Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Lu Yi
The Russian ruble against the US dollar exchange rate fell below 100 important psychological prolons on August 14, the lowest level since March 28, 2022, and then rushed to 102.38 rubles against 1 US dollars.Since the beginning of this year, rubles have become the third place in emerging market currencies this year.Among them, rubles fell 32.41%from 72.5 at the end of 2022; the decline in the decline in the euro was relatively strong, which fell 35.56%compared with 78.93 at the end of 2022.Facing the violent oscillating ruble, 25 days after the previous interest rate hike, the Russian central bank resolutely chose to raise interest rates again.
On August 15th local time, the central Russian Central Bank held a non -routine meeting and decided to increase the key interest rate from 8.50%from the previous 8.50%basis to 12%.According to the schedule, the Russian central bank was scheduled to hold the next interest rate meeting on September 15.It is worth noting that the last time the Russian central bank's interest rate hike was less than a month.On July 21, the Russian Central Bank accidentally announced that it had raised 100 basis points by expected interest rate hikes, and adjusted the benchmark interest rate to 8.50%.At that time, it was the first interest rate hike since the outbreak of the Russian central bank in February last year.
Many public opinion says that the ruble has depreciated, and the myth of Russia's "more and more richer" is broken.In fact, "more and more richer" itself is not in compliance with economic laws.And with the anxiety of the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia will face increasing pressure.
How did the ruble maintain a year's firmness?
When the Russian and Ukraine War had just started more than a year ago, when the United States and the West continued to sanction Russia, Putin launched a ruble settlement order to require all non -friendly countries defined by Russia to import goods to Russia.The ruble is settled, and such an ruble settlement allows the currency value of the ruble to the US dollar instantly.
Then we see that Russia is fighting, but Russia's currency value has remained stable. Why is this?One important reason is that Russia has enough energy.To some extent in Europe, it is indeed abducted by Russia's energy, so it is necessary to use rubles or gold to import energy from Russia, which helped the Russian currency value.And because the situation of the war has just begun, the price and natural gas prices of international oil are soaring, so that Russia has made a lot of money by exporting energy, so some people said that Russia was "the more they would fight the more money."
Of course, there is no problem in the short term, because the international oil price was 80 US dollars a barrel, and it suddenly soared to a barrel of $ 130. Many countries had to buy it. Of course, Russia's fiscal revenue increased sharply.But all this has a premise that time cannot be dragged for too long, because after a long time, many countries have to adjust their strategies.For example, Europe, Europe expands the storage of natural gas on the one hand, and has gradually decoupled with Russia.Since the end of last year, European countries have almost no longer purchased oil and natural gas in Russia.And because European countries have storage of natural gas, coupled with the warm winter factors at the end of last year, the price of natural gas in Europe has sharply affected Russia's economy.
The war of war for a long time is not determined to appear in Russia's economic fatigue
By this year, the Russian economy is more difficult, why?
Russia has actually encountered several crises.The first is to spend too much money.According to Western media reports, Russia's military expenditure has set a historical high this year, probably more than twice that of the usual year.This is very easy to understand. After all, Russia is fighting, and the scale of war is continuously expanding. Russia is not facing a Ukraine but the entire NATO.Many people say that the Russian and Ukraine War has evolved into a small -scale world war.
Western countries led by the United States continue to send weapons to Ukraine.It is said that the shell is the case. Ukraine previously said that hundreds of thousands of shells were needed per month, but even if Europe and the United States sent all the shells, it was not enough.Ukraine demand.Therefore, the United States has no choice but to provide a bundle bomb to Ukraine.Think about how big the total economic volume of the United States and Europe are, how strong the production capacity is, and still unable to cope with the needs of the Russian and Ukraine War. So how much does Russia spend to fight for this battle?
Not only are supplies and economic inputs, but also personnel input.A few days ago, President Putin signed a decree to adjust Russia's recruitment period from 27 to 30 years. Russian youths from 18 to 30 years old may be among the recruitment. This is equivalent to expanding three points at onceOne of the recruitment soldiers.From the beginning to the present, everyone has realized that Russia is facing serious troops. In addition, after the Wagner rebellion, Russia has not dared to use it on the one hand.Forces, so the Russian army is clearly stretched.But on the other hand, the large number of living forces are transferred from the rear to the front line. The production is difficult to sustain, and the front line consumption is greater, so it is clear that this battle will be greatly consumed by Russia's financial resources.
This has not added the casualties of the Russian army on the front of more than 500 days.Until now, the Russian army has not announced its real casualties.But I believe that after more than 500 days, the number of people who are killed by the Russian army are definitely not a small number, and a large amount of pension and treatment costs are also an astronomical figure.So far, there have been no signs of negotiations in the Russian and Ukraine War.
