Li Hanyin: The impact of the crisis of Gaza on Chinas interests in the Middle Ea

Mainland China will closely pay attention to how the Gaza crisis affects the United States' attention to the territory of Taiwan and South China.The United States 'defense commitment to Israel will slow whether the pace of the United States' current efforts to improve Taiwan's repellarization and resist the attack capabilities of mainland China will affect mainland China's calculations on attacking Taiwan's necessity.If these efforts slow down or stagnate, Beijing will think that there is no need to attack Taiwan at a high price.

China actively strives to alleviate the crisis of the Gaza, because of deep concerns, that is, the conflict upgrade will trigger a wider range of regional wars and seriously damage China's huge economic interests in the Middle East.It is expected that China will also pay attention to whether the United States is involved in the Gaza crisis and whether it will weaken Washington's attention in Asia in Asia.

The Middle East has become the key node of China's "Belt and Road" initiative.Professor Wu Bingbing, director of the Department of Arabic Language and Culture at the School of Foreign Languages ​​and Middle East of Peking University, believes that China now regards the Middle East as part of its large surrounding part.

China launched the Belt and Road Initiative 10 years ago. From 2005 to 2022, China's investment and projects in the Middle East and North Africa had increased to US $ 273 billion (about S $ 366 billion, the same below).In 2021, the Middle East and North Africa accounted for 28.5%of China's overseas investment.In 2021, the trade volume of the Gulf Cooperation Council of China and the Persian Gulf reached US $ 330 billion, becoming the largest trading partner of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.

Promoting ceasefire

In the speech published and non -public, China will focus on alleviating conflicts, preventing humanitarian disasters in Gaza, and restoring negotiations to achieve solutions between the two countries.In the private calls of US Secretary of State Brillings and Israeli Foreign Minister Cohen, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that Israel must maintain restraint.On October 14, Wang Yi told Brinken that taking military means will only create more violence and urge the United States to work hard to achieve political solutions.In the call with Cohen on October 23, Wang Yi emphasized the urgency of preventing the Gaza crisis from upgrading.

At the Third Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit Forum held on October 20, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that eased the situation is a priority to eventually restore peaceful negotiations.China may take advantage of the rotating chairman of the United Nations Security Council in November and work harder to promote the ceasefire.

So far, China does not seem to urge Iran to keep restraint.On October 15, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said that Iran hopes to resolve conflicts through political means.In view of China's economic interests in the region and the leading leadership of Saudi Arabia and Iran's relaxation relationship, China may strongly urge Iran not to interfere with Gaza.

China believes that since the Middle East is the key node of the Belt and Road Initiative, it is very important to maintain the influence in the Middle East.China refused to clearly condemn Hamas's attack on October 7 and criticized Israel's reaction exceeding the scope of self -defense. It is a collective punishment for the Palestinians, and it is considered to continue to get Arabic support.

Before the recent crisis, China's assessment was that the Abraham agreement and Neiahhu were unwilling to resolve the reasonable concern of the Palestinians, making new violence more likely to happen.On the phone on October 15th, Wang Yi told Brazil's special consultant Celso Amorim that the Palestinian people's justice could not be expanded and was the crux of the Palestinian issue.

China and the United States have a narrow breakthrough in preventing the Gaza crisis from being upgraded to a wider regional war in the region of the region.China must assure Washington that it will work hard to discourage Iran's intervention in Gaza conflict.China may be prepared privately instead of making this guarantee openly.

Affects Beijing decision -making decision -making

Mainland China will pay close attention to how the Gaza crisis affects the United States' attention to the territory of Taiwan and the South China Maritime territory.The United States 'defense commitment to Israel will slow down the pace of the United States' current efforts to improve Taiwan's repellarization and resist the attack capabilities of mainland China, which will affect mainland China's calculation of the necessity of attacking Taiwan.

If these efforts slow down or stagnate, Beijing will think that it is not necessary and urgent to launch a high price against Taiwan.However, mainland China will continue to invade Taiwan's air defense identification zone because it considers this to prevent Taiwan from being independent of independence.Any reduction in Taiwan's attention to Taiwan will be used by mainland China to try to promote the establishment of closer relationships with China.

Is it more aggressive in the South China Sea?

In the South China Sea, the tension of the tension of the Second Thomas Reef (China is called Renai Reef, and the Philippines, and the Philippines),) The tension situation has been upgraded.During Duterte's presidential period, China had prevented Filipino vessels from repairing the Wud Sierra Madre tank landing ship, which participated in World War II.The Philippines had a garrison stranded on the warship of the second Thomas Reef.

On October 4th and 22nd, Chinese ships also tried to prevent supplies for the Philippine garrison.The latter incident caused the Philippine vessels to collide with the Chinese maritime police ship.China's strategy seems to prevent the replenishment of the garrison and the maintenance of the four -point landing ship, making the Philippines unable to maintain the garrison.

The decline in the United States' attention to the South China Sea will promote China to double its strategy.It may even consider taking tougher measures for Philippine vessels.

It is foreseeable that China will continue to promote Gaza ceasefire because China believes that it has a crucial and growing interest in the stable Middle East.If the United States falls into a quagmire in the Middle East, China will tend to think that time is still on one side, which will reduce the risk of China's invasion of Taiwan.But this will encourage China to double the "gray zone" tactics against Taiwan and the Philippines.

The author was a former researcher at the Ministry of National Defense of Singapore. Originally carried the "ThinkChina" of the English Electronics Magazine "ThinkChina" of the Fulcrum website of Yusov Isa Easa South Asia Research Institute.