Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

After the Ukraine attacked the Crimea Bridge again on July 17, Russia announced that it has suspended the Black Sea Food Agreement, which has maintained Ukraine Grain from the Black Sea since July last year, indicating that once Russia requests to get satisfaction, it will resume the execution agreement immediately.After the news came out, the international wheat price recorded a trace increase.

As a European granary, Ukraine, its black sea grain export is not only its economic lifeline, but also the food source of many poor countries in the world.The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) has more than 80%of wheat procurement from the Ukrainian Black Sea exports to support Ethiopia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia and other countries.

Although the interruption of the Black Sea Food and the Crimean Bridge occurred on the same day, the Kremlin spokesman Peskov showed that the two had nothing to do.Since Russia and U -U -U -China have reached the Black Sea Food Agreement with the Black Sea in July last year, Russia has been dissatisfied with Western sanctions that hinder Russia's exports of agricultural products and have repeatedly suspended the agreement.Western sanctions do not involve food exports, but its financial sanctions actually affect their related transactions.

In April this year, Russia made too many requirements for this, including allowing Russian Agricultural Bank of China to re -connect Swift systems, remove restrictions on agricultural machinery components and shipping insurance, remove sanctions and restoration of chemical fertilizer companies, restore chemical fertilizers companiesRussia connects to the ammonia pipeline of Odessa in the Ukrainian Black Sea Port City.

Before Russia made a suspension agreement decision, the United Nations Secretary -General Guterres had reported to the official Moscow and proposed to allow Russian Agricultural Bank of China to trade with the EU via Morgan Stanley through the SWIFT system and live with the United Kingdom with the United Kingdom.The official officials of the United States and the European Union have obtained some exemptions on Russia.

However, Russia did not formally respond to Gutres' proposal.Regarding Russia's decision, Gutres expressed regret and questioned the explanation of Russia on its decision. Citing the Russian industry said that "the Russian grain trade has reached its high level and its fertilizer market is stable.Complete recovery. "

Since the implementation of the Black Sea Food Agreement in July last year, Ukraine has exported a total of 32.9 million tons of grain.In addition, Ukraine does not have other sufficient alternative grain exports.For example, after the export route of the Danube exported by the Danube exported after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, it has only developed to the level of 2 million tons of grain exports per month in the past year.

In fact, this is not the first time that Russia has suspended the Grain Agreement of the Black Sea. After the Crimean Bridge was attacked in October last year, the Russian side also called the agreement, but at that time, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations did not care about Russia's opposition to continue shipping shipping.In the end, Russia also returned to the agreement quickly.

However, the Russian suspension agreement is obviously prepared this time.In recent months, the Russian side has been hindered to the execution of the agreement, which has led to the average number of inspected vessels exported by the Heihai export daily from an average of 10 ships to two daily to two. At the end of June before the agreement expires, the Russian side alsoThe ship's application for food was stopped, and the last ship that was allowed to transport food had to be traced back to June 27.Therefore, since July, there have been only 11 shipwreck agrees to check exports. In comparison, there are 173 ships in January this year.

For the Russian decision, Turkish President Erdogan, which prompted the agreement last year, showed that he believed that his "friend" Putin "wanted to continue this humane bridge", indicating that the two are expected to meet in August.Discuss the matter.In addition, there are news from Ukraine that negotiations on continuing food agreements have been held in Istanbul on the afternoon of July 17.

At this moment, the food transportation of Ukraine in Black Sea is suspended, and its direct impact will take about a few months before it will be felt around the world.Ukraine obviously wants the United Nations, Turkey and Ukraine to ignore Russia's exit and continue shipping.A spokesman for President Zellezki stated that "even if there is no Russian Federation, we must do our best to use this Black Sea Corridor, we are not afraid." As early as February this year, Ukraine has announced the establishment of 5A $ 100 million insurance fund to compensate for the possible loss of the black sea grain ship transportation.

Of course, this approach is to re -activate Russia's short -term suspension of agreement last year, but it was forced to return under the "operating as usual" in the Tripidica, Ukraine, and the United Nations.This calculation is not unreasonable.How can Russia respond if the three parties except Russia continue to be transported by ships and continue to check the ships in Islamabad?Is it to dispatch warships, detention, and even attacking grain vessels?This is not feasible when both Russia and the West are fighting for the support of the "Global Southern" countries.

At the same time, as nearly a quarter of the Grain Export of Black Sea in Ukraine is based on China, China also shows that the attitude of hopes to find a comprehensive solution can be found, which also puts some pressure on Russia.

If all parties cannot resolve the dispute on the negotiating table, Putin's gambling is that Erdogan, who is looking for in Russia in the Syrian issue, domestic energy supply and other affairs.EssenceRecently, Erdogan, who has recently joined NATO and even Ukraine Asia Camps in Ukraine, is close to the West, and it seems that he has no intention of adding Putin for the time being.

Even if Erdogan raised the banner of "humanitarianism", it was decided to assist Ukraine to ignore Russia's opposition to continue to transport food. Ukraine's black sea grain exports need to be willing to bear certain risks to achieve.The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs shows that the northwest of the Black Sea has become a "temporary dangerous area."Whether the Ukrainian government's money insurance can appease the risk of the shipping company is doubtful.

If Ukraine's grain cannot be exported for a long time, Western countries will inevitably concessions at the level of sanctions on Russia.

Therefore, this time Russia's suspension of the Black Sea Food Agreement has become a "timid ghost game" like similar events last year.At that time, Russia's "grass and herbal retreat" was incident, but this time the Russian side was obviously prepared and "war".