The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on August 15 that it suspended the release of data on the investigation of unemployment rates by young people across the country. It was criticized by public opinion as a covering ears, causing various negative imaginations to combat the market's confidence in China's economic status and expectations.After the unblocking of the crown disease at the beginning of the year, China once encouraged the global market.However, a series of economic data released recently has made the international market very disturbed.The Chinese economy not only did not have expected revenge rebounds, but instead, the three locomotives of import and export, consumption, and investment all experienced slowing down, and even interaction, which may push the economy to the abnormal path of currency tightening.
China's youth unemployment rate was 21.3%in June, recorded high for the third consecutive month.The official suspension of July data has led to the negative interpretation of the market, and the data of the youth unemployment rate is very ugly.This is not unprecedented, because a series of economic data announced in July is difficult to make people optimistic.At the same time, some incidents in the economic and social field seem to reflect the fact that the economic downturn is reflected.Chinese real estate giant Country Garden failed to pay two US dollar bond tickets on August 7, which shocked all walks of life. On August 14, the company's stock price fell more than 16%in the Hong Kong stock market to HK $ 0.82 (about S $ 0.14), a record low.
China Rong Trust, a subsidiary of China -planting Enterprise Group, China's largest asset management company, was exposed to nearly 100 million yuan (about S $ 18.68 million) on August 14, reflecting the abduction of the real estate market on the financial market because China RongTrust have invested a lot of bad news in the real estate industry in the near future.The market is worried that if the financial trust company happens successively, it will inevitably affect the bank and cause a greater financial turmoil.Although the Chinese State Council recently announced its policies in succession, hoping to stimulate consumption and encourage foreign investment, it has always been unable to stabilize market confidence, and both the stock market and the offshore RMB exchange rate have fallen.In addition, China's debt issues also lit a police news. JP Morgan Datong estimated that the overall debt (including households, enterprises and governments) in China has reached 282%of the annual economic output.The average ratio of global developed economies is 256%, and the United States is 257%.
Based on the impression of recent data from international media, the three locomotives of China's economy -import and export, consumption and investment all turned off, which caused a lot of concerns.According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 8th, imports in July fell 12.4%year -on -year, and exports fell 14.5%year -on -year, weaker than market expectations, showing a continuous decline and expanding trend.The consumer price index of the residents declined for the first time in July two years, a decrease of 0.3%year -on -year. Compared with the same period last year, the factory producer's factory price index decreased for 10 months compared with the same period last year, a year -on -year decrease of 4.4%, causing shrinkage concerns.
In terms of domestic investment, RMB loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan in July, a new low in the past 14 years, and the increase in loans in June was 3.05 trillion yuan.The scale of social financing increased by 528.2 billion yuan, which was a cliff -like decline from the 4.22 trillion yuan in June.Investment data from overseas was as bad. Japan Economic News reported on August 14 that foreign companies' direct investment in China from April to June was $ 4.9 billion, a decrease of 87%compared with the same period last year, the lowest since 1998value.This may be partly derived from the West's continued decoupling with the Chinese industrial chain.U.S. President Biden issued an administrative order on August 9 to restrict the US investment in China, and further weaken the attractiveness of the Chinese market to international capital.
Bynden said at the political fundraising activity of Utah on August 10 that China is facing economic and population problems. He is worried that this second largest economy in the world will become a "timing bomb" that may threaten the world.EssenceThis statement does not have the intention to recognize the war, but it cannot exclude it reflects the judgment of the US intelligence community and think tanks on China's current economic challenges.From the perspective of the Chinese government's decision -making trend so far, the national policy of "economic construction as the center" in the past seems to gradually give concessions to "national security as the center".However, excessive emphasis on national security may hurt economic development, which will affect social stability and eventually affect national security.The youth unemployment rate continues to rise to this logic.
Since the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has been leading regional and even the world economy to develop simultaneously, and has also helped hundreds of millions of Chinese people out of poverty.Therefore, the international community, especially regional countries, hopes to see that China can quickly get rid of the current adversity and restore past vitality.The Chinese government must carefully review the blind spots of decision -making so far.Capital and social people are eager to be expected to be expected in order to revitalize investment and consumption confidence.I believe this is also the general expectation of regional countries to China.
