Source: Ming Pao
Ming Pao Society Review
The economy is weak, and the decline in imports and exports in Hong Kong has expanded.Hong Kong is a highly open small economy, and the global commodity trade has slowed down sharply, which directly affects the pace of Hong Kong's recovery. The official recently stated that the Hong Kong economy will be supported by consumption this year.More measures to inject more kinetic energy into the economy.The Director of the Finance Department intends to relax the current mortgage measures for large buildings, hoping to help the builders "live a larger".Relevant measures can theoretically stimulate the building chain and have support for the property market. However, the peripheral and local economic haze is dense. The high -interest environment is expected to maintain a period of time. The official relaxation of mortgage measures must be taken.For alert risk.
Under the wind and rush and strong
Consumer Tourism to support the economy
The current government has been in office for almost a year. The Chief Executive Li Jiachao reviewed the work in the past year and mentioned that the time that Hong Kong needs to recover the previous years has been missed before. As Hong Kong comes out of the haze of the epidemic, the economy has also begun to recover. In the first quarter of this year,GDP increased by 2.7%year -on -year, ending the decline in four consecutive seasons, and the median household income has also risen.Last year, Hong Kong's economy shrinks about 3.5%. This year is the year when Hong Kong and the Mainland are restored. At the beginning of the official year, the local economic growth was 3.5%to 5.5%. The first quarter was a good start. HoweverIn the second half of the year, Hong Kong's economic performance faced a lot of pressure. The import and export numbers announced yesterday just reflected the difficulties.
Exporting to export trade is one of the important engines in Hong Kong's economic growth. According to the latest number of the government, Hong Kong's import and export decline in May in May, the exports fell 15.6%year -on -year, and the imports fell 16.7%year -on -year.The biggest decline in the past.The government said that exports to all major markets have fallen, and the declines from Asia and the United States have reached 18%, and the decline in Germany has reached 33%.The US economic growth is weak, the euro zone has fallen into a decline, the consumption demand of advanced economies has declined, and the global commodity trade is directly combated. Federation of international rating agencies predict that this year's global trade growth is only 1.9 %, a significant decrease from 5.5 % last year.Growth is pale, it is estimated that this year is only 2%, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than last year.Looking at multiple economies in Asia to depend on export trade, the economy in Taiwan has shrunk by about 3%in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter of Singapore, Singapore has only increased by 0.1%. Hong Kong is really difficult to be alone.
Premier Li Qiang said yesterday that China's economy has risen this year, an increase of 4.5%in the first quarter. It is expected that the next quarter can be accelerated. It is expected to achieve the 5%economic growth target set by the beginning of the year.Hong Kong's economy has a backing in the Mainland, which is undoubtedly an advantage, but if the peripheral environment continues to deteriorate, the pace of local recovery is indeed possible.In the middle of last month, the Hong Kong Government still believes that if the dynamic power of the first quarter continues, the annual growth is expected to be close to the upper limit of the forecast range, that is, 5.5%. Now it seems that the estimation is obviously optimistic.In fact, there have also been some changes in the official tone in the near future. Chen Maobo, director of the Finance Department, said that Hong Kong exports are facing great challenges. If the environmental environment is poor in the second half of the year, it will be difficult to achieve the annual economic growth goal."" ".
Global commodity trade has slowed down sharply. In contrast, the recovery of trade trade is better. Fitch pointed out that this is mainly to have a rebound in the tourism industry and transportation industry after the epidemic.Singapore has weak economic performance this year, and the field of accommodation and catering services has become a highlight.Looking back at the recovery of the tourism industry in Hong Kong, about 10 million passengers came to Hong Kong in the first five months of this year, which is equivalent to the level of 40 % of the first epidemic.In the second half of the year, the prospect of the tourism industry is undoubtedly more optimistic, which has a leading role in the retail and catering industry. However, now the mainland customers visit Hong Kong, both travel or consumption models have changed. Compared with the pursuit of luxury, many mainland customers are hotter and deep in depth.Tourism and authentic experience, the industry needs to be adjusted accordingly.The global economic growth is insufficient, and the tourism industry in recovery is rare. Hong Kong knows that it is necessary to "grab passengers", as well as other economies in the region. It is necessary for the SAR to officially introduce more measures to attract passengers to deal with regional tourism industry.compete.
Global economic prospects are unknown, and Hong Kong's recovery also shows signs of slowing down. The atmosphere of the property market is fade, which is also inevitable.Recently, there have been more voices for the government to "withdraw spicy". The chief of the Finance Department said earlier this month that he has no intention of adjusting the "spicy trick" of the property market for the time being, but it can be considered to relax the proportion of the first mortgage.Recently, Fortune also proposed that it is intended to relax the current mortgage measures in order to change the building and aim at large units.
Help a small family to change units
Don't talk to the withdrawal
At present, the maximum mortgage percentage of small and medium -sized units, together with mortgage insurance, is 90 %, and the arrangements are designed to help the first person "get on the car".Many of the real estate couples want to "live a greater" after fertility, but they are not easy to change the units.It is indeed a good news for this kind of family mortgage. However, relevant measures will inevitably stimulate the building chain. There must be an effect of encouraging entry into the market. Considering that the haze of the peripheral economy is dense, the official must be cautious.The Federal Reserve shows that it is still ready to raise interest rates once this year.Hong Kong's high interest rates are expected to be maintained for a period of time. Regardless of whether the first person gets in the car or changing a small family, it must be forced.At the same time, officials should also avoid posting error information to the market, so that the outside world thinks that to relax the mortgage measures of large units is the prelude to the official plan to "withdraw".
