Early
Point
Blue, green, yellow and red
Wen Weizhong
Regarding the unity of cross -strait unification, few people have not been in the discussion recently.
Chen Mingtong, director of Taiwan National Security, said in the Legislative Yuan on Thursday (October 20) that next year, mainland China may use war talks. For example, through the blockade, Taiwan is forced to go to the negotiating table.
In other words, Chen Mingtong stated in detail with an official position: next year, the mainland may solve the Taiwan problem, and the method is to force talks with war.
Recently, various signs show that the mainland is determined to solve the problem of unified and is likely to accelerate.
In the political report read out in the opening ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Sunday (16th), the mainland and China official Sunday (16th) reiterated that they would do their best to strive for peace and unity, but they never promised to give up the use of force.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented the next day that Beijing is determined to accelerate the unified process and resort to force.
U.S. Navy Battle Minister Michael Gilday will emphasize on Wednesday (19th) that Beijing may be prepared at the end of this year, and the U.S. military is now ready for this.He believes that in the past 20 years, the CCP has almost fulfilled every military commitment early, so it cannot be ruled out as soon as the end of this year or next year.
In the past two years, the mainstream analysis of the Taiwan -US military and scholars is the most dangerous of the Taiwan Strait situation from 2025 to 2027.The reason is that in the Taiwan election in January 2024 and the US presidential election in November of the same year, the political situation is full of uncertainty. The relatively stable mainland China will make static brakes. After the results of the Taiwan -US elections, a new situation will be made.
If the hope of unity is becoming more and more slim, the mainland may convert the annual military training in early 2025 into a attack operation, or before the PLA established a century in 2027, and the Chinese official pursuing the fourth five -year term, the cross -strait unity was resolved.The question allows Chinese officials to lay the historical status of comparable to the revitalization of the Maoze Revolution and Deng Xiaoping's reform.
However, Chen Mingtong's statements and positions are not before and after, which also attracted criticism.He had shouted many times in the past, saying that Cai Yingwen would not have a war during his tenure (Cai Yingwen stepped down in May 2024). Suddenly, on Wednesday, he suddenly changed his mouth to the opponent and the CCP would not be the island.The Chinese Communist Party will transfer the internal pressure and may be talking about war next year.
He also warned that Beijing's force was impossible to win. He was unable to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation because of the economic sanctions and diplomacy, and became a national sinner.
Some comments questioned that Chen Mingtong could pave the way for the DPP government to create an atmosphere of anti -China -China Polymerization Taiwan in 2024.The speeches of the US generals and dignitaries have also been interpreted as intensifying the regional situation. They intervene in the United States to find footholds, continue to let Taiwan invest in military reserve, and become a thermal arsenal against the PLA.
Will the mainland start a wonderful attack on Taiwan next year in order to divert internal pressure?The key may not be the outside world how to evaluate and speculate, but whether the mainland self -assessment can make a quick decision and ensure that it is in line with national rejuvenation and national interests.
The context of war -to -war is reminiscent of the Taiwan -locking military exercise in early August.It cannot be ruled out that the mainland blocks Taiwan in the name of exercises, and adopts a surrounding support strategy. The deployment of missiles in the Taiwan Strait is irreversible.
If the United States and Japan abandon the assignment of troops, Taiwan can only take the negotiating table and accept the unified conditions set by the mainland?
Taiwan's security predicament has continued to pay attention.When the main military and warships continued to cross the midline of the Taiwan Strait, experts believed that the Taiwan Strait crisis since August has not been lifted.
In response to the statement of war, Professor Zhao Chunshan, an expert on cross -strait relations between Taiwan, did not agree. He believed that the mainland should focus on dealing with internal personnel and economic issues next year, and it is impossible to attack Taiwan.
He also pointed out that the two sides of the strait should think about avoiding the war. First, they resumed cross -strait civil exchanges next year, creating a favorable atmosphere for the cross -strait dialogue after the new government was selected in 2024.
The key to the Taiwan Strait crisis is that China and the United States are conflict. Taiwan cannot control the evolution of Sino -US relations. However, in addition to the border selection station, Taiwan should also play a more influential role.
There are indeed contradictions on both sides of sovereignty.To get along with the mainland, Taiwan must be ambiguous. Back to the fuzzy space of the 1992 consensus, only the two sides of the strait can be talked about.If the Democratic Progressive Party continues to be in power, it is necessary to take one more step to abolish the Taiwan independence party's platform, otherwise the people will never have mutual trust.
As for the relationship between Taiwan and the United States, one side of the United States will only lead to death.Quoting Professor Zhao Chunshan on a public lecture on Wednesday, since the United States is unwilling to marry Taiwan after divorce with the mainland, and will always only treat Taiwan as an obedient lover.No, you cannot repeat the tragic situation of the United States in Afghanistan.
It is expected that in the predicament of the Sino -US strategic confrontation, Taiwan will give full play to the wisdom of survival. In addition to the dual thinking of pro -American or pro -China, anti -China, or suspicion, we will get out of a living path to avoid the tragedy of war.
