I should first say: Mr. Li Guangyao, happy birthday!He has died for eight years since his death.If he is still alive, he will pay deep attention to the external environment, and he will be angry with what happens in China.However, I believe that he hasn't come to the time when he jumped up from the grave -he promised that if Singapore was terrible, he would do so.
Singapore's independence has achieved outstanding results in the past 60 years.We successfully survived the global financial crisis, economic recession, and bumps of structural reforms, but the geopolitical competition between China and the United States, and the invasion of Ukraine in Russia caused the situation to be more complicated.Essence
Internal good governance and cohesion are undoubtedly an important factor in Singapore's success.When we became an independent country, the United States showed unwavering leadership in the polarization world during the Cold War.Coincidentally, after we are independent, the world is tending to blend and globalization of each economy.These trends at the time and even today, they were beneficial to small countries and Singapore, and globalization brought prosperity and development.China has decided to take a market economy road with socialist characteristics, integrate with the world economy, and create huge opportunities for many countries, especially letting the region grow with them.
After 60 years, we have changed the stars, and the world order between us is changing rapidly.We are familiar with these changes.The principles of free trade, the investment of free circulation, and globalization have been widely questioned, and the United States, which supports capitalism and the free market economy.The United States has changed from hegemon to a non -voluntary hegemon, and then to a super power that wants to retract or retreat. However, in order to compete China ’s challenge to the United States, the United States has returned.The stable and stable old polarization order has given way for a differentiated multi -polarization trend.
Not returning to the Cold War Order
Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, we have clearly seen the United States and European allies, standing aside with the United States alliance in Asia, and Russia and China on the other side.Some people simply summarize that this is the order of returning to the Cold War.no.This time, a large series of countries stayed in the third space, that is, in the middle, without choosing edges, but practicing cooperation with multiple parties.They depend on the topic and join the organization or alliance in the United States, but they will also join the organization and initiative in China.For these countries, the formation of alliances does not mean that he is linked.
The United States is confused and is adapted to this rising "middle school" country.These countries choose to exercise their sovereignty, identity, and autonomy, and pursue a wide range of alliances.They see India, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries.China operates in a multi -polarized framework because it is beneficial to it.Under a multi -polarized framework, China is more likely to be promoted to be a pole with the United States and exert its influence.
Bynden's government has doubled hard and successfully strengthened the United States' alliance in Europe and Asia.It advocates launching many side branches, while strengthening bilateral defense cooperation with the Philippines.In addition to the establishment of the Quartet Security Dialogue (QUAD), the Pacific Strategy of India, and the AUKUS (AUKUS), NATO's two consecutive years also includes four Asia -Pacific countries -Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.The concept of NATO 2022 declares that the development of Indo -Pacific in the region will affect the security of Europe -Atlantic.The senior representative of EU diplomacy and security policy Berrely said in April 2023 when the European Parliament debated the Chinese issue in China: "Taiwan must be part of the peace around our geographical strategy."After the four -party meeting, they all agreed to expand national defense cooperation in the South China Sea.
Former Australian Prime Minister and the current Australian Ambassador to the United States, Lu Kewen emphasized that "strategic balance" and "Strategic Equilibrium and Strategic Deterrence" should be established in the competitive environment of geographical strategy to help SMEs find space to deal withGreater neighboring countries have grown military capabilities.It is important to introduce the concept of "strategic deterrence", but must be cautious.If "strategic deterrence" is absolute, or almost absolute, it may be regarded as provocative and triggering confrontation.This will further heat up the region, and whether such a powerful deterrence is really good for the peace and security of the region, it still needs to be observed.
Before we discuss further, I want to point out an important point: the way Southeast Asian countries are different from the United States.We have this problem between us and China, but we do not think of China as an enemy or opponent.Asia's country will agree that China has the right to continue development.Sometimes, some of us will say that China bullies, because its ships are close to the coastline of the South China Sea to the coastline of individual countries, harassing Asia's detailed fishermen.This is why the United States' "FreeDom of Navigation Program" has been welcomed in this area in recent years.After the new leader of the Asianan member country takes over, they may re -balance their relationships with the United States and China, but even if they tend to the United States, they still want to maintain a good relationship with China.
Singapore's influence on foreign communication is clear in chest
In the strategic impact of the United States and China, we only have the second round in 13 rounds of boxing.Moreover, it does not necessarily stop at 13 rounds. There are 15 rounds in the past century.This time may be countless rounds.The two sides are regarded as zero -sum games until they don't think so.The fact is that the United States cannot surround the development of China, and China cannot push the United States out of the Pacific Ocean.
What should Singapore do to maintain our sovereign interests, continue to act independence and continue to flourish?
