Source: Zhongshi Electronic News

Author: Su Yonglin

The US Media Wall Street Journal reported that when U.S. Secretary of State Brillings visited Beijing a few days ago, China asked the United States' attitude towards the 2024 Taiwan election.When I attended the President President's inauguration in August this year, the possibility of transit the United States.Blingken mentioned at the Beijing press conference that the two sides intend to jointly "divide the centralized console sea". So will the control objects be Lai Qingde?

According to the interactive practice of the United States, Lai Qingde has a lot of opportunities to cross the United States. Of course, the Lai Qingde and the DPP government are also willing to promote this visit. One is that it can show that Lai Qingde is particularly supported by the United States."Lu Fang made a tough response on Lai Qingde's visit to the United States, so that the 2024 election returned to the Blue and Green Basic Duel, and the same is elected by Lai Qingde.For the United States, Lai Qingde visited Washington with his personal identity as Vice President Hou as early as in January 2020. He passed the United States in 2022. It was not a problem at all in the "Red Line" policy of the "Red Line" in the first middle school.

In this case, why did Lai Qingde's transit in August suddenly survived by the foreign media after the U.S.'s transit in the United States?This involves an important issue that Beijing, Washington, and Taiwan (Lai Qingde) may face under the current situation: how much is the price of Lai Qingde?

First of all, for Beijing, since the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States House of Representatives Perosi visited Taiwan in August last year, Tsai Ing -wen passed the United States in April this year.The degree of interaction between Taiwan is linked, which means that once Lai Qingde, who claims to be "pragmatic Taiwan independence workers", will cause the mainland to tough military countermeasures again.However, the problem is that the mainland this year to seize the opportunity to resume exchanges after the epidemic and promote the integration and development of both sides of the strait. If the public opinion is tension due to military exercises in August, it may not be in line with Beijing's will, let alone the mainland also wants to assists the people's progress due to military exercise assists in the people's progress.The party replicates the script of 2020 wins.

From the perspective of Washington, the reason why Brinken excludes all difficult to visit Beijing is precisely because the Bayeng government still wants to avoid conflicts with China, especially in the Taiwan Strait.In September, India's G20 and November San Francisco APEC is still the goal of "worshiping the meeting" that the United States and China work together.Bakery.Although the United States is hostile to China, at least before the end of 2024, the U.S. and Democratic Party could not bear the consequences of the US -China relations because of the "messed" of Taiwan.

In the end, for Lai Qingde himself, although its cross -strait discussion says that "respect Cai and respect the beauty", in fact, Tsai Ing -wen has won the most critical expositions recognized by the United States: "According to the regulations of the constitutional system of the Republic of China and the Cross -Strait People's Relations RegulationsLai has never been accepted.If the United States requests it, it can agree to arrange Lai Qingde to cross the country, but the premise is that Lai needs to solemnly express that the Constitution of the Republic of China and the regulations on cross -strait regulations should be dealt with on both sides of the strait, and the basis of the dialogue with Beijing on its own.EssenceThe question is, is Lai Qingde willing to accept this price?

The author is a think tank researcher