The eighth presidential election campaign in Taiwan officially launched.The Kuomintang Hou Youyi challenged Lai Qingde of the Democratic Progressive Party with the People's Party, Ke Wenzhe, and the three major political parties compete. Everyone is observing whether Lai Qingde can break the "eight -year spell" that has appeared two times before (compiled: DPP and the Kuomintang since 2000Continuously governed for more than eight years), and the Democratic Progressive Party ruling power.Before the candidate was officially registered, Lai Qingde's polls led all the way. In addition, the blue and white union failed, so many people thought that he could be elected as he was lying.
Recently, the situation has changed. Lai Qingde's public opinion support encountered the ceiling and never went up; Hou Youyi grew slowly and gradually threatened Lai Qingde; Ke Wenzhe fell to face a marginal crisis.
The Democratic Progressive Party has the advantage of governing to facilitate the use of national resource assistance. However, due to the poor governing performance in eight years, the evaluation of abuse and corruption is endless. There are about half of the public opinion looking forward to the rotation of the party.heavy.It is difficult for him to propose a new policy that is completely different from the existing policies, and the relationship between the United States and China is relieved.The image of his lingering Taiwan independence also made the people worrying about the war.
On the 24th of the election registration deadline, Hou Youyi, the nominated by the Kuomintang, and Wu Wenying, deputy, the party chairman of the party, and Wu Wenzhe, Wu Wenzhe, went to the Election Association to register for the election and challenge the DPP "Lai Xiao Gao" who had completed the registration earlier.During the remaining 40 days of campaign sprinting, the expected expectations of many people have changed.If Lai Qingde could not break through the ceiling, and finally tilted to Hou Youyi or Ke Wenzhe in the wild, that is, to produce a large -scale abandonment effect, the votes concentrated towards one party, and the peak circuit could be turned to make the "get off the DPP" successful.
On the eve of the candidate registration, various polls have shown that Lai Qingde's support has fallen. The gap between Hou Youyi and the party's party Ke Wenzhe has opened.The polls completed on the 23rd of the Meilimao Electronics News showed that in the case of the "Lai Houke" three -member campaign, Lai Qingde only maintained a lead with 31.4%, Hou Youyi followed 31.1%, and the public party candidate Ke Wenzhe 25.2%At the end of the house, Lai and Hou were only 0.3 percentage points, which was the closest to one.
For the issue of "rotation of political parties", 27.8%of the people support the DPP to continue governing, but 26.8%also support the Kuomintang to do it, 16.5%support the power of the people party, and 2.9%supports the replacement of non -party members.Do.This result shows that the public opinion that agree with the party's governance has become the mainstream.After the three groups of Zheng and Vice President's candidate were generated, ETTODAY polls announced the presidential election poll on the 25th., Within a positive and negative range of 2.72%."Ke Ying Bai" ranked third in 21.2%, significantly backward.
This result shows that after Hou Youyi nominated Zhao Shaokang as the deputy, the pan -blue momentum rose, so the support rose rapidly.If this situation tends to be obvious, the presidential election will be a blue -green showdown this time.As far as the social evaluation of political parties is concerned, the Democratic Progressive Party, which was originally leading the leading position, has fallen significantly, falling to the point where the Kuomintang and the people have settled.
Political parties supported by the Foundation of Public Opinion Foundation on the 26th, 25.3%support the Taiwan people's party, 24.8%support the Chinese Kuomintang, and 24.5%of the Democratic Progressive Party.The support of the three parties is within the scope of the error, and the advantage of the DPP's monopoly is gone. This phenomenon is expected to be in line with the rotation of the political parties.The Kuomintang has a chance to reverse victory, and the people's party has also become a new choice for the people of the blue and green parties.
The change of the effect of abandoning insurance is the key
The three parties in the election campaign, the election situation is tight, and the change is unpredictable. In the end, whether the effect of abandoning the insurance at the end is a key factor.Hou Ke's final protection effect change is definitely the key to the last decisive victory, but the two seem to have the trend of Hou Shengkeu. If the Blue Camp supporters return a lot of return, it will have a great impact on Ke.Among the supporters, the pro -blue people may still be greater than the pro -green.On the other hand, the young ethnic group is the main supporter of Ke, and Ke will also be relatively young, which is a favorable situation for Hou, who lacks young tickets.
In fact, Zhao Shaokang, who was proficient in media networking and sophisticated and warfare from Hou, was the deputy. He went to the Kuomintang notice legislator to be handsome with the popular king of Han Han.The mayor of the three counties and 38 legislators, as well as the full assistance of various organizational forces, if the whole party is united up and down, further proposes to stabilize the peaceful cross -strait peace, effectively crack down on corruption, develop the economy, reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, bring youth to youngThe demands and policy routes of people's new hope will be able to expand the middle voters in the middle, and they can fight with Lai Qingde.
Hou Youyi, a Kuomintang candidate, showed like a criminal policeman in the final negotiation of Blue and Baihe, bravely fighting the gangsters, wisdom and courage, which is impressive.After Zhao Shaokang became a deputy, everyone said that Zhao Shaokang had a great role in completing his complementary effects and strong combat effectiveness. He could pull up Hou's momentum and compete with Lai Qingde.After Hou Youyi has a strong momentum, he is likely to pull away from Ke Wenzhe in the future, while closer his distance from Lai Qingde.
According to past experience, the more fierce the election campaign, the more stable the basic disk of the two strongs, and the more likely the third forces to be marginalized.The supporters of the candidate with a close position, in order to prevent the candidate who hate together, the greater the gap between the two candidate people's adjustment, or when the number of votes that the two gets a large gap, it is more likely to cause abandonment insurance.Effect, concentrate the votes on the most likely to win the candidate.Hou Youyi has the opportunity to become the beneficiary of the insurance effect.
At present, about half of the people expect political parties to rotate, in favor of the DPP's continued governors and supporting the Kuomintang Bao Zhong, Hou Youyi has changed from far behind Lai Qingde.In the end, some non -green voters were abandoned.
Hou Youyi is really the possibility of defeating Lai Qingde?Zhao Shaokang said: "As long as Ke Wenzhe's polls are reduced to less than 20%, the Kuomintang can win. What is it difficult?" This is not an impossible situation.
The Kuomintang has evolved from integration to the integration, and the unity within the party has also improved.At that time, Zhao Shaokang led the lead, founded the new party, and later experienced the mainstream and non -mainstream political struggles in the Lee Teng -hui era. There was no interruption of splitting or diversion in 30 years.The return of Zhao Shaokang symbolized the era of the Kuomintang's great divergence. The local blue and deep blue cooperated together. Recently, under the evil humiliation of Ke Wenzhe, he was even more powerful and fighting.The Kuomintang's other battle general South Korea Yu has also been fighting for the battle.He ranked first as the first candidate for the National Democratic Party of the Legislative Councilor, holding up the handsome banner of political party votes, and supporting Hou Youyi.
Hou, Zhao, and Han Lian's hand can mobilize the election campaign to abandon the gear, which drives the party's rotating momentum, which is conducive to moving in the direction of Hou Youyi in the wild.The combination of this election is far better than Ke Wenzhe's single -horse horse and the weak legislator election team of the people's party. It can even compete with the DPP. Whether it is a president or a legislator election, it can fight for male and female.Lai Qingde originally thought that he could win when he was lying down, and now he must stand up and choose.
The author is a senior media person in Taiwan's former chairman of the Central News Agency
