Zhou Zhongfei: Kissinger visits Beijing Interpretation -Sino -US relations are difficu

Source: China Times

Author: Zhou Zhongfei

Recently, Dr. Kissinger, a well -known American diplomat, the Nixon government, and the Ford government, visited China with a centenarians.Kissinger's first high -level interaction with China was Li Shangfu, the Minister of Defense, which was included in the US sanctions list.As a non -military person, Kissinger met with the Chinese PLA generals. It can be seen that this trip was extraordinary and conveyed signals that China and the United States would have resumed military interaction.Another "press volume" was the penalty of Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Kissinger at Building 5, Diaoyutai (52 years ago, where Prime Minister Zhou Enlai met with Kissinger).Xi Jinping expressed his gratitude to Kissinger's 100 -year -old life, he expressed his gratitude for hundreds of visit to China for half a century and his contribution to promoting Sino -US relations.

Some comments believe that Kissinger is a character who "speaks" in the decision -making circle of the two countries. The purpose of this trip is obviously "passing".There are also judgments that Sino -US relations may enter the new era and show new window.The intermediate argument believes that Kissinger's trip is not to promote the "re -establishment of diplomatic relations" in China and the United States, but to promote Sino -US "rebuilding mutual trust."In terms of the "thawing" method of Sino -US relations, one view is that it is possible to maintain the situation of "continuing to talk"; another point of view believes that the cold method of "contact, interruption, and contact" in China and the United States may adjust.More extreme remarks, such as the pursuit of "steady and anti -Russia" in the United States, and "compromise between China" are "delay tactics".There are also "media gossip", claiming that Kissinger's visit to China "secrets" is a "double spring drama" that cooperates with the needs of the US political system, which inevitably put on a kind of "tailor -made" color.

The United States treats China as an opponent

The basic judgment of this article is that Sino -US relations have been difficult to return to the past.It is an indisputable fact that the United States listed China as the main competitor, that is, the enemy's treatment.In addition, China's pursuit of peace and stability is unswerving.Of course, this does not prevent us from visiting Kissinger in Beijing and observing in the background of the world's centuries -old change.

In theory, Kissinger is the master of international relations.In addition, he is the designer, trader, and participants of the US -Soviets, the United States, China, and Russia triangle, the world and regional order, especially the Asia -Pacific order.Today, the international situation has changed, but the global and regional strategy of the United States is still affected by the theory of the average momentum. For example, the claim of "Sino -US economy and trade cannot be decoupled" is the refraction of the theory in the economic field.In the existence of Kissinger's international influence, China has its own opinion.

At the practical level, the Bayeng government has listed China as the most important strategic competitors. Biden's strategy towards China has moved further in the extreme aspects of extremeization.During the office of Biden, it is the main way to push the conflict between China and the United States to the critical point.It's just that the limit of the negative bottom line has not yet reached.Kissinger himself has also mentioned many times that the future competition between China and the United States will be concentrated in the high -tech field, and even the complexity and danger of the current Sino -US relations will be near the war.

Following this idea, this article believes that the contradictions between China and the United States seem to be intricate, but in fact, the real core of Sino -US relations is whether both sides can control military conflicts.Other "explosive points" between China and the United States, such as ideological, democratic values, Middle East issues, Russia -Ukraine conflicts, the US, Japan, Australia and India's four -sided security mechanism, Sino -US trade, high -tech competition, Taiwan issues, etc.Whether the military conflict occurred in China and the United States.Therefore, preventing military conflicts in China and the United States should be the focus of Kissinger's visit to China.

Based on this, the conclusion believes that the main line of Kissinger coming to Beijing is dialectical, and the effect of visiting China is also two -way.At present, it shows that on the one hand, it shows the world that "it is difficult to decide between China and the United States", and on the other hand, it shows that "it is difficult for Sino -US relations to return to the past."As for the United States, it remains to be observed.

Following this conclusion, a few observation points are mentioned:

One of them, the appearance method is particular.

Kissinger is the target figure. Is it an unofficial or semi -official identity to visit China?This is a highlight.

