Comments: Chinas economic growth is urgent to make policies break the situation.

Source: Bloomberg

There are no shortage of authoritative experts to regain the economy.The former financial minister and a number of government consultants listed a long list of financial and monetary measures, and hoped to effectively boost economic growth.

Former Treasury Minister Lou Jiwei and Liu Shangxi, Luo Zhiheng, fiscal experts who participated in the Prime Minister's symposium last week, and several other economists with close relationships with the government have recently built on the meeting and official media. The content includes increased content.The fiscal deficit, further rate cuts and restrictions, liberalized real estate loan restrictions, introducing targeted tax preferential policies, and raising residents and corporate subsidies are sufficient.

At present, the recovery of multiple levels of China is facing difficult challenges: the real estate market has become weak after a brief rebound, the hidden concerns of local debt risk expand, and the exports are shrinking.Strike.Whether the government's suggestions can be transformed into effective medicines, investors will wait and see.

Add budget deficit

Lou Jiwei, who had served as the Minister of Finance from 2013 to 2016, published an article on the front page of the Economic Daily on Sunday that this year's economic growth is lower than the potential growth rate, which is not conducive to maintaining full employment. It is necessary to increase it.The intensity of fiscal monetary policy expansion.He also said in an interview with China Daily that it was recommended to increase the fiscal deficit of 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about 280 billion to 370 billion yuan), mainly to increase the central fiscal deficit.

Bloomberg calculated that if the proposal of the building to increase the budget deficit, the highest rate of Chinese deficit will be increased to about 4.55%, a significant increase from the 3%level this year."If the short -term fiscal policy needs to be expanded after scientific analysis, it is necessary to increase the fiscal deficit in a timely manner to restore the economy to normal as soon as possible. The cost of this approach will not affect the financial sustainability," Lou Jiwei wrote.

In addition to increasing more national debt issuance, Bloomberg last week and quoted people familiar with the matter to report that high -level considerations will timely issue more local government bonds within the limit of local debt deposit limit space to help prevent and resolve the space to help prevent and resolveDebt risks in high -risk areas.Considering that the progress of local debt issuance in the first half of the year is slow, the market generally expects that local bond issuance materials will speed up in the third quarter to help steadily grow.

The currency further efforts

Although factors such as the recent depreciation of the RMB have been constrained by the loose currency, the approaching pressure of the shrinking pressure has once again triggered the voices of further increased stimulation.Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former member of the Central Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee, said at a macroeconomic forum that interest rate cuts are "relatively large".

Securities Times also quoted Liu Yuanchun, the president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said on the forum that 100 basis points for interest rate cuts will save 3.1 trillion yuan in financing costs in the country, exceeding the sum of the profit of industrial enterprises above the first five months of the year. "It is an important magic weapon to solve the current poor economic cycle and high cost. "

Many experts and market participants also expect that the People's Bank of China may make a deposit reserve ratio again this year, or to guide banks to issue more loans to the real economy through window guidance.The Shanghai Securities Journal said in a recent report that China's monetary policy will continue to make "steady growth", structural monetary policy tools may be reused, becoming the main policy of the next stage.

boost real estate demand

China's real estate market has once again fell into a downturn, becoming the main obstacle to the road of economic recovery.The People's Bank of China has just announced the extension of real estate financial support policies, and the market's further stimulus measures on the demand of the property market have also risen.

Lou Jiwei suggested in the media interview to cancel the real estate loan restriction policy and restrictions on the rise and fall of house prices in order to help recover from demand. At the same time, it can be announced in the future.At the same time, the demand for rigid improving housing is guaranteed.

Tax discount

After years of large -scale tax reduction and fee reduction, China's fiscal revenue is facing great pressure, and the space for further tax reduction and fee reduction is limited. Future policies may be more targeted.Luo Zhiheng, the chief economist of Yuekai Securities, published an article in China Financial Magazine, headed by the central bank, saying that it is advisable to shift tax cuts from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of effect, focusing on implementing past policies, and stabilizing the macro tax burden.

The industry that is in line with China's development strategy is still expected to enjoy more tax support.Bloomberg had previously quoted people familiar with the matter that the Chinese government was considering launching preferential tax policies for advanced manufacturing as soon as possible, and it is expected to reduce the tax burden of hundreds of billions of yuan for related beneficiaries.Some analysts believe that in the future, companies in the fields of integrated circuits, industrial parent machines and other fields have obtained more tax incentives in science and technology research and development.

Subsidy Enterprise and Residents

The three -year epidemic has greatly impacted the residential department, while the macro policies for residents' rescue are relatively small.Many people in the industry have proposed to increase the purchasing power of residents in the form of consumer vouchers.Luo Zhiheng suggested that the central and local governments jointly bear the responsibility of expanding consumption. According to the principles that are in proportion, the proportion of subsidies in the east, central and central and northeast regions has different proportion of subsidies.

But he also pointed out that this method does not have sustainability and may face realistic problems in local financial difficulties. Therefore, the medium- and long -term reform is still a strategy to cure.

In terms of reform, Liu Shangxi, Dean of the Chinese Academy of Finance, said in an interview with CCTV that research showed that the urban population growth and consumer demand expanded to a positive relationship. It is recommended to break through the dual structure of urban and ruralThe process of farmers citizen provides corresponding public services.In addition, some experts have suggested that the minimum wage standard is further raised to increase the income of low -income groups.

In Lou Jiwei's view, the most critical policy starting is still to protect the main body of the market, allowing small, medium and micro enterprises to operate normally, and expanding and providing employment positions is the most important.He suggested that most of the increase in the central deficit is used for phased subsidies such as small and medium -sized enterprises, hydropower, interest, and interest, and according to the business conditions of the enterprise, fiscal subsidies can be directly received.