Wuqiu Tai is a Chinese financial critic, a doctor of finance
Wen Jiandong is a researcher at Cambridge University Management Society, Doctor of Economics
