Source: Bloomberg
Author: Mackenzie Hawkins, Jennifer Welch, Mario Parker, Eleonora Mavroeidi
The trade war launched by Trump has destroyed the economic relations between the two global superpowers of China and the United States.If he can be elected again, the trade connection between the two countries may be completely cut off.
The former president proposed a 60%tariff on all China -US commodities.The analysis of Bloomberg's economic research shows that this will allow China's plan to export 575 billion US dollars (S $ 773.8 billion) to the United States.And if Trump can expand its weak lead in Biden's fierce leadership and win the November election, the upgrade of China that he may take will not only trade.
Whether for the Chinese economy or the stock market that has fallen by more than 40%from 2021, this is undoubtedly a bad news.To make matters worse, Trump's various remarks may put pressure on Biden, forcing him to take more stringent measures to China before the election day.
Bynden knows that the issue of China is related to votes, and past experience proves that people who adhere to the strong position of China can win in the election.Biden may not preach radical measures like Trump's tariffs. His cabinet team said that the United States does not want to decide with China.However, Biden may impose new restrictions on China in multiple fields, including data security, electric vehicles, etc., and he does not need to wait until the vote day to take action.
The atmosphere of the head of the head of state three months ago has cooled down. As the US elections approach the critical moment, the popularity of China's issue has risen again.For investors, Trump's latest tariff proposal may remind him of his first term. At that time, Twitter was full of trade policies that shocked the global market.
Chinese officials said they have no clear preference for who will be in power.According to Chinese officials who are unknown, although Trump's behavior is difficult to predict and often aggressive, he likes to reach an agreement and may weaken the efforts of Bayeng's cooperation with American allies.
Sang Baichuan, a professor at the University of Foreign Economic and Trade and a consultant of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that they are all threatened.
Sang Baichuan believes that the U.S. priority policy of Trump may create opportunities for China to break through the anti -China economic circle.He refers to Biden's ability to exclude China outside the technology supply chain.However, in any way, Beijing will face a U.S. president who "eliminates and curbs China's development".
Trump tariff shock
Trump said last week when he answered the question about raising tariffs on China to 60%, his goal was to "bring the enterprise back to the United States."His first -presidential tariff during his term of president has caused a gap in the income obtained by Chinese exporters from the US market.And 60%of tariffs will turn this gap into a crater.According to the global economic model, Bloomberg's economic research estimates that the US imports from China will drop significantly from 22%before the trade war to close to zero.
The most affected will be the textile and electronics industries. At present, China has dominated the world in these two industries, but the profit is small and the factory cannot digest tariffs.The model of Bloomberg's economic research shows that with the transfer of trade flow due to geopolitics, Southeast Asia and Mexico will undertake a large part.US Electronics will also be impacted because many of their products are produced in China.American companies and consumers will eventually pay higher prices for imported products.
Tariffs may be the most striking economic proposal for the Trump campaign team, but not the only one.The former president hinted that a new ban on the implementation of two -way investment in the United States and China (Biden has tightened the relevant regulations in this field), and its vow to exclude China outside the "basic industry" of the United States and ensure that US funds do not have funds in the United States.It will promote China's rise.
Trump told reporters in Haihu Manor on Thursday, "China has taken away our business, which is unprecedented."Regarding the tariff plan for the second term, he said, "This approach allows us to bring our business and manufacturing back to the United States."
He accused the Biden government of losing the interests of the United States.
Campaign commitments can not always be transformed into government policies, especially when their influence in the real world is so destructive.However, if you want to learn from Trump's first term, it is that his anti -Chinese speech often has this impact.
For China, the prospect of economic conflict between China and the United States is not the time.
The Chinese government is working hard to deal with the real estate collapse. This oldest growth momentum has become a major drag on the current economy. The decline in the stock market has evaporated the $ 7 trillion wealth.China's major economic officials have recently strengthened their exchanges with US counterpart officials. It is planned to welcome US Treasury Minister Yellen to visit Beijing this year, with a view to stabilizing the relationship with China's largest export market.
In view of Trump's approach to win the Republican nomination and the support rate in the key swing state, investors have been ready to affected the impact.
