Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Liu Yanting

Recently, Turkey's series of actions have been interpreted as "betrayal" to Russia.

First of all, the five commanders of the "Asian Camp" were released on July 8.The calendar was a high -level prisoner of war released by the Russian side when the Turkish sighted Russia in 2022, which even included the "Asian Camp" and the deputy regiment.At that time, Russia requested that in view of the special identity of the "Asian Camp", these five commanders must stay in Turkey until the Russian and Ukraine War can return to Ukraine, and Turkey guarantees it.Unexpectedly, less than a year, the soil was convenient to let people go, and Russia was obviously caught off guard. The Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that Russia did not know about it, "no one notified us."

The Black Sea Food Agreement, which will expire on July 17th, will face failure as Russia expressed unwilling to renew the contract.However, according to the Ukraine side, Turkey has promised that even if Russia is unwilling to renew its contract, the Turkish Kingdom will send the navy to escort Ukraine's food vessels safely and avoid attacks from the Russian army.In this regard, Turkey did not come forward to clarify, and obviously it was also trying to protect the agreement, even if Russia opposed it.

Come again is the "Open Sweden to join NATO" with the most discussions.On the eve of the NATO Summit on July 10, Erdogan, who originally linked to the "Sweden" and "Turkish EU", suddenly loosened and agreed to submit the Swedish to the Turkish Parliament for approval.Although the approval process and date are still variables, Erdogan has made a big progress in this way. As a result, the outside world has generally interpreted: Sweden is only a matter of time.

In other words, the above measures reflect that Turkey really intentionally balances the relationship between the United States and sacrifice some Russian interests. Therefore, many public opinion criticized Turkey to "betrayed Russia" for this.But critics may wish to ask themselves, how many countries can live in the international relations of weak meat and strong food?If Russia also lives for the interests of the United States and even Ukraine, how can there be today's Russia and Ukraine War?

In the final analysis, some of the critics criticized by many Asian -Africa countries such as Turkey and other Asian -Africa and Rathematics countries that have not participated in the reality of sanctions against Russia after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War.The stage drama of international relations found that Turkey did not match the idea, and thus gave birth to "betrayal" criticism.However, in fact, the relationship between Turkey and Russia has been carefully investigated. The interaction between the two countries is not only restrained by geopolitical politics, but also led by the international situation. Even if Turkey has gradually "looked east" in recent years, it has eased the interaction with Russia.With both the power structure, we must go to the state of the brothers from each.

Three -stage model of Russian and Turkey Relations

Observing the interaction between the two countries that fell in the 18th century. After the sixth Russian Turkey War from 1768 to 1874, the Russian Empire established the scope of power on the north coast of the Black Sea and confronted with Ottoman Turkey to a new peak.From the perspective of Russia, its primary goal is to control the Bosptruz Strait and the Dadanier Strait so that the navy can enter the Central Sea without blocking. To achieve this, Russia must cooperate with other European powers in a timely manner;Starting from the position of Ottoman Turkey, one is to prevent Russia from occupying the Strait and the second to resist the division of the European powers.In short, Russian and Turkish relations are not only trapped by the geographical game of the two countries, but also closely related to international politics.

Starting from this context, we can find that Russian and Turkish relations after the 18th century. Under the change of different international situations, a three -stage interactive mode has appeared: First, under the balance of the continental powers, the two countries that are hostile to each other quickly change allies,From time to time, it eases to promote their strategic goals. Second, under the threat of multi -party recognized by Russia, Turkey fell to European powers to seek survival; third, Russia's strategic focus transfer, Turkey and Russia have reduced confrontation.Meto the relationship and even cooperate.