On November 25, 2020, the Trump administration withdrew the US National Defense Policy Commission, including Kissinger.At that time, the United States had a low -key handling of this incident, so that it did not attract public opinion.But the trajectory later showed that this move had a symbolic significance of completely reversing between China and the United States.The decline of the US policy on China has been accelerated since then, and this deterioration continues until the Bayeng government.After the balloon incident, Sino -US relations have entered a more difficult deadlock.

In June this year, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution established by the Sino -US Strategic Competition Special Committee and established a Sino -US relations group.In addition to Kissing, members include representative, Economist Lady, and other business people at the Economist at the Washington Institute of Washington.Lady's cooperation in China and the United States, the prospects of China's economy, have been optimistic for a long time, and have been interacting with the Chinese academic community for a long time.

However, Kissinger's visit to China did not use this recent decision to be established as a "appropriate platform" specifically for the current Sino -US relations.There are no signs that Kissinger's trip to China has been supported by the administrative department, but common sense tells people that such a heavy action is undoubtedly closely related to the decision -making layer of the United States in China.

The title of Kissinger from the official report from China is "former Secretary of State."This detailed term shows Kissinger's appearance, which is both "Yuyin around the beam" and just right.

Second, unique fixation.Kissinger is a master of international strategy. He has his own insights on global order, regional security, large country relations, and US hegemony.The positioning of China on it focuses on Kissinger's witnessing history and participating in historical facts.

The current situation in the United States is that the Bayeng government is in the vortex of the political pressure and interest groups of the US election.The Republican and Congress Senate concentrated firepower, accusing the government of failing to pay attention to China's threat to the composition of US national security.Anti -China forces, including the military, require the government to further take tough measures to curb China's enhanced power.However, the scientific and technological community "moves against the current", and the phenomenon of "holding the flag" has appeared. Many large companies oppose the "Brain Discovering China" of the Ministry of Commerce's Industry and Security Bureau, and oppose "a strangling of no results on China's high -tech."" ".These contradictions have promoted the needs of the Biden government to seek new balance tools in China.

Kissinger's visit is itself a signal to Sino -US relations. What is specific to talk about is secondary.For example, Kissinger himself first used the title of "old Chinese friend". When Xi Jinping met with Kissinger, the intensive sound also fell on the 100 -year -old, the birthday banquet, and thanked him for his contribution to the people of China and the United States.Visit Kissinger in China and set the witnesses of the history of China and the United States, the participants of historical facts, that is, the relationship between history and individuals.

Kissinger and China meet with "large scale"

Third, in addition to "emphasis on lectures", this time Kissinger and China met with "large scale".The world pays great attention to this.

For a period of time, the United States has issued from a multi -angle, comprehensive, and high level. The voice of "fighting and killing China" is essentially at different levels.Cooperate, make a deterrent, and let go of the wishes.

Before Kissinger came to Beijing this time, the US State Department, Parliament, the military, and many well -known think tanks and related institutions in the United States still released such signals.The departments such as the US Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce that "do not decompose to China", the negotiation strategy of China can also be tough, and how tough can be touched.Even if they are unhappy, they do not change the pattern of confrontation with China.

Therefore, from the perspective of China, Kissinger visits show that the two -way meaning mentioned ear"China believes that the United States believes that the United States can do everything possible to conspiracy to curb China's development". It is not the so -called "China emphasizes its own interest in the so -called world hegemony and overtake the United States."The other party's judgment, Sino -US relations can be explained by the suspicion ".

Others, such as the Bayeng government, intend to "prevent the China -Russia Alliance", the United States promotes the "slow soldiers" to China, "China has achieved anti -overtaking against the United States", and the United States will accept a series of "jumpy first" such as "the reality that the world has changed"It is difficult to explain the relationship between the Biden government and the recently established Special Committee of the United States House of Representatives and the relationship between the US House of Representatives and the relationship between Kissinger's visit to China.

Pascal Boniface, director of the French Institute of Strategic Relations, recently recently interviewed Hong Kong Phoenix Satellite TV as the end.Boninfasia is implicitly said that for the world, Sino-US relations are the biggest challenges in the next 10-15 years.In terms of economic aspects, China and the United States cannot really be decoupled. Therefore, it is necessary to find a path of cooperation.

Where are the Sino -US relations?Also wait and see.

The author is a researcher at Shanghai Taiwan Research Association