Source: Taiwan Wangbao Society Review
U.S. President Biden and President of Mainland China Xi Jinping met during the San Francisco APEC Summit, which was almost successful.Different from the Bali Island meeting last year, before San Francisco's "worshiping party", the two sides have developed frequent communication and dialogue. This meeting will no longer only have symbolic significance.After Trump came to power, the Taiwan Strait was reduced to a fierce battle due to the fierce confrontation between the United States and China. Nowadays, US -China relations are expected to improve. Regardless of the results of the 2024 election, it is beneficial to cross -strait relations.
The four tacit understanding of the United States and China
From Bali Island to San Francisco, the two "worshiping meetings" can be regarded as the "bottom -up period" after the rapid falling of the United States and China relations.In the case, based on their respective reality, a roadmap for restoring bilateral relations, and establishing four tacit understanding: First, it must not be involved in the war; second, the connection of the economic and trade connection cannot be replaced.Interested in maintaining existing economic and trade cooperation; third, they are eager to get out of the dilemma of civil exchanges for three years; fourth, cooperation should be opened on some global issues.
Based on the above -mentioned four -point tacit understanding, the United States and China spent the "balloon storm" sword tension, and finally launched intensive talks and mutual visits in the second half of the year, and achieved substantial results.Xi Jinping has repeatedly released a mild and positive signal to the US -China folk exchanges many times. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Minister of Commerce Raymond in the visit, and also took the opportunity to interact with the people on the streets, reversing Trump's launchAfter the trade war, the public opinion atmosphere of the two sides "Anti -United States VS. Anti -China" reduced the public opinion resistance of the United States and China to restore dialogue.The United States resumes the "Xiangshan Forum" in the Beijing Military Trip of the Beijing Military Railway, sent the "highest specifications in history" delegations to participate in the Shanghai Import Expo, and some adjustment measures for "indefinite exemptions" to China Gaogao technology control.
In the 1990s to 2010, the most popular sentence was "it is not good, and it can't go anywhere", but Obama returned to Asia Pacific in the later period. After Trump established the Indo -Pacific Strategy within his tenure,The gradual deterioration of US -China relations, not only the "structural conflict", "historic confrontation" and even the "new cold war" also occurred, but also produced a judgment of "the consensus of the United States and the United States."However, after all, human beings have entered the 21st century, and the mainland is no longer the ideological regime of anti -Su Xiu and the anti -American emperor in the Mao era, especially the two hot battles of Russia and Ukraine, and Evai, which makes the world know the world.In the cruelty of the war, the United States and China gradually returned to the orbit of pragmatic rationality.
Sub -party leader Shumo, the leader of the majority of party members of the US Senate in October this year, marked a cross -party member to visit mainland China.What is the result of the US 2024 election, whether Biden can keep the President's Great and whether Trump has come again, and the United States and China have established a "red line consciousness": that is, no military conflict, maintaining high -level communication dialogue, and maintaining economic and trade exchanges.What the two sides are most likely to wipe the guns and get angry is in the so -called "three sea": the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea.Among them, the latter two sea can be dealt with through high -level communication, but the Taiwan Strait is full of uncertainty because of the "third party" factor of Taiwan.
Redline consciousness reconstruction trilogy mutual trust
But some positive phenomena can be seen in the near future, reflecting on the issue of the United States and China on the Taiwan Strait, and is trying to eliminate the impact of the "third party" factors.First of all, taking the Xiangshan Forum as an example, although Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Mainland Government, said that although he said "never softened", the premise was set in "I want to split Taiwan from China".He Lei mentioned in an interview that "the problem of solving the Taiwan problem with force must be used to solve the Taiwan problem, but reiterating the unified" no timetable ". The two -phase comparison can be known that Beijing's martial arts in Taiwan is still a" passive response in extreme cases ", not subverting peace and unified policiesThe initiative to seek martial arts Taiwan.
Recently, the research report of the Taiwan Strait issue recently began to reconstruct mutual trust in the United States and Land.Ge Laiyi wrote in the New York Times, suggesting that the United States provides credible guarantees in Beijing. As long as Mainland China does not move against Taiwan, Washington will not support Taiwan's independence, nor will he restore the defense treaties in the past and Taiwan.For another example, the latest report of the International Crisis Organization to prevent the Taiwan Strait War from the fact that Washington should guarantee that Beijing should not seek permanent separation from Taiwan and the mainland. Taipei should guarantee that Beijing should not seek formal independence. Beijing should guarantee that Washington has not decided martial arts.
Worry about the "2027 martial arts time point" western strategy world, and began to express the importance of "not unique", and regarded it as the key to avoiding war and restoring peace in the Taiwan Strait.The long -term competition relationship between the United States and medium -term will not change, and the risk of unexpected conflicts is still very high, but the two sides will be committed to controlling differences and avoiding conflicts. Taiwan needs to find a new balance point under the new relationship structure of the United States and China.After the 2024 election, if the "blue and white" can be selected, they should have the opportunity to create a new balance point for cross -strait relations and get rid of the dilemma of the soldiers;From Taiwan and the mainland, it will also come from the international community.
