Yu Shiyu: The 50th anniversary of the first oil crisis talks about the vicissitudes of

The years are like shuttle, the Fourth Middle East War in 1973 (also known as the Atonement Day War) has been half a century away.The more important historic incident was the Organization of the Arab member of the oil export country headed by Saudi Arabia that year to carry out oil embargo to the European and American countries that support Israel, which directly led to the first world oil crisis and economic recession in the Western world.According to the Dictionary of Energy, the second edition of the second edition of the 2015 2015, the GDP of the US GDP (GDP), the second edition of Elsevier Science Publishing House in the Netherlands.It dropped 7%.

What is more worthy of reviewing is the Saudi Arabia and other Arab governments that launch the oil embargo -borrowing the wonderful words of the former US President Trump, which is "no US military support for less than two weeks" -actuallyIt will be a big loss of Washington, causing the West to fall into such a serious energy crisis.The key here is the extensive public opinion of the Arab world. It has caused tremendous political pressure on these pro -American authoritarian government, causing the then Saudi King Fasar to make this historic decision.

Whether King Fasal was assassinated by a nephew who returned from the United States more than a year later, whether it was related to this, there was a different talk, regardless of it.However, the Nixon administration has prepared to start military operations to occupy oil fields such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and other places, but they are well known.

For 50 years, the situation in the Middle East has experienced vicissitudes.In the Middle East column in the first issue of Economist Weekly on July 8th, it was reported that Israel has launched the biggest raid on the west bank of the (Jordan River) in the past year.Saudi Arabia has promoted its semi -covered alliances with Israel in recent years to be promoted to open and formal diplomatic relations. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, which has power, has been actively invent with the White House.

When Palestine's "Maintaining Meeting" President Abbas, when the tragedy of Jenning refugee camping called for "international community sanctions Israel", Uncle Sam arranged for Saudi Arabia and Israel's "big wedding" (the metaphor of the economist's metaphor for economists.), It is difficult to imagine that during the war of atonement, the Saudi king would ban oil on the United States, let alone Abu Dhabi, who participated in the oil embargo, was the capital of the UAE that had been formally established with Israel three years ago.

Half a century later, most of the autocracy of the Arab world is still the same, but the "Arab Street" with legendary reputation, or its political influence on the governments of various countries, has obviously changed significantly.As an outsider, it is difficult for us to measure whether this is because the Arab grass -roots public opinion is tired of clashed by Pakistan, or because of the social control capabilities of governments in various countries, it has greatly improved.At least from a macro perspective, the two major historical trends that once shaped the common emotions of the "Arab Street" have been degraded, which is an obvious fact.

First of all, the pan -Arabianist movement promoted by modern secular Arabian nationalism reached its peak during the term of President Nasser, Egypt, and swept the entire Arab world.The war of atonement jointly launched by Egypt and Syria can be said to be the end of Pan -Arabicism, which is still enough to force Saudi countries such as Saudi Arabia and other countries to carry out petroleum embargo on the West to cater to Arabic public opinion.In the conflict of the Arabia, and behind the stagnation of economic development, and the tribalism that the Arabic culture is difficult to eradicate, the Pan -Arabism finally withdrew from the historical stage.Instead, the "political Islamic" movement represented by the Muslim Brotherhood and other organizations has reached its peak in the "Arab Spring" more than ten years ago.However, the sectarian conflict and extremist violence that advocates religious beliefs and rapidly brings to the "political Islamic" trend than secular Arabicism than secular Arabicism, and loses social reputation and influence faster.

Outside the Arab world, the political and economic achievements of the Turkish Erdogan regime have faded rapidly, as well as the Iranian regime with the highest anti -Israeli tuning, involved in the bloody Arabic sect war, and their own violence to Arabic.The "Arab Street" has the disillusionment of "political Islam" and the decline in sensitivity to conflict with Ah.

The "Four Warfield" Israel, which is only a projectile land, has become a military and economic power in the Middle East 50 years later, forcing Islam to open up all the owners of Saudi Arabia other two other holy places outside Jerusalem.Although there are full support from the United States, it is impossible to deny that Israel has its own political, economic and technological achievements, and highlights the outstanding ability of the Jewish Jewish knowledge class that leads the Jewish resurgence and Israel for centuries.

However, the Taro Sutra said: "Blessing, the disaster." The cause of the recent domestic political crisis in Israel has foreshadows the hidden dangers in the future. This is the early June comment of the New York Times:It has doubled in 25 years, and will account for half of Israel's new population by 2050.They refused to receive modern scientific education. Men still did not work for labor after adulthood, but they insisted on expanding the Jewish colonial population to the Palestinian region.

The author is engaged in scientific research in North America