Source: Observer.com
Author: Laulashen
On July 13, the Thai parliament voted to elected the Prime Minister of Thailand, and the candidate for the new prime minister will be finalized by the end of this month.
The special feature of this election is that outsiders seem to have a "political star" in Thailand, which has a long -term dead water.
This "political new star" is the head of the party's advanced party in the next House election in May this year -the leader of the party (hereinafter referred to as the pagoda). He is also a popular candidate for the Prime MinisterEssence
Since the military coup in 2014, the Thai military government has been in power for nearly 10 years, and Thailand has also become a country in the world in the world today.At the same time, Thailand still retains the monarchy. The royal family has strong authority and huge wealth, and often work.
For foreigners, the impression of Thailand has become one -open tourism+military government+monarchy+occasional coup+election -such a wonderful mixture.
After all, even if the military and the royal family are so powerful in Thailand, the military must legalize the governance by running.
The situation of this year is: the military -the royal family conservative forces; the traditional opposition party -he believes in the group; the third force -the forward party.
These three forces are against the throne of the Prime Minister's throne.Can Thailand go out of the military governance for nearly ten years?Can the power of the young generation break through the old political constraints?The good show has just begun.
Three -legged Dingli
The above three forces are as follows as the subjects in this election:
- Military -the current Prime Minister of Thailand (unified Thailand Founding Party), the current Vice Prime Minister Bayi (People's Republic of China), Avanthearted Minister Auting (Thai Pride Party)
- Traditional Opposition Party -He believers group (the party party)
- Third Power -Central Left Opposition Party (Qianqian Party), the party's first is the "pier"
As a rookie in politics, it can be described as a clear stream.At the age of 43, if he was elected, he will be the youngest prime minister in Thailand.He is a standard elite return. He has received typical Western education, studied in New Zealand since he was a child, and was educated in a famous Ivye school in the United States.At the same time, he is still a disobedient single father. He belongs to "Golden Single Han" and "Best Son -in -law" in Thailand.
His political experience is not rich. He officially entered politics in 2019. Although his father is also a Thai official, it is not a political family. From the before politics, he stayed abroad or business in business for a long time.
Let's take a look at the Thai party of his believer. The party's two candidates Peitantan and the society won him, namely his daughter and Thai real estate tycoon.
Peitan is from the first political family in Thailand. He believes in his family. His father, aunt, and uncle all served as the Prime Minister of Thailand. His believers started from Chiang Mai.The influence is based on the peasant class in northern and northeast of Thailand, advocating policies such as minimum income guarantee, benefiting farmers, etc., and economically pursuing new liberalism.
Since the first military coup in 1932, Thailand has gone through 12 military coup, and the military has been in control of the government for a long time. It is difficult for the party to fight against the military.
This situation did not start to break until he believed in Sinova as Prime Minister in 2001.He believes that since 2001, he has stabilized the largest opposition party in Thailand for 22 years.In the 21st century, Thailand politics continued to rotate under his two forces.
Compared with the deeper military of the tree and the group, the Qianjin Party, as a new force, was only five years since its establishment in 2018. After only two elections, they achieved amazing performance.
In 2019, the predecessor of the advanced party's predecessor will participate in the Thai Parliament election and become the third largest party of the parliament in just one year. In 2023, it became the largest party, and its rise was shocked by Thailand's politics.
The originator of the Party is 45 -year -old Chinese entrepreneur Zhuang Haiwen. He is the owner of the three friends group of the largest manufacturer of the largest automobile parts in Thailand.He proposed a bold political concept, including de -militaryization, establishing a welfare system, and strengthening local decentralization. It is called "Thai civilian billionaire".
From the current election, the three parties have their own solid basic disk: the Thai military and its forces still have the traditional central and southern constituencies; he believes that the Thai party continues to north and northeast of the Thai party.The ministry has won votes; in addition to the emerging advanced party, in addition to in the north, it has an overwhelming advantage in Thailand's largest metropolitan area and capital Bangkok.
However, even if the advanced party has achieved victory in Congress, the party's prime minister's road is still very rugged. The situation of "winning parliament and losing the Prime Minister" is likely to occur. This situation has been performed in 2019.
Parliament hidden rules
The biggest obstacle among them is the "parliamentary hidden rule" formulated by the Thai military.
According to the 2017 Constitution of Thailand, 250 members of the House of House are appointed by the military. The Prime Minister of Thailand was selected by the upper and lower houses. Only the majority of the upper and lower houses, that is, more than 50%of the 750 seats in the upper and lower houses, that is, at least 376 votes.Only to win, and the military has a natural weight of 33.3%, the starting point is a lot higher than the opponent.Even if the APM Party is excellent in the lower house, it may not be able to take advantage of the overall,
From the selection in May, the Tower failed to meet the requirements for the votes of the elected Prime Minister.The APPC received 313 votes in the House of Commons, 376 votes from the House of Commons needed by the elected Prime Minister, and 63 votes.
