The career of former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has experienced dramatic ups and downs in a short period of time, raising questions about what happened at China's top levels and how it will affect China's future internal affairs and diplomacy.
China's National People's Congress Standing Committee held a meeting on Tuesday (July 25) and announced the removal of Qin Gang as Foreign Minister and the reappointment of Wang Yi as Foreign Minister. At this time, it was only more than half a year since Qin Gang took office as Foreign Minister, and the reason for his dismissal was not explained.
Some analysts believe that the Qin Gang incident highlights the opacity of Chinese politics and damages China's image.
"The Qin Gang incident is not good for the CCP's image abroad and even at home," Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a senior researcher at the Paris Asia Center, told BBC Chinese.
“The incident highlights a degree of instability within the leadership, possible policy disagreements, an unprofessional manner in which top officials are promoted, and a level of political opacity that is inconsistent with China's claims to become an economic, social and economic powerhouse. Even political globalization does not match the ambitions of global powers. ”
After Qin Gang stepped down, Wang Yi returned to take charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. How to interpret the replacement of China's foreign ministers?
Behind the scenes is "Determined to be one statue"
Before China's National People's Congress Standing Committee announced its decision, Qin Gang had risen rapidly through the ranks of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, surpassing more experienced figures. Some people believe that this is closely related to his close relationship with President Xi Jinping.
Qin Gang is the youngest foreign minister since China's reform and opening up. Before becoming minister, he served as the U.S. ambassador to China. He did not have much experience in dealing with the United States before and had never been stationed in the United States.
Only three months after he took over as Minister of Foreign Affairs in December 2022, he was promoted to State Councilor at this year's "Two Sessions" in Beijing, which surprised the outside world. Normally, it is more reasonable to be promoted to State Councilor after two to three years.
The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress held a meeting recently and decided to remove Qin Gang from the position of foreign minister after he had served for only more than half a year, which once again shocked people.
"The ups and downs of Qin Gang have highlighted Xi's power of being determined to be one," Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of international relations at Bucknell University in the United States, told BBC Chinese.
"Qin is Xi's favorite general. The key figures behind his rapid promotion and sudden disappearance are all Xi."
Unsolved mysteries
It is still difficult to judge whether Qin Gang's sudden removal will implicate other people and how it will affect China's internal affairs.
"There are many unsolved mysteries in this dismissal," Gao Jingwen said. "If the dismissal was due to an extramarital affair, then he should not have been appointed in the first place." But the fact that he took office suggests that either the selection process was not rigorous enough, or that some of his detractors later found an opportunity to get rid of him. ”
He also pointed out that "Wang Yi's performance throughout the entire process is also a mystery." Did he support Qin's appointment, or did he later realize that Qin was inconsistent with his approach in relations with the United States or "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy? Hard to say. ”
Zhu Zhiqun believes that assuming Qin Gang is under investigation, the results of the investigation may take some time to come out, and the specific truth will not be fully announced. Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether his removal will involve others.
Even if part of the investigation results are released, he believes it will not affect China's internal affairs to a great extent.
"The CCP will try its best to control the impact of this case on the party and the government, especially not to let this case affect Xi's reputation. After all, Qin was promoted by Xi." ”
Some analysts also pointed out that Qin Gang's rapid ups and downs in a short period of time are not a special case in China's opaque politics.
Bonnie Glaser, Asia director of the German Marshall Fund, a think tank in Washington, said: "The turmoil surrounding Qin Gang has been reflected in other aspects of China's policies, such as a major reversal in COVID-19 policies and economic policies. ”
She said that China's pan-security approach to all issues is the "root cause of turmoil."
In May 2022, Qin Gang, then Chinese Ambassador to the United States, was in Texas.
What to do about China’s diplomacy
Scholars interviewed pointed out that Qin Gang's dismissal will not have a huge impact on China's foreign policy.
"The foreign minister is not a very powerful official in China. Wang Yi, Cai Qi and, of course, Xi Jinping himself are much more influential," Gao Jingwen said.
"Qin is the policy implementer, not the policy maker," Zhu Zhiqun said.
After Qin Gang resigned as foreign minister, Wang Yi returned to the post. Wang Yi will also continue to serve as director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee and also hold the highest diplomatic position of the party and government.
"This arrangement shows that the CCP hopes to stabilize the overall diplomatic situation as soon as possible and prevent the Qin Gang incident from affecting China's diplomacy and international image. It also shows that there will be no changes in China's foreign policy and implementation in the near future," Zhu Zhiqun said.
"Wang Yi's return has injected stability and continuity into China's diplomacy."
Eurasia Group, a US political risk consulting firm, believes that holding the highest diplomatic position of the party and the government at the same time allows Wang Yi to supervise the implementation of policies.
"This may strengthen Beijing's consistency in releasing diplomatic messages and practical actions, while further solidifying the party's strong guidance on foreign affairs." ”
The agency believes that compared with Qin Gang, Wang Yi's diplomatic style is known for being "abrasive". For example, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Wang Yi in Beijing in June this year, the two of them behaved like this. The difference is immediately apparent.
"With Wang Yi's return to the Foreign Ministry, Chinese diplomats may once again lean toward a more aggressive 'Wolf Warrior' style, which could complicate the Biden administration's efforts to maintain and solidify the recent thaw in bilateral relations." ”
Wang Yi is 69 years old, exceeding the practice of "seven up and eight down" for national leaders, and will be 70 years old in October this year.
Wang Yi: Transitional Foreign Minister?
It is unclear whether Wang Yi will only serve as foreign minister on a temporary basis or whether he will continue until the next party congress in 2027. Wang Yi is 69 years old, exceeding the practice of "seven ups and eight downs" for state-level leaders, and will be 70 years old in October this year.
Scholars interviewed believe that Wang Yi's appointment as foreign minister should be of a transitional nature. It is expected that a new foreign minister will be appointed by the end of this year and further confirmed when the National People's Congress meets in March next year.
China has several major diplomatic missions in the second half of this year, including the Group of Twenty (G20) leaders' summit in New Delhi, India, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco.
"These major events require veteran Wang Yi to take the helm," Zhu Zhiqun said.
Wang Yi served as Foreign Minister from 2013 to 2022 and is one of Xi Jinping's trusted advisers.
Although Qin Gang was removed from the post of Foreign Minister, his status as State Councilor has not been revoked. However, a few hours after the National People's Congress Standing Committee issued the announcement, most of Qin Gang's previous diplomatic activities had been deleted from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website. This does not seem to be a positive sign.
According to the Organic Law of the National People's Congress, the position of State Councilor belongs to the members of the State Council, who are nominated by the Premier of the State Council and decided by the National People's Congress. The removal of positions also needs to be made during the recess of the National People's Congress based on the request of the Chairman's Conference and the Premier of the State Council.
This means that whether to revoke or not seems to be just a matter of time and procedure, and is expected to be announced when the National People's Congress convenes in March next year.