The first model is from 1798 to 1841.During this period, in order to avoid its own disintegration, Ottoman Turkey has experienced three situations: alliances against Russia, maintaining neutrality, and fighting Russia. Although Russia wants to control the Strait, it has no consistent policy for achieving this goal.For example, after Napoleon invaded Egypt in 1798, the Ottoman Empire chose to sign an agreement with Russia in order to resist France, agreed that each other conducted military cooperation when they were attacked by the third country (that is, France).However, after the situation was slow in 1806, Ottoman negotiated with France. Russia also tried to occupy the Strait in 1807, and after the operation was defeated, they transferred to France to negotiate.But Napoleon evaluated that once Russia successfully occupied the strait and attacked Ottoman, Austria will become a direct beneficiary of the Balkans' order collapse, so France and Russia failed to form a substantial alliance.

There are many similar cases, including 1809. In order to contain Russia to compete for Russia to compete for Moldavia and Vara, choose to form an alliance with Britain. In 1812, Russia attacked Russia.In exchange for the latter to withdraw from Napoleon; in 1825, Osman's appointment appointed Egyptian Governor Muhammad Ali led the army to land in Greece and treated against the rebellion, causing the British -French and Russian fleet to jointly interfere; in 1833, Muhammad Ali entered Syria with the support of France and was back.Osman's Osman turned to Russia for help. In 1840, Britain and Russia jointly siege France. Muhammad Ali finally withdrew Egypt.

The second model is the most obvious is from 1841 to 1878.During this period, due to the sharp growth of Russia's strength, Britain became the leader of the European Anti -Russian Alliance; under the British asylum, the Ottoman Empire as an anti -Russian allies and gained strategic opportunities for survival.For example, the Crimean war broke out in 1853. Although the Ottoman Navy defeated the Russian army on the south bank of the Black Sea, Britain and France then sent a fleet to enter the Black Sea in 1854. In the concession of Russia in 1856, Ottoman won 21 years of peace.The period was not rebelled until Barnan's support in Russia in 1877, and Ottoman Turkey declared war on Russia.

Although the Turkish army also lost to the Russian army this time, Russia once again faced the dilemma of diplomatic isolation. The United Kingdom still opposes any solutions that allow Russia to take over the strait.Ready to make martial arts determination.In the end, Germany came forward to mediate, and all parties signed the Berlin Treaty to prevent Russia from being unique in Russia by introducing the British and Austro -Hungarian Empire into the Balkans.

The third model continued from the 1878 Berlin Conference to the outbreak of World War I.During this period, Ottoman Turkey was facing the pressure of cracking from Britain and France, and Russia abandoned the long -term goal of occupying the Strait because of the trauma of war, and gradually turned to the Far East.EssenceOf course, the two sides still have frictions. For example, Russia continued to support the national independence movement in the Caucasus region, which indirectly led Ottoman Turkey to launch a massacre against the Armenian in 1915.But overall, the Turkish -Russian relations during this period did not meet the previous soldiers, and it was more beneficial to Russia's strategic shift.

The essence of "betrayal" is to balance

In summary, because Turkey and Russia's spheres of influence are intertwined, and the complicated power structure with the Western powers has formed a complex power structure. Even if the relationship between the two parties eases, it often has friction in cooperation.

After the outbreak of World War I in 1914, Ottoman Turkey failed to avoid war, and connected with Tsar Russia's short soldiers again. He tasted a tragic defeat.Because the revolution withdrew from the battlefield in 1917; although Osman Turkey was temporarily breathing, he was forced to disintegrate after the war.Observing the interaction between the Turkish Republic and the Soviet Union and even the Russian Federation, it is not difficult to see the sense of vision that repeats history.

First of all is 1In 19952, Türkiye joined NATO and disintegrated in the Soviet Union by 1991.The interaction of Russian Turkey in this period is very similar to from 1841 to 1878. It is the "second model" of Britain's "second model" of the British leadership of the anti -Russian alliance and alleviating Osman's pressure.Instead, the United States on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, Turkey, as the anti -Soviet front, must rely on the shelter of Western groups headed by the United States to resist the military pressure of the Soviet Union, including asking for the eastern territory of Anatolia and the requirements of the Strait.

