After the suspension of debt limit, the scale of debt of the US federal government quickly approached US $ 32 trillion (about $ 43 trillion), which is equivalent to 120%of GDP (GDP).Ten years ago, this number was only 1.639 trillion, and in 2000 it was US $ 5.62 trillion. In terms of growth rate, it was extremely fast.Moreover, on the issue of government debt, the game of the United States and Republican parties has become a "timid game". The so -called "debt limit" is nothing more than a political show. There is no substantial binding force.With the intensification of geopolitical games, the U.S. government, which controls the global financial system, will only rush on the road of leverage and cannot slow down.
The situation in other countries is not much better.In the first half of this year, China ’s macro leverage ratio (total debt to GDP) exceeded 280%, which was doubled compared to 2008.Local governments' debt, real estate enterprise debt repayment capacity, and small and medium -sized financial institutions have been regarded as three major risk hazards by senior management. Among them, the real number of government -hidden debt (non -contract debt) has not yet been figured out.
Looking at the world, after the crown disease epidemic, the average value of the macro leverage has risen to 250%, and it cannot see the signs of decline.The threat of the global economy is far more than the reshaping or the Russian and Ukraine War of the global economy.
The essence of debt is to overdraw future wealth. For the expected income, Dafa is all moved to the moment.Uncontinental debt is a typical short -term behavior. The cause of the past economic crisis is ultimately too much debt.
High leverage and production efficiency
But it is also because of high debt and leverage that it is possible to mobilize huge amounts of resources in the short term and promote the ultra -economic development of the economy.Almost every successful country has experienced the development stage of "high debt+high growth".Of course, the ultra -common development under this model is mainly reflected in the accumulation of quantity, and it may not be the comprehensive improvement of comprehensive national strength and other comprehensive national strength of technology and soft power.However, the total economic amount is the basis for ensuring competitiveness. For emerging market countries, it is a feasible and necessary model to promote development with high leverage. It cannot be simply attributed to a certain type of "trap".However, if the debt problem is not handled well and causes the economic crisis, the results of development are likely to be destroyed.
In fact, the high leverage itself is not terrible. If the funds that have been borrowed have been exchanged for high returns, when the profit is sufficient to cover the cost of funds, the repayment of debt principal and interest is not a problem.The debt risk can naturally be controlled.Therefore, the problem is not at all in the debt, but the high and low production efficiency.
For most economies, after developing to a certain level, the industrial model is relatively solidified, the cost of labor is continuously improved, but the effective path of technological breakthroughs and mechanism reform cannot be found.Probability will form operating benefits that cannot cover the cost of debt costs.
At this time, it will fall into a trap that continues to increase leverage without cost, because once new incremental funds cannot be obtained, it will face the original debt and cannot pay debt after the expiration.Large -scale debt crisis.Therefore, in order to ensure that the debt chain does not break, it has to continue to increase new liabilities, so that this cycle is re -entered.
When the tolerance of debt leverage and production efficiency is departing to a certain extent, debt kidnapped economic development, and the total debt can only continue to rise and cannot stop at all.The entire economy is financially melted, financial assets expand rapidly, and depend on continuous currency injection, rather than other factors to maintain economic operation and GDP values.
This is also the fundamental reason why many countries have long relying on currency quantitative easing policies for a long time. Only the sufficient currency can ensure that the government and enterprises continue to spend low -cost local leverage.Whether you dare to increase debt costs decisively after quantitative easing and maintain the overall economic stability of the economy, is the truly measure whether a economy has enough toughness.
In the composition of debt, government debt is supported by national credit and banknote issuance.
The situation of failed to operate by enterprises is very common. However, although the debt of ordinary enterprises determines the value of macro leverage, it cannot be compared with financial institutions in terms of importance.Because the liabilities of financial institutions are mostly from the depositors, involving public expectations and market confidence; and after leverage is added to a certain degree, the security of the economic chain is transferred to the financial industry.At the same time, financial institutions have a high degree of correlation, and their business is embedded in depth. If individual risks are not handled, they will spread quickly and spread to the entire market. The degree of destruction will be systematically.After the closure of the Silicon Valley Bank in the United States, although the regulatory authorities decisively helped, nearly 200 small and medium -sized banks still had the same risks, while the number of banks that recently operated floating losses exceeded 700.
Therefore, government debt and ordinary corporate debt are not afraid, and the impact of residential debt is even more local.In the current economic structure, only the financial industry's compensation crisis is the most likely to lead to systemic risks.
Out of the way in the technological revolution or system change
Systematic risks means that economic recession, blocking development, and the decline in people's livelihood. Under the context of election politics and generalization, any regime cannot bear these consequences.Therefore, in the face of imminent systemic risks, governments of various countries will actively intervene in rescue.The most effective rescue method is nothing more than direct or indirectly to inject new liquidity funds into financial institutions in the eyes of storms, maintain the continuity and toughness of the debt chain, and let's talk about this level in front of you.
If the government has abundant funds itself and can implement rescue of financial institutions that occur in crisis in a reasonable way, it is a normal performance to fulfill public duties.The problem is that the governments of most countries themselves have been debt, and rescue funds can only be derived from new public debt.Of course, the government can also promote private institutions to participate in rescue, but this also needs to increase the issuance of currency to enhance the liquidity of the entire market.Therefore, the measures taken to resolve the debt crisis have not actually solved the problem, but can only delay and even increase the problem. The result will only be the further increase in the total debt.
Where is the end of debt expansion?
The best ending is the technological revolution or epoch -making institutional change, promote productivity leaps, industrial upgrades, rapid efficiency, macro lever quickly turn into a virtuous circle, and the crisis disappears naturally.But if you look back at history, you will find that the process of continuation of a regime is almost always rising in the process of the total amount of currencies and the total debt.In the end everything came from scratch.
Of course, the most commonly used method is to strengthen the government's intervention in the market, regulate interest rates, and deal with risks. At the same time, local reform and innovation are implemented. While depreciating the currency, we will strive to improve the efficiency of production, gradually reduce the difficulty of repayment of debt, and finally debt the debt will eventually debt the debt.The risks are scattered to all the people to achieve the so -called soft landing.
The author is the director of the China Financial Legal Studies Research Association
Beijing Retired Scholar