On the other hand, Russia's problems are not only increasing, but also a more critical problem is that income is decreasing.More than a year ago, the ruble settlement made why it successfully reversed the decline. The important reason is that Russia has hard currency and energy in the hands of Russia, and Europe is needed. However, after more than a year of adjustment, the situation has undergone tremendous changes.For European countries, they have almost completely decoupled from Russia's energy. In terms of natural gas, they store a lot of storage, making the price of natural gas now fall quickly. Obviously, oil from the United States and oil from the Middle East can also fill the needs of European needs.EssenceTherefore, in recent months, global oil prices have stabilized at $ 70 to 80, and even the OPEC country feels that the future oil prices may be reduced, so they have begun to reduce production to increase oil prices.
That is to say, the effectiveness of Russian energy weapons is constantly decreasing, and this is a huge trouble for Russian finance.Now on the one hand, Europe does not buy Russia's energy, and on the other hand, international oil prices and natural gas prices have fallen rapidly when Russia and Ukuki started more than a year ago, which made the Russian central government's revenue stretched.
Thanks to the decline in imports and strong oil and gas exports, Russia's frequent account surplus reached a record high in 2022, which led foreign funds to continue to inflow.However, this year, the oil and gas income of Russia's economic pulse was only 4.19 trillion rubles (about $ 43.2 billion) for the first seven months, a decrease of 41.4 % compared with the same period last year.
The decrease in natural gas exports has also had a huge impact on Russian companies.The financial performance announced by Russia's Gazprom (Gazprom) shows that in 2022, the net profit of natural gas exports plummeted from 2 trillion rubles to 1.2 trillion rubles, a decrease of 800 billion rubles, equivalent to nearly $ 10 billion.
Capital escape and budget revenue decline, that is, oil and natural gas revenue and tax shrinkage, coupled with the Wagner incident that erupted at the end of June, is the reason why the rubles have been weak this year.Elvira Nabiullina, president of Russia, has pointed out many times that due to the increase in government expenditure, decline in energy income, and depositing funds in Russians to foreign accounts, the value of the currency is almost reduced compared to last year's capital control peak.Half.
The data released by the Russian central bank last week showed that in the first seven months of this year,Russia's frequent project surplus has decreased significantly to US $ 25.2 billion, compared with US $ 165.4 billion in 2022.The surplus in July was 1.8 billion US dollars, while the same period last year was $ 17.8 billion.The Russian central bank also predicts that the current account surplus in 2023 is $ 26 billion, which is significantly lower than last year's $ 227 billion.
Revenue has decreased significantly, and expenditure is still increasing, so no wonder the ratio of rubles to the US dollar has continued to decline. This also makes many people ask a question, how long can Russia stand?In other words, Russia and Europe, who will not be able to support the first, obviously, with the continuous development of the war, Russia's loss is certain.
The market outlook of the ruble is not optimistic
It is not optimistic about the market outlook of the ruble.Reuters survey shows that Russian currency is unlikely to have too much appreciation space in the next 12 months."This is not the limit yet."
The Russian government has begun intervention.The Russian Bank has announced that it will stop purchasing foreign exchange from the domestic market from August 10th to the end of the year.In 2024 or after, the bank may extend the decision.Generally, whenever foreign exchange trading occurs, the international foreign exchange exchange rate is in a very unstable state, and the increase and decline are beyond the controlled category. Therefore, the government will temporarily suspend foreign exchange trading to avoid the financial crisis due to abnormal foreign exchange rate.
At the same time, the Russian Bank of Russia will continue to sell foreign exchange related to the national welfare fund funds at a scale of 2.3 billion rubles per day.
In addition, Putin signed a presidential order on August 8 to allow Russia to export agricultural products to pay for rubles.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Abramqinko recently said that the law will "simplify the way to enter the food market to enter the food market" and protect Russian exporters and Russian "friendly" countries from sanction pressure.It is reported that the decree signed by Putin stipulates the special procedure of Russian agricultural product supply and foreign trade contract settlement, and establishes a mechanism for Russian agricultural products to settle in Russian agricultural products through special accounts.The decree will take effect on November 1, and the Russian government will also approve the list of agricultural products within 30 days.
Fortune Magazine pointed out that Russia and Ukraine provided about 14%of wheat, 19%barley and 4%of corn around the world.After the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's grain production capacity has fallen significantly and the passage of the sea is not smooth.What is worse is that some countries represented by the country produced by the main country of grain and some countries represented by Indonesia have recently issued different degrees of grain export ban.When global food supply is obviously tight, buying Russia's agricultural products only receive rubles, which will be very stimulating for rubles.
But there is still a problem that cannot be ignored. Since the spring, Russia's inflation has been rising. This is one of the motivations that contribute to the Russian central bank's up to 12%interest rates.To the extent to which the effect of the measures brought by the measures can alleviate the inflation effect, it still needs further observation.
