Indonesian presidential election will be held on February 14 next year.However, the three candidates have now become the focus of people's discussion.Recent polls recently showing the recent polls of Indonesian poll agencies (IndiKator Politik "showed that the supporting minister of National Defense Minister Prabervo received 38%of the support, and he pressed the current Sino -Java Governor Ganchar (34%), and his former he was in his predecessor, and his predecessor wasJakarta's chief Anis only received 19%.

The polls also show that if Plabovo will get 50.5%of the votes in Plabovo, Plabovo will get 39.3%.In other words, most of Anis' votes will be transferred to Plabovo.

Since April, Plabovo has led Gandhar in various polls in Indonesia.Some people say that this trend is very unfavorable to Gandhar.Previously, Gandhar was leading Plaboor, but Gandchar fell behind his opponent in April.What is the reason?

FIFA was originally prepared to hold a men's youth World Cup Football Tournament (referred to as Shiqing Cup) under the age of 20 in Indonesia in May.The Shiqing Cup is held in Indonesia, which is related to Indonesia's rotating chairman of the Geminar 20.The Indonesian team is expected to be held in Indonesia to improve the status of Indonesia's football.However, because the 20 -year -old team also participated in Israel, former President Meijianti believed that to inherit her father's legacy, he must support Palestine and forced Gandhar to express his opposition to Israel's participation in Central Java.As a result, FIFA canceled Indonesia's right to host.This not only disappointed football and Indonesian football, but also highly dissatisfied with anti -Muslim radicals.

Gandhar's market market is light

The polls after the incident showed that Gambar's voting rate continued to fall behind Plabovo.

The Democratic Party officially launched Gandchar as a presidential candidate on April 21.When nominated, the United States and Canadi emphasized that Gambar was the party's cadre.Gambar expressed gratitude for the trust and nomination of the United States and Canadi.

Gandhar was the highest reputation before it was proven to be nominated. Instead, the support rate after being officially nominated was not as good as Plabovo, and it did not improve within a month.People who support Gandhar are worried about him, blame the United States and Garviti and the struggle to send the Democrats arrogant, treat Gandhar as a party officer, and only take care of the interests of political parties rather than the interests of the people.

At that time, there were also rumors that Gander had signed a "political secret" with the United States and Garvani before accepting nominations. The two sides agreed that the vice presidential candidate and the future cabinet members were decided by the United States and Garvadi.This means that Gambar is the puppet of the United States and Gagari, and it is not a big device.However, both the Democratic Party and Gander later denied that there was a "secret".

Some analysts believe that the relationship between Gander and the current president Zako is not as close as before, which may be related to the entire process of USA and Zoko.According to reports, the United States and Canadi excluded Zoko from the core of the Democratic Party in the struggle, and all party affairs were determined by her and close relatives.

Gandhar was nominated as a presidential candidate, and Zoko was notified afterwards.This made Zoko suspect that Gander had compromised to the United States.Therefore, Zoko's support for Gander is no longer as resolute as before.Before that, Zoko hinted many times that those who were suitable for presidents were white -haired people who worried about the country and the people.The white -haired presidential candidate was the only one.

The "People's Cross Conference" (Musra) of Zoko supporters selected the leaders they like in 30 provinces. As a result, two names appeared: Plabovo and Gandhar.On March 14, Zoko's speech at the "People's Consultation Conference" was also a bit intriguing.He said in front of his supporters that don't choose candidates too hurriedly.Some people think he is implying that there are other candidates who are suitable, this person is Plabovo.However, some people also analyzed that Zoko was unwilling to offend Plabovo because he needed the next president to complete the project he launched and find a protective umbrella for himself.

Plabowo salted fish turning

Plaboor has praised Zoko since his announcement of running the president.During the Eid, he also made a special trip to Zoko's private house congratulations.Zoko also said at the Memorial Conference of the Greater Indonesian Sports Party that Plabowava has been running for the president many times, and this time it is his turn to be the president.Although this may be just polite, many people regard it as Zako's statement.

In fact, Plabowavo was aggrieved and became the National Defense Minister of the Cabinet, especially after announced that he would no longer show his previous "fierce" style, but created the image of "amiable".He visited politicians everywhere and General Veramid, who had grievances with him, and visited the Memorandum's Muslim organization (such as the Islamic Missionary Federation), and he seemed to be supported by a open and sophisticated "politician" attitude.

Earlier, some people had regarded Plabowo as an outdated presidential candidate. I did not expect that he would turn salted fish and become a popular figure.Instead, Anis was left behind by him, and even the popular Gander became the second figure in the recent polls.

Many people who care about the situation in Indonesia still have a lot of money to Prabowo.Plabovo is a representative of the military era. It has a close relationship with the Suhado family and has a record of anti -human rights.More importantly, Fadli Zon, who established a party with him and became his most powerful assistant, still followed him.This person is closely related to Muslim Classic and Muslim Conservative Conservatives, and anti -China Anti -China.

Even after Plabowavo joined the Zok Cabinet, Fedeli Zun still performed himself, not only criticizing government measures, but also to protect Muslims with herself.He publicly urged the Indonesian police counter -terrorism forces (DENSUS 88) because Indonesia "no terrorist organizations."Plabovo did not call him convergence, nor did he punish him.

Once Plaboor became the president, Fedley Zun will be appointed and introduced the radicals who oppose the five principles of the founding of the People's Republic of China (that is, Banchara), which will affect the Indonesian political situation in the future.

According to the current situation, if there are three presidential candidates come out to campaign, in the first round of elections, Plaboopo, Gandhar, and Anis cannot get more than 50%of votes.Anis is likely to be the first to be eliminated.Well, in the second round of presidential elections, most voters who support Anis are likely to switch to Plabovo.Well, Plabovo is likely to win in the Indonesian presidential election.

The strategy of fighting the Democratic Party is to prevent Anis from becoming a presidential candidate to avoid triangular warfare phenomena.If there is only a round of elections, the Plaboor is opposing Gandchar, Gandhar still has the hope of winning.However, there are eight months before the presidential election, and it cannot be concluded too early.

The author is Singapore's Yusov Isa East South Asian Research Institute

Senior visiting researcher

Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute part -time professor