From the perspective of Israel, the strategic risk is so high enough to ignore the desperate request of the Armenians and not support a country that suffers racial extinction like Jews.Israel even refused to acknowledge the massacre of Turkey during the First World War and later.Israel's immoral behavior in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is exactly the same as its so -called realistic politics in the Ukrainian war.
Like civil war, racial and religious conflicts often only end in one way: one party fails completely.These conflicts aroused such a strong passion that the peace agreement was extremely difficult to negotiate. Even if they were reached, they fundamentally fragile, almost impossible to execute, and it is very likely to collapse.The war around Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) is no exception.Nakaka is a flying land in the territory of Azerbaijan, which is mostly Muslim, and lives about 120,000 Amenian Christians.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, a bloody mutual racial cleaning broke out in the Nakaka area.For the next decades, despite the endless mediation and a series of peace proposals, the tension situation continued to ferment, and from time to time, it evolved into violent conflicts.In 2020, the six -week brutal battle caused thousands of people to be killed.
But in late September this year, through the 24 -hour military offensive, Azerbaijan regained its control over the region, forcing the self -proclaimed Republican President Samvel Shahramanyan to sign the dissolution country.Organization.The decree has confirmed that starting next year, the Republic of the Nacca (known as the Republic of Artsakh) will "no longer exist."In fact, almost all residents of the flying land fled to Armenia.
After 30 years after being ruled by a separatist molecule in the Nakaka area, why does Azerbaijana now recover this flying land?The imbalance of power between the Azerbaijan government and the separation of the Republic has always been unbalanced.But since its independence in 1991, Naka has been protected by Armenia.Armenia is a Russian traditional Christian allies and a member of the collective security treaty led by Russia.
All of this changed with Russia's full invasion of Ukraine last year.Russia, which isolated by the world, has been seeking new allies to help strengthen its position in the region and bypass Western sanctions.Azerbaijan is an ideal candidate.
In fact, even before Russia knew that it would face the sanctions scale faced by the Ukrainian war, it had deepened its relationship with Azerbaijan.A few days before the invasion of Ukraine, the two countries signed a political and military treaty. According to Azerbaijan President Aloyev, this is equivalent to establishing a formal alliance.Since then, the treaty has expanded to including information sharing and economic transactions, especially in the energy field.
So far, Russia has actually abandoned the Naka area.Although Russia deployed peacekeeping forces in 2020 to defend Narca's Lachin Corridor, Lachin Corridor, Lachin Corridor, it did not prevent Azerbaijan from blocking the corridor in December last year.It did not take any action to prevent the disintegration of this flying land.
For Azerbaijan, compared to the West, which insists on confession through fair negotiations, Russia provides a popular alternative option.Last month, when Azerbaijan dispatched military forces to occupy Naka, the United States and other Western diplomats were trying to promote the foreign minister of Azerbaijan and Armenia to reach a peace agreement.
Azerbaijan does not want to alienate the West completely, especially because the United States provides them with millions of dollars worth millions of dollars each year.However, it is deceived by the way it is in contact with the West: when Europe seek to replace natural gas supply to get rid of the dependence on Russia, Azerbaijan has increased exports, but partially uses natural gas imported from Russia.In any case, it will not sacrifice its "territorial integrity" for the peace agreement of the Western mediation.
For the people of Nakaka, the so -called "self -determination" requirements, including comprehensive and unconditional status, cannot be realized at all.Nakaka did not realize that every time he was proposed, he created a new opportunity for the resolution of force to resolve the conflict.It was not until this self -proclaimed Republic that was about to come to an end that Shahramannan admitted that Nakaka's requesting for a comprehensive country was unrealistic about the applicability of international law.In the end, the power gap that decisive is the gap.
Worse, the West cannot provide the support to the land to provide it with the support that it has given Persia or Kosovo.The agreement that promises ethnic autonomy, a Western peacekeeping forces, and a war court court like the Dayton Accords, and set up a war court court.This has led Russia to use their own peacekeepers and strategic understanding of its strategic understanding with Ariyev, from controlling the situation.
Israel is also responsible for the new situation in the Caucasian region.Over the years, it has been consolidating alliances with Azerbaijan to fight against Iran's common enemy.Today, Israel provides nearly 70%of Azerbaijana weapons. In return, Azerbaijan provides about 40%of Israel's energy demand. On the Iranian border, it provides a strategic whistle for Israel and help consolidate the new reconciliation relationship between Israel and Turkey, Azerbaijan.A main goal of Azerbaijan's foreign policy is to achieve reconciliation with soil relationships.
From the perspective of Israel, the strategic risk is so high enough to ignore the desperate request of the Armenians and not support a country that suffers racial extinction like a Jew.Israel even refused to acknowledge the massacre of Turkey during and after the First World War.Israel's immoral behavior in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is exactly the same as its so -called realistic politics in the Ukrainian war. Its demand for Ukraine's weapons is obviously indifferent. It is an example.
The United States may be considering sanction in Azerbaijan and strive to deepen its security and economic relations with Armenia.However, although Russia may be exhausted, the South Gaoco Pacian still belongs to its natural force, and it is also an important wing of the Ukrainian war.The Kremlin is almost unlikely to relax its control over the area.
English Original: The West Should avoid Nagorno-Karabakh All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.