Now, the global situation is beneficial to small and medium -sized countries, because the United States and allies, as well as China, are trying to attract more friends and partners.Asianan has once again received the attention of the United States, which has aroused the interest of the United States, as is the Pacific Island country.I dare to say that Africa will also attract their attention.But the same, the pressure on both sides will increase.
The Washington Post recently wrote a long investigation report on Lianhe Zaobao, accusing Singapore's Chinese media promoting China's propaganda and lies.Huayai emphasized that China conveyed information and spread influence in the Chinese Zongxiang Club and business groups in Singapore.Singapore has been known for such activities, and the government's influence on various countries has always been highly vigilant.We once revealed that foreign forces conducted "black operations" for Singaporeans and manipulated public opinion.I have always thought that because of the differentiation of language, in the Singapore media, the English Media Strait Times will draw more information from the source of English, and the source of the information of Lianhe Zaobao is more Chinese.
The U.S. government, senior members, and their staff will definitely read this article that appears in Huyou.They must have some questions that Singapore will face pressure.
In fact, some American strategic thinkers are very concerned about Southeast Asia that it seems that the influence and publicity of China expand and publicize, and believe that the United States should compete with China in this area with China.Therefore, we must prepare that the disputes between various discussions will be more intense than the present.
What should we do?
For Singapore, as a small country, in such an era of division and contradiction, the best response strategy is to do what we have done in the past.We must understand that Singapore does not have much choice, but we have to do better what we did well, while updating our practices and discussions.
First, as a small country, we must stay active and let others hear our voice, otherwise it will lose our value and significance to the world.
Singapore has to continue to speak on the international forum, making calmness and rationality, letting people know what kind of world order we are.We have to refine a good discussion. In the past, we said, "We don't choose to choose a border, but now we correctly emphasize that we act in a way to safeguard national interests and sovereignty.Sometimes, thisIt means that we have to say "no" to others.
Second, although we don't choose to choose a side, we actually choose in the process.We will accept American initiative and China.no problem.This does not mean that we will stop developing a solid relationship with any side.As long as the situation is permitted, we do it as much as possible.Everyone knows that there is a strategic relationship between Singapore and the United States.The United States is our largest investment country and national defense partner.We have expanded cooperation to sustainability and network security, and now there are space.China is our biggest trading partner, and China's "Belt and Road" investment will pass through Singapore.Many major Singapore companies and small and medium -sized enterprises have commercial exchanges with China.
Third, to be able to speak and maintain importance, we have to build a strong economy and successful society.If we are useless, no one will listen to us during the Cold War.No one will care about a country without hope.Therefore, it is important to create a strong economy and society.
Fourth, small countries need to cooperate with other organizations in the world, and Singapore performed well in this regard.In fact, we participated in the creation of some organizations.Singapore needs to strengthen Asia, our regional organization.A very fashionable approach is to criticize Yajian, saying that Yajia'an is not united, so it cannot be a climate or a major event.It is not easy for regional organizations to achieve consensus, and the greater the organization, the greater the difficulty.The European Union and NATO are not iron plates for how to deal with Russia.There is no consensus on NATO for whether Ukraine is added or when to join.There are different views on whether to use a bundle bomb.
The Erv Isa Eastern Southern Asia Research Institute's investigation in Southeast Asia in 2023 is very interesting. The Asian State believes that the economic influence of Asia in Southeast Asia is second only to China, ranking in front of the United States, Japan and Europe.The Asianan country also elected the primary defenders of Axian as the global trade agenda.In 2022, the first second defenders they were selected were the United States and China.Ayan believes in himself.If Yajia'an continues to strengthen its cohesion, there will be better opportunities to carry pressure on the external power.
However, how much contribution to Asianan's contributions to regions and global peace and security depends on whether the initiative proposed by some members of the Asian Simmer is tolerant.It welcomes the participation of the United States, China, and even Russia. For example, the Asia Gyeongan Regional Forum and the East Asian Summit are examples.This is even more important in the age of division.
Aya Anyin's outlook is also tolerant.The Komo Dodo Navy exercise held in Indonesia is a response to humanitarian crisis.The exercise in June 2023 includes the United States, China and Russia, although the relationship between these countries is cold.The Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization includes a few regional organizations in the United States and China.Asians believe that China should be included, not marginalized in regional order.China, which is excluded from regional organizations, will be an unpredictable China.
Ayan was the right convener at this time.Singapore must actively cooperate with other member states that intend to maintain regional peace, stability and prosperity.
The author is a Professor of Singapore's Ambassador and Professor Lee Kuan Yew Innovation City Center of Singapore University of Science and Technology and Design.
This article is a speech on the "Lee Guangyao Birthday Commemorative Forum -Re -creating Destiny" on August 14
Li Huiling translated
