Mainland China was separated from epidemic prevention control at the end of last year. The market originally expected that the economy would return strongly to provide a strong momentum for the weak global economy. However, there were many dim situations in the second quarter of this year.Since the reform and opening up, the rare and bleak situation, weak consumption, decline in imports and exports, small investment, crisis in the real estate market, and high unemployment rates. Local government debt stations have continued to rise.Prime Minister Li Qiang has recently met with the leadership of technology companies to cheer up, which also shows that the rectification of platform companies in the past three years has come to an end, hoping to restore the confidence and vitality of private enterprises.
The official government of the mainland government wants the economy to get out of trouble, reflecting that the mainland's economy has indeed been in trouble, and all parties cannot help but have doubts. After the mainland has experienced rapid growth in 30 or 40 years, whether it is entering Japan to enter the dust.abyss?In addition, the geopolitical relations of the United States and China are tight. The United States curbing the stuck neck movement provided by China's advanced semiconductor and other technologies is becoming more and more powerful, which will definitely worsen the weak Chinese economy.
Many international economic experts evaluate that China ’s surpassing the United States as the world's largest economy has been frustrated.Tom Orlik, chief economist of Bloomberg, pointed out that a few years ago, it was difficult to imagine that China's economic scale could not surpass the United States quickly and become the world's number one.It may not happen. "
The Chinese economy is in the process of growing from industrialization to innovative growth. Based on innovation -based growth, it will not be so fast, so slowing down is inevitable.However, the recent slowdown in China's economic growth is the crisis of faith. Even if the government has taken stimulating measures to solve the positive rights of bad debts, support the promise of private entrepreneurs to repeatedly reiterate, and cannot eliminate deep pessimism.
A significant indicator is that since the end of April, the RMB exchange rate index (CFETS) has fallen almost weekly. This is since the establishment of data since China Foreign Exchange Trading Center in 2015. It has never been seen before. It shows that this is not just the market.The short -term fluctuation problem is the fragile problem of confidence in the overall trend of the future in the future.Due to serious confidence, the economic policy launched by the government, whether it is financial policies such as tax cuts and fees, and other monetary policies such as tax reduction and interest rate cuts, and further loosening the combination of housing market regulation and control, it has failed to produce practical results.
There are short -term occasional factors, such as the three consecutive years of epidemic prevention and control, which seriously impacts production, investment and consumption, and also caused great damage to the supply chain. Long -term factors have deteriorated in the United States and China.The Chinese economy has adopted many curbing measures, causing a negative impact of decoustal disconnection.However, almost every level is dim, showing that the current dilemma has its deep cause, and non -general stimulus measures can be relieved.
The current problem of serious economic development is mainly due to the loss of enthusiasm in private enterprises.In the past thirty or forty years, private enterprises have flourished, and have become strong and powerful carriers in combined with demand and supply mechanism.However, because the reform of China's property rights has not yet been completed, the positioning of private enterprises is still controversial, the policy is tight, and the policy has been pine, which has troubled the development of private enterprises, and has made private enterprises lack confidence in the future.It is even more severe to damage the confidence of private enterprises.
Three years ago, platform companies represented by Ant, Tencent, Didi and New Oriental suffered from obstruction and strict control.Li Qiang and Executive Deputy Prime Minister Ding Xuexiang recently attended a platform for the platform enterprise to listen to the opinions of more effective promotion of the platform's economic norms, healthy and sustainable development, and issued a political signal, indicating that the official strict supervision of the platform enterprises came to an end.
During the economic development of the platform, due to the lack of regulatory experience and the incomplete regulations, there is indeed a problem of barbaric growth, which also brings monopoly and personal security issues.It is necessary to rectify and strengthen supervision and promote the orderly development.However, the rectification of too long and too long has caused harm to the platform economy. The investment confidence and innovation willingness of private enterprises have been destroyed, and the official doubts cannot be raid in the short term.
Anti -spy method makes foreign executives worry
Not only does the development of domestic private enterprises be under policy pressure, but foreign -funded enterprises have recently been like birds of shocking, such as Western management consulting companies, auditing companies and other institutions frequently encountered assault search, investigation and detention operations.At the same time, the application of anti -spy law has also made executives of foreign companies more tense. Worried that conventional business activities such as market research in China may be regarded as spy behavior.Due to the continued deterioration of the operating environment and such political doubts, foreign investment has caused foreign investment in a deep confidence in China, and the willingness to invest in re -investing is low, and the scale of capital exchanging is not yet seen.
According to the analysis of the research company Rhodium Group, in the first quarter of this year, China's foreign direct investment fell to $ 20 billion, and in the first quarter of last year, it was $ 100 billion.Goldman Sachs Economist predicts that China's capital outflow will offset investment inflows this year, and the flow inflows in the past 40 years have been more than outflows.
Foreign -funded enterprises have provided a major help for China's economic growth. The professional knowledge brought about promoting innovation and improving productivity performance. Now it is the top of the black cloud mask. The operating environment is not as good as before, and they have retreated.The Sino -US trade war and science and technology wars have continued to burn. Many Chinese and foreign enterprises have switched to Asia's Dan'an and India investments in order to diversify risks, which has greatly weakened domestic and foreign investment in China.
Strictly controlling real estate is a aspect of declining private enterprises.In the past one or two decades, the real estate industry contributed a quarter of the output to the Chinese economy. Under the policy of "houses used for living rather than speculation", the real estate industry quickly went downhill.About 70%of China's family wealth is actually linked to real estate. The decline in housing prices has made the current value of buyers be lower than the value they agree with.This is how it comes out.According to people in the real estate industry in China, if the trend of a sharp decline in sales in the housing market is unchanged, the trend of real estate companies will gradually spread from private enterprises to state -owned enterprises and central enterprises developers, and there will be a strange situation in which the real estate industry retires.
Both real estate operators and consumers are weak in confidence, which causes investment and purchases to wither, which is the general source of China's current weak economy.Consumers and producers, domestic and foreign capital, manufacturing and service industries have insufficient confidence in market trends and future prospects, and they are lacking confidence in the stability of policies. Therefore, they are afraid of long -line and large -scale investment.A economy that has fallen to the bottom of the valley is the biggest crisis is to fall into a tightening situation. China's recent producers and consumer prices index are on the edge of the indicator of the deflection.The adjustment of the route and the policy of the route and the policy, the Chinese economy may be lost on the way.
The author is a senior media person in the former director of the Central News Agency
