China's official manufacturing PMI in October rose four months after four consecutive months, and accidentally dropped to the contraction range.PMI data that is worried about weakness may weaken the recovery of China's economy.
China National Bureau of Statistics released the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) data on Tuesday (October 31). October PMI dropped from 50.2 last month to 49.5, falling below the 50th glory boundary; non -manufacturing PMI also from 9 also from 9 from 9The 51.7 of the month dropped to 50.6, showing that the service industry and construction industry expanded, but the expansion speed slowed down.
From the perspective of classification indicators, of the five indexes that constitute the PMI of the manufacturing industry, the new order index, the raw material inventory index, and the employee index are lower than the critical point.The production index was 50.9, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that production is still expanding, but the pace slows down.Supplier delivery time index 50.2, also decreased by 0.6 percentage points from last month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry fell in October, which was mainly affected by factors such as higher bases in September, eleven festivals vacations, and pre -holiday demand.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Center of the State Council of the State Council of China, pointed out in an interview with the United Zard that PMI decline in October, in addition to the October holiday, also shows that the demand shrinkage is still relatively prominent.
He said: From the perspective of the PMI split index, insufficient demand has caused a sharp decline in price indicators, including the decline in production index, which is the main reason for the decline in many indexes.
China has rebounded in the third quarter, but the real estate industry has not yet stepped out of mud, coupled with the unemployment rate of young people and the high level of local debt levels, the overall demand is weak.It is generally believed that in the end of the year and 2024, Chinese policy makers need to launch more measures to boost demand.
Last week, the Chinese government rarely adjusted the budget in the fourth quarter, and issued 10 trillion yuan (RMB, approximately S $ 189.4 billion) in the fourth quarter. It focused on post -disaster reconstruction, hoping to drive domestic demand and consolidate the trend of economic recovery.
Zhang Liqun believes that the Chinese government issues a 1 trillion national debt and is used to support related infrastructure construction. These measures are very positive and the expected effect will be relatively obvious.
He said that in the next step, we must further increase government investment, which play a strong role in enterprise orders, enterprise production investment, and employment, so that the large -scale domestic market demand will be fully warm and active as soon as possible, so as to drive the Chinese economy to enter the continuous rise as soon as possibleGood development track.
