Comment: Investors are cautious and optimistic about the Chinese stock market in the t

Source: Bloomberg

China's economic recovery is insufficient. Investors are looking forward to a strong stimulus policy, and they are also cautious about the market outlook.They predict that in the third quarter, the main stock indexes of Lu and Hong Kong may only usher in a small increase.

Bloomberg News reported the questionnaire made by 18 analysts and fund managers this week, showing that their forecast medium digits at the end of the third quarter of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index were 3950 points, which was only 2.8% from the closing of Friday.In the increase, the medium value of the Hang Seng Index increased by 5.7%higher than the closing.

Although most interviewees have said that the market has bottomed out, the prediction results show that because the Chinese government has not yet introduced large -scale economic stimulus measures, investors believe that the sluggish stock market will not usher in a major change.Nearly 40 % of the respondents said that the most worried market risk is China's macroeconomic data, followed by the geographical situation and concerns about the decline of the US economy.

Although the zero policy of the epidemic has ended for nearly half a year, China's economic growth momentum has further slowed down in the past two months: the real estate market has continued to weaken, and the unemployment rate has reached a new high. The manufacturing activities in June have shrunk again.In view of the downward reduction of profit growth, HSBC reduced the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index target level by 2.8%and 6.5%, respectively, and Citi also reduced the target level of the Hang Seng Index to 22,000 at the end of the year.

"We hold a defensive position in the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2023", and UBS strategist Angus Chan wrote in the report.He said that the UBS China macro team has lowered the prospect of China's GDP in 2023, which means that Hong Kong's economic growth may have a downward risk. At the same time, Hong Kong may also face a higher and longer global interest rate environment.

In order to reverse the situation and restore confidence, the respondents of the questionnaires of this surveyed questionnaire suggested to increase financial support by consumer vouchers and tax deductions, formulate the overall plan for local debt disposal and replacement, increase technology and new energy sources to technology and new energy sourcesInvestment in the field, promote employment.Investors also hope that the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government Central Politburo will be issued in July to introduce more powerful stimulating measures.

Huaxin Securities analyst Yan Kevin pointed out that the government should adopt "more effective stable growth policies, similar to the economic support policy similar to supply -side reform, not monetary policy."

Although the expectations of the stock market reversal are not high, only one of the interviewees stated that it plans to reduce investment in Chinese stocks in the next few months. Seven plans to increase investment, and the remaining interviewees remain unchanged.

In terms of sector performance, more than half of the respondents believe that technology stocks will perform the best in the third quarter, followed by consumption and state -owned enterprise stocks, and they believe that real estate will only perform the best.This seems to reflect the pessimistic attitude of investors in the prospect of the real estate industry, although the central bank and local governments have adopted interest rate cuts and relaxation measures to stimulate demand.