The US Democratic and Republican parties have ushered in the preliminary election of the presidential election. The latest polls announced by Reuters / Iposo on January 25 show that former President Trump is currently supporting 40 % support and leading aheadThe current President Biden is six percentage points.Two political people who are called "Sichuan founding the country" and "worshiping" by Chinese netizens may be confronted again at the end of the year, and repeat the White House battle four years ago.Trump, who is emotionally superimposed in Trump, returns to the DPRK, is concerned about China. At present, it is not easy to conclude, but there are indeed advantages and disadvantages.
The previous US presidential election, some Chinese public opinion publicly expressed his hope that Trump was re -elected, because he "made the United States look particularly strange, recruited and hates", and he had "like (former US Secretary of State) PompeoCrazy people "make the Chinese people" more united. "
From the perspective of the post -development development, it defeated Trump's Biden and made the United States less recruited with sophisticated diplomatic wrist. In the past four years, China's external environment has continued to be complicated and serious.
Biden, who held high value of diplomatic flags, came to power in early 2021 and then abandoned the US -priority and isolation of foreign policy in the Trump era, and raised its comprehensive strategic competition with China as the best priority.
Bayeng and quickly rebuild Trump's four -year -old allies of the allies, mobilizing the small and multilateral mechanism in the Indo -Pacific region, and organized a systematically and systematically.The "three sea linkage" situation.
Once Trump, who does not work in accordance with the rules, can be expected that the United States allies will be reopened by the White House, and value diplomacy will be discarded.Biden's hard -working military alliance system and the high wall of the small courtyard will also make the dragons from the top of a scattered sand. The common force of the United States and the allies to curb China's common force will definitely be greatly reduced.For Beijing, I believe it is a great benefit.
On the issue of Taiwan, Trump has continued to take advantage of businessmen's consideration and weigh the largest source of risks of the Indo -Pacific geopolitics in the past six months.On January 20th in the Fox News program, he avoided answering if Beijing launched an attack and would defend Taiwan as the president.
Trump also said that answering the question will make his negotiation situation very bad, and also said that Taiwan did take away all the chip business in the United States.
This is the same response in the same show since July last year, and hinted that Taiwan's security issues can be bargained.This publicly stated that the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan and let Beijing consider the martial arts options in the next four times, forming a strong contrast.
Chen Binhua, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of China, responded to Trump's problem of "defending Taiwan" on Wednesday (January 31), saying that the United States will always pursue "US priority", and Taiwan will change from "chess pieces" at any time to "abandoned children."" ".
Lai Qingde, who was characterized by Beijing as "stubborn Taiwan independence elements" and "troublemaker", took over as president in May this year, and the mutual distrust of the two sides of the strait has further deepened.If the White House of the United States is easy to change next January, Taiwan may have to pay a higher price with Trump, accelerating the speed of high -end chips to the United States in exchange for security commitments.
Once Taiwan has a fewer benefits in Trump's abacus, it is not ruled out that Beijing may consider promoting the unity of cross -strait in a tougher attitude and way. It may also try to trade with the White House and let the U.S. military look at the wall when they have something to do.After all, the military commitments that have been operated after World War II for a long time are credible and value in Trump's eyes is not high.
The same situation may also occur in the South China Sea, which has been upgraded since last year.Trump is holding the White House and may re -evaluate the United States' commitment to defending the Philippines. The Magakus government may lose its tough confidence in China.
Trump may also reduce the US military's budget investment in Japan and South Korea, and even meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong -un to continue the fourth meeting. The strategy of the "three sea linkage" will not break.Once the United States -led alliance system weakens, China will have more space to play an influence in international and regional affairs.
However, Trump is not good news for China as a second time.
It is highly likely to be a heavy responsibility for the national security and economic field to be in the field of national security and economy. The designer of the Sino -US trade war, Littichizer, and Pompeo, who are pro -platform.At that time, China's most benefited national treatment may be canceled, resulting in more than 40 % tariffs for Chinese transmission of goods in the United States. In addition to accelerating the decoupling of the United States and China, the intensity of the scientific and technological and trade war will be further upgraded.
The Washington Post quoted three sources on January 27 that Trump had discussed the possibility of uniformly levying 60 % tariffs on all Chinese imported goods with his consultant.This is a maximum of 25 % of the punitive tariffs of 25 % in the Sino -US trade war, which is significantly higher than 35 percentage points, which is equivalent to driving Chinese goods out of the US market.
Trump may also disregard the red line of mainland China on the Taiwan issue, testing Beijing's patience and determination, and accidents may cause military conflict.
Since the Sino -U.S. dollar met in San Francisco last November last year, the two countries have fully recovered high -level communication and dialogues. They walked out of the trough of the US House Speaker Perlus after visiting Taiwan in August the previous year.Bayon's re -election Sino -US relations will still be rugged, but the trend will be more expected.
Trump does not play cards according to common sense, and the uncertain road number is more likely to misjudge Beijing.Between the expected troubles and difficult troubles, it should not be good news to China. There are challenges. I believe that Beijing should have count and make plans and response.