The threat of Trump's 60%tariff rate has led Chinese companies such as cheap retailers and solar panel manufacturers to be sold.Goldman Sachs economist reports that Trump's influence is one of the most commonly asked questions that Beijing and Shanghai investors.
Election popularity
Historical experience shows that the year of the United States will always cause trouble.
Trump and Biden, one stir up a trade war and one expands the scope of the trade war, they all show a tougher attitude towards China.
Tariffs are the first choice for Trump in the early days of governing, but as the policy of China is more tough, he has brought out more "weapons".Trump tried to prohibit WeChat and Tiktok operate in the United States by administrative order.In addition, he also implemented a series of export control and sanctions on Chinese enterprises. The most famous target is Huawei, a telecommunications equipment giant.During Trump's tenure, he defined human rights in Xinjiang as racial extinction.
When Bayeng came to power, the consensus of the two parties was a fundamental threat to the United States.Although Biden restored the diplomatic "guardrail" and more milder resignation of China, the essence of the relationship between the two countries is still a firm strategic competition.
In addition to tariffs, Biden also targeted China's competitiveness in the field of cutting -edge technology.He implemented export restrictions on semiconductor and chip manufacturing equipment, while taking measures to promote the development of these industries in the United States. In addition, the Bayeng government is also establishing a screening and review mechanism for the US's investment in overseas artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
One of the key differences between Biden and Trump is that Trump's approach has a stronger trading nature (he seeks to reach a trade agreement with China to help him win), and often looks more like it is more likeFighting alone.Trump has repeatedly disputes with American allies and opponents on trade issues. He plans to punitive measures against the EU after he was elected in November.
In contrast, Biden has established a wider alliance to prevent China from destroying the United States dominated world order, and this alliance has common interests.Biden can persuade the Dutch and Japanese government to squeeze China in semiconductor technology and restrict the sales of key companies such as Dutch chip equipment giants ASML.
Before the Russia invaded Ukraine and during the war, the alliance between China and Russia enhanced the United States to strengthen the above arguments.In the past, European allies regarded China as market opportunities rather than geopolitical threats. With the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, they began to pay more attention to the warning of the United States, including the risk of attacking Taiwan in mainland China.
Some influences can be measured.According to estimates in Bloomberg's economic research, if Trump has not levied tariffs on China,China's exports to the United States will be $ 160 billion higher than it is now.Other factors, such as the impact on confidence, are more difficult to quantify.
However, the overall impact is clear and negative.China's economic growth has declined, and the views of enterprises and Wall Street have a bleak view of China.
Before the US election, the Chinese economy may face greater pressure.
Eight items clearly made on China's administrative orders and most of Trump's export control and sanctions were released in the last year of his tenure. At that time, he also closed the Chinese consulate in Houston in Houston.
Byndon's meeting with Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November began with enthusiasts. At the end, both sides hoped that the relationship between the two countries would be partially thaw.However, the Biden team also arranged some operations to China before the election.
The U.S. government is formulating more stringent actions for the provisions of investors in China.The White House is also ready to open a new front: data security.One of the measures is that in multiple industries restricting transactions involving sensitive personal data, this regulation may be announced as early as this week.In addition, the government is also considering the implementation of Chinese electric vehicles and other so -called "smart cars" because they bring data risks.
The United States is still discussing higher tariffs on electric vehicles and clean energy products, as well as older semiconductor semiconductors.All of this may happen before voting in November, and they directly threatened to a high -tech industry that China regarded as the hope of economy.
When asked about the attitude towards China before the election, the White House quoted the comments from the national security adviser Sha Liwen at the end of last month.
Sarawon outlines economic measures taken by the US government for national security at the time in his speech, including investment and trade restrictions on China.He said that there is "competitive structural dynamics" in US -China relations, but this competition "may not cause conflict, confrontation or new cold war."
China will not wait and wait and see.Beijing officials are introducing a large amount of investment into the manufacturing industry, in order to achieve technological breakthroughs to achieve self -sufficiency.Last year, Huawei's sales revenue soared to nearly $ 100 billion. The company released a smartphone equipped with advanced chips, which shows that it shows that China has defeated the US chip enclosure.
