Source: Taiwan Zhongshi News Network
Author: Hong Qichang Li Guozheng
2027 The centennial goal of founding the army has basically achieved the goal of socialist modernization compared to 2035, the latter is the superior strategic goal of the central government of the mainland government.For Beijing, grasping the ten years of national development of the country, expanding and consolidating international strategic discourse and comprehensive national strength, and a period of "power without dominating the global Asian regional power" is the core of China's strategy.
Under such a strategic level relationship, military forces are the continuation of politics. Although the strong army and the founding of the army are the confidence of Beijing's international influence, Beijing will not be upside down. Military operations must cooperate with China's national development strategy.Non -disrupted national strategic layout.
In November 2022, Xu Qiliang, then vice chairman of the National Central Military Commission of China, wrote that the centennial goal of the founding of the military in 2027 was basically pointed at "the strategic ability to comprehensively improve the national sovereignty, security, and development benefits."From this perspective, the core task of the Chinese People's Liberation Army should be summarized as the two major aspects of "offshore defense and the long sea defense". The offshore defense is the traditional maintenance of territorial sovereignty.The interests of Asia and Africa are not threatened.
Under the strategic requirements of the "offshore defense and the defense of the high sea", the goal of the 2027 Chinese army's military establishment should be that focusing on the establishment of the long sea deployment and maneuverability capabilities that the army should have.In terms of means, strengthen the "gray zone" and "cognitive operations" that have not met the conditions of war to achieve secondary goals.Overall climbing, the development of the Chinese army's founding can be observed from the following levels to observe its layout and restrictions:
1. Realize national defense technology jump.In the era of information -based combat combat, the performance of the military's conventional weapons was required, and the capacity of the ability to manage the Assets Supervision and Investigation (C4ISR), artificial intelligence accelerated the possibility of unmanned combat.The goal of Chinese defense and military modernization is to strengthen the high -end computing technology and equipment required for joint information combat.
2. Executive deterrence of military activities.China ’s“ anti -intervention/region refusal ”(A2/AD) strategy to deteriorates other countries in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea and the East China Sea. China’ s naval forces play the front line peripheral of the sea in the sovereignty of territorial sovereignty.Air breaks through the first island chain, close to the second island chain, shows the cruise and joint combat capabilities, and convey that other countries must not be invaded.
However, in the context of the United States Union's allies to force high -tech transfer to China, China must first use the national system to carry out online, aviation, space, missiles, drones, underwater vehicles and other fields.R & D.This is a difficult and long road, and it requires sustainable economic development and scientific research strength as the foundation.
In addition, China's military power photography has long aroused common concerns about the surrounding countries of India and even the world, so it has continued to strengthen cooperation with US security.Of course, under the deterrent situation of the two sides, it did increase the risk of geopolitical situations.
At the same time, China must also get experience from the Russian and Ukraine War.China's military operations must consider the international political atmosphere, and we must take into account the actual restrictions of national and military power.
Therefore, we noticed that under the condition of not being able to win quickly in the current war, Beijing has adopted more gray zone operations and expanded the cognitive war to obtain the stage effect:
1. Develop a gray zone attack.Under the overall situation of comprehensive national strength restrictions and the overall development of the country, the Chinese army is gradually establishing a joint action with maritime police and maritime units.
In the Taiwan Strait area, Mainland China, police, and militia are fully pressured on the Taiwan Strait with military exercises, joint cruise, combined with sand, and seas.The goal of the stage is to establish the normal existence of mainland military forces in Taiwan, strengthen the substantial control of the mainland for the Strait region, and create conditions for the "internal sea" of the Taiwan Strait.In the East China Sea and the South China Sea region, all units in mainland military and civilians also strengthen their influence and existence in the region through normal cruise.
2. Give full play to the effect of cognitive war.For the current situation in mainland China, it is actually more tricky than war.After all, the gray zone operation is not a war behavior. The international counter -tooling tools are really limited. If the warship confronts, the risk of wiping the gun and the fire is very high.EssenceTherefore, the method of pressure on gray areas can often get the effect of cognitive wars.
Taking the cognitive operations of Taiwan's cognitive operations as an example, Lufang shaped different messages in the public in accordance with different objects. On the one hand, it continued to differentiate the consensus of the "future" within Taiwan's society and weakened the people's determination to invest in land defense; on the other hand,It is the intention of regional and international conveying Taiwan to belong to Chinese territory and Taiwan society to reduce the support of the international community on Taiwan's international status;
It is worth noting that China's military modernization is a "type" instead of completion. When its own economy needs to revitalize and the defense technology has not yet been in place; when the military existence of the international enhancement in the Indo -Pacific region, mainland ChinaIf the war was launched in Indo -Pacific, it was a country and army with an unfinished reform, facing an alliance, not a country.
From this point of view, the risk of war in Beijing at this stage is much higher than possible.Therefore, not only does the United States need to control the risk of conflict, but Beijing also has the motivation to avoid risks and seize the opportunity to revitalize the economy and implement the national development goals.
Therefore, at this stage, Beijing's imagination of the development of cross -strait relations is more inclined to "maintain a small step forward" with the principle of "maintaining the status quo".On the one hand, it is in line with the international community (the United States, Japan, and the European Union) of peace in Taiwan. Secondly, compared with 2035 countries that build a modern socialism, it is not the goal of Beijing's priority at this stage.Wu Tong Taiwan can only appear only when it is extremely unexpected, that is, the three parties of the United States and the United States ignore each other's red line and bottom line.
(Author Hong Qichang is the former chairman of the Taiwan Sea Foundation and Li Guozheng as a doctor of international relations)
