They believe that the rise in oil prices at present is expected to promote the export price of oil and chemical products in Singapore, while bringing risk of importing inflation.
Since the outbreak of the Harbin conflict, the futures price of Brent International Crude Oil has once again risen from $ 85 per barrel to about $ 92, and returned to the high position in September.The backlog of Israeli port shipping is increasing.
Wu Peiyuan, an associate professor of the Department of Business Analysis and Operation Management of Singapore's National University Business School (Nus Business School, was interviewed by Lianhe Morning Post: "The Harbin conflict may not directly affect the trade or shipping in Singapore in the short term.The extension or expansion of the conflict will cause more parties to be involved in it, which will bring more uncertainty to the global economy.
He pointed out that if the conflict continues or expands, due to the increase in insurance costs and the shipping of the route to avoid the dangerous areas, the shipping cost will rise accordingly.In addition, supply may decrease and increase shipping complexity, and the prices of oil and natural gas are expected to rise.He said: "This will curb the overall economic prospects and trade, which will affect Singapore."
DBS (DBS) economist Cai Hanting said in an interview that the current container throughput of Israeli ports accounts for about 0.4 % of the world's, so the impact on global container trade flow is limited."We believe that Singapore's regional trade exposure to regional trade affected by (with Harbin conflict) is very small."
However, he believes that the recent rise in oil prices in the world is likely to be transformed into an increase in export value of oil and petrochemical products in Singapore in the next few months, but it will also bring the risk of importing inflation.
Analysis: Israel and Singapore's two -way trade less directly impact less directly
Song Shengwen, Singapore Economic Consultant, Singapore, believes that in an interview with CGS-CIMB Securities, Singapore believes that there are relatively few two-way trade with Singapore and Asia, and the current direct impact is also small.The trade of modern services and technology products may be affected because Israel is quite strong in the field of technology.
He said: "If traveling in the area is considered a high risk, the supply chain and logistics costs will be affected. When the supply chain is interrupted, the price will rise."
Song Shengwen also pointed out that in terms of global supply chain, there are currently other worrying problems, such as drought in the Panama Canal dehydration, which has recently restricted the number of vessels, and the Harbin conflict has added concerns to the global supply chain.
He explained that although the supply chain problem does not happen in Singapore or Asia, the global supply chain is closely related. Whether it happens in the Panama Canal or the Suez Canal, it will indirectly affect Singapore and Asia, because ships may not be able to be on time on timearrival.
He said that the possible impact of Harbin conflict on energy prices and supply chains, basically
He said that the development of the Harbin conflict is difficult to predict, and the changes in the situation can be fast. "We can only pray that the conflict will not expand and wait for the results of diplomatic efforts."
In terms of preparation, he believes that "Singapore has learned from the epidemic in the past three years, and knows the best way to deal with the response to ensure that there is sufficient supply and fully prepare for possible supply chain interruptions."
Associate Professor Wu Peiyuan also suggested that enterprises should adopt diversified and business continuity management in procurement, inventory and logistics.Although enterprises have experienced interference or interruption during the period of coronary disease, this interference or interrupt and emergency plan will still increase more uncertainty and costs, making the enterprise face greater challenges.
