China's real estate development investment in the first three quarters of this year decreased by 9.1%year -on -year, of which residential investment fell by 8.4%. Market participants analyzed, which showed that the "house recognition and not recognizing loan" policy effect was not expected.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Wednesday (October 18) showed that in the third quarter, the national commercial housing sales of commercial housing were 8.9 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about 1.6 trillion yuan), a decrease of 4.6%; Residential sales fell 3.2%.The national real estate development investment decreased by 9.1%year -on -year, and the decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January to August, of which residential investment fell by 8.4%.
According to daily economic news reports, Zhang Hongwei, the founder of Mirror Consultation, said that "Since the new policy such as recognition of houses and not recognizing loans, although the policy portfolio is good, the fist has gradually fallen to the ground, but in the short term, real estate development investment investmentThe sales of commercial housing have not yet changed significantly, and it is still in the passage of a year -on -year decline.There is no trading volume recovery.
Zhang Hongwei analyzed that the general rising volume of strong second -tier cities is a area where demand is dominated, and there are also factors that are driven by price reduction and running. At the same timeThe city has a rainbow effect; the effects of other weak second -tier and third- and fourth -tier cities are not obvious, and there are still large destocking pressure. This is also the main reason why these cities develop investment, commercial housing sales, and house prices in the current regulation.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the China Finger Research Institute, pointed out that with a certain degree of activity in the core city sales market, the real estate development investment in core cities is expected to gradually improve, and then support a certain support for the national real estate development investment in the fourth quarter.However, from the perspective of the year, the number of real estate development investment in the country may still decline.
In addition, official data shows that the newly started construction area of real estate development enterprises was 72.123 million square meters, a decrease of 23.4%.Among them, the newly started construction area of 52.51.1 million square meters decreased by 23.9%.
The Yiju Research Institute stated that the above indicators have fallen for 25 consecutive months. In the short term, due to the relatively low market data of the buying sales market, the risks of new startups have not been exposed.From the perspective of the virtuous cycle of real estate, the start data of the new house still needs to be boosted.