Of course, during this period, the two countries did not have no chance to ease.After the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the US -Soviet relations eased. Turkey broke out with the United States in 1964 due to the Cyprus issue. Turkey began to try to develop relationships with the Soviet Union.Credit.But soon after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the United States began to attach importance to Turkey's strategic role. Turkey was also worried that the next one was itself after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan.

Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the Russian and Turkish relations can be seen from the "third model" from 1878 to 1914, that is, the two sides have no intention of a high -intensity confrontation in the core forces.Expect.The most prominent is the continuous growth of Russia's trade volume, especially Russia's natural gas exports to Turkey.In 2012, Russia became the second largest trading partner of Turkey, with a total annual trade of 33.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 8.6%of the total trade (second only to Germany).

During this period, the differences between Turkey and the West have further deepened, including joining the European Union to continue to be blocked and the United States' support for Kurdish armed forces in Syria.Northern Syria.Although the Turkish Army had a fire with the Russian army in the north, the two sides eventually formed a balance of symbiosis. Turkey also participated in the Russian -led Astana peace process and coordinated the order of Syrian Beibei.In September 2017, Turkey ignored the opposition of the United States and purchased the S? 400 missile defense system to Russia, which caused themselves to be excluded from the joint production and procurement list of the fifth -generation F? 35 fighter.F? 16 is upgraded.

Of course, the Russian -Turkish relations during this period are not without friction. For example, in 2014, Turkey expressed his opposition to Russia and swallowed Krimea.Turkey's sacrifice of fruits and vegetables export sanctions.However, it can also be found that the Russian earth friction during this period cannot reverse the progress of the relationship between the two countries. The key reason may be that both parties avoid the aged and fatal controversy around the sphere of influence of the Strait.Not affected.

This says that it can be seen from a move in Turkey: After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War on February 24, 2022, Turkey quickly quoted the Monter Convention. On the 27th, it was obviously concerned that Russia took advantage of the expansion and expanding.The existence of military presence in the Black Sea affects Turkey's security.Judging from this action, the anxiety from history is still faintly painful, and it is an important destiny of Russian -Turkish relations; but in other words, as long as you avoid touching this guide, Russian and Turkish relations have the opportunity to maintain from 1878 to 1914 to 1914Moisture.

Focusing on the Russian Turkish interaction that people call "betrayal" today, Turkey ’s actions are actually intended to balance the relationship between the United States, including opening the green light on the upgrade purchase of the United States on the upgrade of the United States, and striving for Western investment.To ease the crisis of inflation in Turkey.But this does not mean that the Russian -Turkish relations will return to the state of high -intensity camps from 1841 to 1878 and 1952 to 1991. On the one hand, Russia has no military strength in Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union.It is better to just join the NATO trend in 1952 and can strictly regulate allies' actions. Otherwise, Turkey will not purchase the S? 400 missile defense system in Russia in 2017, nor dare to resist Finland and Sweden from 2022 to 2023.And to ask for the price of the United States.

In other words, if Turkey was not "too close to Russia" before, there would not be today's "pro -beauty", but the re -balance strategy of being regarded by the outside world as "inverted" was actually the normal diplomatic state in Turkish history.The difference is just what Russia played.As a Russian president, Putin cannot know nothing about it, otherwise when Turkey said in May 2022, when Turkey said to resist Finland and Sweden to join NATO, he publicly stated that "Russia has no opinion on joining the NATO."In addition to avoiding the "north of the front" of the outside world, it is obviously that the Turkish will be concessions sooner or later, so they do not hold hope for Erdogan.

Focusing on the moment, after this "re -balance", Russia will still cooperate with cooperation issues, such as coordinating the order of Syria, but this does not mean that the two countries are strategic alliances.From another perspective, although this is not Erdogan's first "betrayal" Putin, it will not be the last time, it does not mean that the Russian and Turkish relations are about to worsen.Observing the current international situation and the strategic focus of Russia. In the future, Russia still has a high chance of maintaining and slowing interaction. It seek cooperation in friction and continue to calculate in cooperation.Even if there are "betrayal", it is probably Putin tolerate and "betrayal" that Erdogan can also control.