This election system is of course the result of the Thai military's planning, which also allowed the military to taste the sweetness in 2019.After we came to power in 2014, the current Prime Minister of the Guardous Government, Ba Yu (military), revised the constitution. In 2017, through the new constitution, the Prime Minister was elected from the original lower house to the upper and lower houses including the upper and lower houses, including the upper and lower houses.
In the 2019 election, although he believed that the Thai party was the largest party in the House of Commons, his candidates could not be the prime minister. Bayu received all the voting of the upper House under the military control and re -elected prime minister.
In addition to the House of House, the military also has another ace, that is, the constitutional ruling in 2022, ruled that the term of Pakistani was not available, and it could be ruling until 2025.
In August 2022, the opposition party had sued the Thai Constitutional Court to ruins to terminate Prime Minister Bayu's term. The prime minister must not exceed eight years before and after his term.
2022 is the eighth year of Bayu's governance, and it should be stepped down, but Ba Yufang argued that its term of office should be calculated from the 2017 New Constitution Drafted by the military, so it can be governed until 2025.The court actually supported the Bayu side, which shows that the Thai military's control over the judicial system.
The advanced party is difficult to advance
In addition to the military's institutional obstacles, there are other difficulties in the forward party.
There are many people who are right and wrong. The pagoda on the road of worship was attacked by a large number of scandals. It was accused of holding the shares of ITV during the campaign, violating the campaign law, and may be charged to court.
In addition, the alliance formed by the advanced party is not united, and other opposition party's advanced party is not absolutely supported.Although the Qianjin Party and the Thai Party, although the other six parties such as the Thai party formed an alliance, as a compromise, the Director of the House of Commons gave the party leader of the small party party, losing the position of the Speaker, and it is even more difficult for the Panbai to phase.
More importantly, the policy proposed by the advanced party has made conservatives very disgusted and it is difficult to win the Military House votes controlled by the military.The advanced party advocates modifying the insulting royal family law, Review the budget to the royal family, and support the legalization of same -sex marriage and liberalization of alcohol. In the supreme Thailand of the royal family, the policies of the offending monarchs naturally cause strong opposition from conservatives.
More important than being the Prime Minister
Although the road to the Prime Minister of the Party is difficult, it still has widely supported voters, especially young people.The disgusting of young people on the military is obvious.No matter how many differences in the opposition party, a little consensus is firm -overthrowing the military and never cooperate with the military party.
The anti -monarch system of young Thai voters has also become more prominent in recent years. It is believed that it can no longer meet the needs of the country's development. It is purely the money of the taxpayer, and advocates cancel the law that gives the royal privilege.Especially after the incense of Wajiralongong, who was unbelievable in 2016, not only went to Germany to "refuge" during the epidemic, but also was widely criticized due to the luxurious private life and excellent moves.
The economic situation of the downturn in Thailand also makes the public eager to change and change the status quo.
Although it is difficult to be a Prime Minister from the current system, laws and procedures, it is more important to be a prime minister, maybe more important than being a prime minister is Thailand's increasingly powerful mass forces and the pursuit of democracy and progress.The military's heart is not the general trend.
Just two days ago, on July 11, the current Prime Minister Ba Yu suddenly announced his withdrawal from politics. The Thai media generally believed that Bayu's attitude of active decentralization was to alleviate the people's dislike of the military.Let's make a way for the other prime minister of the military.
Even the Thai party who believes in the group is willing to give up his candidates and support the only candidate for the alliance as the league. From the side, the contradiction between the democratic and the military conservatives is the main contradiction.
Voters are very disgusted with Thailand's traditional royal family, the military binary system.The opposition alliance and its representatives are confronted with Thailand's solid current legal system and the military. Regardless of whether the pagoda can be the prime minister, Thailand will usher in a storm.
If you win the tower, it will change the political territory of Thailand for nearly ten years.
If the tower is defeated, Thailand will also usher in a large -scale parade.In recent years, the Thai people have protested continuously. In 2020, the progress of the progress of the progress of the party has been dissolved, and the people have stepped on the street to protest.In this year's election, Bai Zihua's election has pushed the voters' emotions to its peak.
The Thai election is currently anxious, and the election results are highly uncertain.According to the past history of Thailand, even if it becomes a prime minister, it is also a problem to stabilize governance.The Thai royal family and the military still have great power, not only can manipulate Congress to prevent opposition from entering the stage, but also to overthrow their dissatisfaction forces through "coup".
Can Thailand today open a new page of history?And more importantly, regardless of the surface political form, the awakening young generation pursues social welfare, equality, the anti -military government and the anti -monarchy, which is an indisputable fact. This is the general trend.
