Representatives from about 130 countries in China participated in the "Belt Belt Belt Belt BeltThe "Summit Forum, commemorating the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, the most watched guests are Russian President Putin.
The opening ceremony of the Belt and Road Summit Forum was held on Wednesday (18th). Putin arrived in Beijing on the 17th. This was the first time he was wanted by the International Criminal Court for the crime of war in March this year.China arrested Putin because it did not sign the relevant treaty.
China -Russia jointly compete for the United States
Putin faces domestic pressure due to the long -term drag of the Russian and Ukraine War. China also faces the downward test of the economy.Nevertheless, when the Harbin conflict has caused the turbulent situation in the Middle East to impact geopolitics, the outside world estimates that in this major diplomatic occasion in Beijing, China and Russia will show the "unlimited" partnership between the two countries and join forces to compete with the attitude of the United States and its Western alliances.Essence
The South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday that the differences between different camps of different camps with Harbin conflict are increasing.Sympathy for Palestinian southern countries and China and Russia stand together, while the United States seeks partners to support Israel.
For Putin, after the Ukrainian war led to Russia's increasingly falling into isolated, this trip to Beijing was a chance to show Russia's support for the main power of the world, but in China -Russia relations, China dominated by China -Russia relations, China dominatedStatus is getting stronger.
Russia's strategic dependence on China is increasing.
When Putin was interviewed by China CCTV before departing from Beijing, President Xi Jinping praised Chinese President Xi Jinping as "one of the world's recognized leaders"And saying that Xi Jinping is not a leader based on a momentum, he will analyze and evaluate the situation, and focus on long -term considerations in the future.
Putin also said: "This is the difference between the real world leader and the person we call" temporary work ".Then disappear without a trace "
The" temporary worker "referred to by Putin is believed to be ridiculed some Western leaders.The analysis believes that Putin is doing well to China and has continued to increase its dependence on China after Russia's invasion of Ukraine by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Agence France -Presse reported that Moscow has been seeking to strengthen Beijing's deep cooperation with Beijing for several months, showing that China has occupied the upper hand in bilateral relations.Du Ben, an international expert at Jilin University, said that Moscow is now unprecedentedly dependent on Beijing, especially in the economic field.
China -Russia's trade has reached the highest point since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War this year.Voice of America reports that under the impact of international sanctions, China's import of oil on Russia provides a key lifeline for Moscow.According to statistics from China Customs data, the Financial Times, in the first half of 2023, China imported 11.4 million barrels of crude oil per day, an annual calculation increased by 11.7%year -on -year, an increase of 15.3%before the crown disease epidemic.Last year, the bilateral trade volume of the two countries also set a record of 190 billion US dollars.
So far this year, China's exports to Russia have increased by 57%.Data compiled by Bloomberg Economic Research Company show that in September, RMB accounted for almost half of all foreign exchange transactions in Moscow, while only 0.4%in January 2022.China is currently the largest importer of fossils in Russia, and coal transportation has doubled since 2020.
Russia also hopes to reach an agreement with China to sell more natural gas. Two Russian energy company giants have accompanied Putin to visit China.However, according to Agence France -Presse, Russian independent analyst Karachev believes that during the visit of Putin, China and Russia will not make progress in natural gas projects.Gabayev, director of the Eurasian Center of Carnegie, also said that Russia realized that China did not want to sign an agreement under the circumstances of a big fanfare, and said that "Chinese hands are in the hands of China."
The senior researcher of the Global Energy Center of the Atlantic Council analyzed Webber analyzed: "During the time of attacking Ukraine in Russia, Beijing has always maintained a 'pro -Russian -China -Deadly military assistance.The machine is mainly from China. "Reuters reports that Hirurojov said that Moscow will spend more than $ 618 million for the development of national projects for the development of drones.
The Ministry of Commerce of China said in April this year that the drone produced in China has not been exported to the Ukrainian battlefield, and criticized the United States "to spread false information about the export of Chinese drones without the basis of the United States.Enterprise rumoring ".From September 1st, China has implemented export control for specific items of unmanned aircraft or unmanned airships such as the civilian anti -drone system or drones.
Agence France -Presse quoted the European Foreign Relations Commission Policy Researcher Bashalska analyzed that China does not want to see Russia severely weakened.Once the Russian government collapses, it will be regarded as a "serious security threat."
China bets too much bet on Putin?
For China, Russia is not only the main source of oil and natural gas, but also the source of military technology.The Peninsula TV reports that the Chinese PLA seeks modernization of routine and nuclear equipment by 2035. As the world's largest nuclear country, Russia can provide technical sharing.According to the US evaluation in 2022, in recent decades, Russia has been sharing aviation, Rockets and even submarine technology with China.
In addition, China and Russia also depending on each other's indispensable barriers in the game that jointly resist Western dominant positions.Bloomberg analyzed reports that China is seeking Russia as a partner for building a vision of global order in order to strengthen its long -term distrust of the United States and its military allies and in order to strengthen its strength in Taiwan.It is reported that if the PLA attacks Taiwan, Russia can play a vital role in ensuring food and fuel supply and providing political cover at the United Nations Security Council.
但报道也说，有些北京专家和学者认为，中国除了为部分国产汽车、电视和智能手机开拓俄罗斯市场，以及低价购得俄罗斯石油和天然气外，从中俄关系中They didn't get much, they questioned whether Beijing was betting on Russian leaders too much betting.
Jacobovsky, deputy director of the Warsaw Oriental Research Center, said that for Chinese elites that do not agree with Russia's war, Russian leaders are increasingly a burden on the Chinese government.
It is reported that China is trying to find a balance between the United States and Russia, but the longer the conflict is dragged, the more difficult it is to balance.China does not provide Russia with any major military assistance that will cause US sanctions to Chinese sanctions, and also warns Russia not to use nuclear weapons and attacked civilians.China and Russia are notSimilarly, China hopes to maintain a stable relationship with the United States. The leaders of the two countries may meet at the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC) summit held in San Francisco in November.
China and Russia move closer to the United States' leading Western camps, but they are not intimate.China has expanded its influence in Central Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative, and also stepped into Russia's traditional backyard.Bloomberg reports that this is one of the factors that trigger Sino -Russian relations.
Bloomberg's economist Isaakov, an economist in charge of Russian affairs, said that Russia is currently incomparable with this imbalanced relationship with China.Will have to bear most of the costs. "
Sun Yun, the co -director of the East Asian project of the American Think Tank Stin Sheng Center, believes that Beijing is not good at relying on the current advantages.She said that Russia's current strategic quagmire will not continue forever. "For Beijing, the focus is not necessarily how much Russia is preparing to pay, but what price China must bear."
Between the great powers, they will fight for their own interests, how much costs are bearish, and how much the price pays is definitely the calculation.In addition to shaking hands on the stage, there is a wishes on the stage.Each needs to be the essence, which requires greater love, and is also a manifestation of pragmatic diplomacy.
