Source: Ming Pao
Ming Pao Society Review
The recently announced series of economic data reflects the stability of China's economy, reaching a 5%predetermined target of 5%throughout the year, but the central government added a 1 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) Treasury bonds last week, and the central government last week.For disaster prevention, disaster, disaster relief and post -disaster recovery and reconstruction.This move to release the confidence of stable stability for economic development next year is conducive to playing the role of counter -cyclical regulation. Because all the funds issuance funds are transferred to local governments to use, in disguise to improve the debt resolution ability of local governments.Moreover, this debt issuance particularly highlights its general public characteristics, clarifying that the central government's fiscal deficit ratio has increased from 3%to 3.8%of the breaking record. It has released further active steering of fiscal policy to the outside world.The new trend of weighing plastic surgery is of great significance.
Special urgent general weight
Adding national bonds to take care of the long -term
China's national debt is divided into two types: "general" and "special". Generally, the issuance of government bond issuance is usually included in the government work report in advance.The State Congress of the Standing Committee of the State Council is considered and approved. The previous four special government bonds, from supplementing the capital of the four major state -owned banks, the capital of the state foreign exchange investment company, to the special purpose of anti -epidemic, and the risk of hedging the economy.In terms of nature, the funds for issuing government bonds are also designated. According to project management, it should be a special government bond; but the special government bonds are not included in the calculation of the deficit rate, and the additional issuance of national debt has clearly increased the deficit rate.According to the budget method, according to the actual situation, the State Council can directly ask the National People's Congress Standing Committee to adjust the budget of the year.It can be seen that the additional issuance is still a general government bond.
In the fourth quarter where economic data has stabilized, the government bonds were urgently issued, and the deficit rate was adjusted, indicating that this measure was both urgent and long -term.Although the target of 5%of this year's annual growth is basically incomparable, the growth of the Mainland economy next year is generally low.The national debt issued this time stated that half of the 500 billion yuan will be "used for use next year". The purpose is not only to consolidate economic growth this year, but also focus on the opening of the economy next year.Essence
Although China's economic growth in the first three seasons is higher than market expectations, there is still uncertainty, which means that risk prevention is a top priority. Only by preventing risks can we truly stabilize the expectations of economic growth.The downturn in the real estate industry dragged down the land finance, and some local governments had high debt risks, and the pressure on interest payment was high. It was the most prominent pressure to face the pressure of great "three insurances" (basic people's livelihood, salary and operation expenditure).Financial risk.More than 20 provinces this month issued nearly trillions of special recycling bonds to clear the old bonds.
Although the designated use of government bonds is to support post -disaster recovery and improvement of disaster prevention and saving disasters, it cannot be directly used for debt repayment or salary.However, the additional government bonds issued this time are transferred to the local government. From the perspective of funds, it can help local governments to adjust the budget structure, increase their disposable funds, and make it allow more resources for local debt work.The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress also authorized the State Council to issue some new local government debt limits in advance. Therefore, this combination of fisting is interpreted as the central government to help resolve the local debt crisis, which should be accurate.
On the night of the news, the FTSE A50 China Index Futures increased to 1.5%, and US stocks in the United States have risen collectively.In the early morning of the next day, the three major A -share indexes were widely opened, and steel, water, water, building materials, construction, construction machinery and other sectors were strong all day.It can be seen that the additional issuance of government bonds clearly releases a policy signal of stable economic growth, which has assigned the market.
Another signal passed by the newly issued Treasury bonds is to open the imagination space for the central fiscal deficit rate.For a long time, China has been strictly adhering to the Caica (deficit accounts for GDP) with a 3%warning line. In 2020 at the beginning of the impact of the epidemic, the deficit rate was only 3.7%.This year's debt issuance order increased from 3.88 trillion yuan to 4.88 trillion yuan this year, and the deficit rate rose from 3%to about 3.8%.On the one hand, the active side reflects the current pressure on economic development, and on the other hand, it reflects that policies pay more attention to practical results. The 3%deficit rate is no longer the insurmountable red line.Moreover, the Chinese government's debt ratio is only about 51%last year, which is a low level in the world, and the risk is generally controllable.
Another discussion brought about the issuance of government bonds this time is the reasonable division of central and local financial power, rights and even liabilities.After the former Prime Minister Zhu Rongji implemented a "tax division system" for strong branches and weak branches, the central government occupied most of the taxation, but local governments had to bear the responsibility of economic development and people's livelihood benefits, which led to the issue of land finance and local debt.Today, the land foam burst, land finance is difficult to succeed.The reorganization of the central and local financial power is also on the stage.
Broken Caima 3%Introduction
Central local rights and responsibilities or redesign
Statistics show that the debt of most countries in the world is mainly the central government debt. Last year, the average proportion of the debt in various countries was 89%, and the median was 96%.According to different calibers, China's proportion is only about 19%to 27%. Even if the local government bonds issued by the central government are counted as the central government debt, this ratio is only 46%to 65%, which is still low.EssenceAs a single system, local power in China is authorized by the central government. Local governments at all levels are only sent by the central government. They are not independent political entities. From a legal point of view, the central and local governments have unlimited responsibilities.
In view of the fact that local governments have difficulty in paying more responsibilities, the central government has assumed the right to prevent disaster prevention, mitigation and disaster relief through this newly issued Treasury bond.Whether it will bear more public service liability in the future, which not only supports localized debt and steady growth, but also accelerates the equalization of public services, will be an indicator of the central government and local power and responsibility.
