"If I allow me to condense the speeches of (several guests) just now, I will say that the Chinese economy is like one -third of water in a cup."
Professor Hong Yuanyuan, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, on Friday (October 27) in the theme discussion on the theme of the "Revisiting China Economy and Diplomacy" in the Hui Eye China Forum, with one -third of the water metaphoricalChina's economy.
As the last guest at this seminar, Hong Yuanyuan first summarized the arguments of other scholars, and explained that the current anti -wind and challenges faced by China's economy have exceeded the existing advantages. ThereforeHowever, Western media and commentators will pay more attention to more than two -thirds of the empty cups, and have not seen that the cup has been full.
Hong Yuanyuan also pointed out that although the negative reports of Western media focusing on two -thirds of the empty cups are conspiracy in some people in China, there is also a certain factual basis.When she recently studied in China as a Singaporean scholar, "the first time I really felt social disappointment."
Hong Yuanyuan is a Singaporean. She graduated from Colorado College and Stanford University in the United States. She studied in China in the United States and went to China to conduct on -site in -depth investigations.
For the metaphor of one -third of the water, Yao Yang, a Chinese economist at the same scene and the dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, described two -thirds of the empty cups as the potential of China's economic growth.
Yao Yang said that the Chinese government's latest 3.7 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, the same, S $ 693.5 billion) stimulus supporting will play a role, and he foresees that the Chinese economy will bottom out by the end of this year.
In the context of the sluggish real estate market and the local finances facing tremendous pressure, the National People's Congress of the National People's Congress, which closed on Tuesday (24th), voted through the addition of 1 trillion yuan of government bonds and a new local debt of 2.7 trillion yuan in advance.Essence
Bert Hofman, director of the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore National University, believes that the current Chinese GDP per capita in China is only $ 12,000 (S $ 16,423).5%effective elements are what China needs.
Hao Fuman advocates that China needs to clearly express future policies. These policies must pay more attention to demand, improve economic efficiency, and have a clearer explanation of the role of private enterprises.He said: "One of the uncertainty now lies in many private entrepreneurs worrying. In the new mode of China, is there still my space?"
The highest level in China has confidence in the overall direction
When talking about the prospects of the Chinese economy, Li Cheng, a professor of the Department of Political and Public Administration of the University of Hong Kong, and the founding director of the Center of Contemporary China and the World Research Center, said that through the direct contact with senior officials such as Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang, he observedThe 50 people in the leadership are very different from the provincial and ministerial officials and elites.
He said: "The highest level in China understands the challenges facing the country. They have confidence in the overall direction and also think that they have enough tools and means to overcome the challenges."
Li Cheng's analysis, high -level confidence comes from several aspects.First of all, they believe that putting security and stability on economic growth is the correct strategy. This is also the practice of other countries and regions in the United States, Japan, and the European Union.The highest level in China also believes that China's middle -income groups will reach 500 million next year, which is expected to become a engine that drives China's economic growth.
Li Cheng explained that another idea of China's highest level is: "If China is not good, where is it good?" Under the circumstances of high interest rates and continuous printing of banknote printing, economic growth cannot continue.
In addition, the highest level in China also believes that although the Chinese stock market and property market performs poorly, the night market is rising.Shenzhen has attracted 500,000 Hong Kong people to north every weekend, and domestic tourism is also recovering.
There are opposite narratives in China and the United States
In terms of diplomacy, Paul Haenle, the honorary director of Morris Greenberg, China, said that the driver of the deterioration of Sino -US relations will get a very different answer in Beijing and Washington.Dueling Narrates between the two countries.
He explained that China's narrative is an old -fashioned power in the United States, intending to curb China's rise; the US narrative has changed in China's policies, behaviors and development trajectories.In the context of the intensified disputes in the fields of Sino -US technology, trade, etc.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the United States this week, and was generally considered to be paved for the Supreme Leaders of China and the United States next month.Han Lei believes that the restarting dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States is very important. Although the two countries have scientific and technological competition, there is still a lot of room for cooperation in areas that do not involve national security.
