"We initially estimated that if we want to complete the annual expected goals, as long as it is increased by more than 4.4%in the fourth quarter ... From this perspective, we are very confident in completing the annual expected goal."

After China's third quarter economic growth data was released on Wednesday (October 18), when the deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Sheng Laiyun answered the media's question about whether the economic growth can meet the standards of the year,It is much easier.

Although the economic indicators of more than a month have performed halfway, the growth rate of 4.9 % year -on -year in the third quarter not only exceeded market expectations, but also eliminated concerns about whether China's economy can achieve about 5 % of growth goals in the near future.Affected by the epidemic sealing control, the increase in the fourth quarter of the Chinese economy in the fourth quarter last year was only 2.9%; if there was no accident, the year -on -year increase in the fourth quarter of this year would be higher than 6%.

Following the question is whether the decision -making layer will still launch a new round of economic stimulus measures by issuing a large amount of national debt and increasing fiscal deficit rate?

Bloomberg quoted the sources last week that in order to achieve the annual growth goal, Beijing is considering issuing an additional sovereign debt of at least 1 trillion yuan (RMB, Same, Same, S $ 186.7 billion).expenditure.This may make the budget deficit rate this year far exceeds the 3%limit announced at the National Two of China in March.

Reports quoted people familiar with the matter and said that the plan still needs to be approved by the State Council and the whole country, and it is still under review.As the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress is expected to hold a meeting at the end of this month, the relevant announcement may be announced as soon as this month.

In terms of procedure, the addition of government bonds and adjusting the central budget requires the Finance Ministry of Finance to submit the bill to the National People's Congress Finance and Economics Committee, and the committee gives opinions after a preliminary review.The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress reviewed the bill of Finance during the meeting, and decided whether to approve or not in conjunction with the opinions of the Finance and Economic Council.

Although the above process is not complicated, the Chinese government's adjustment of the budget in the middle of the year is extremely rare.According to statistics, in the past 30 years, the decision -making layer has only adjusted the central budget four times in the middle of the year, one of which was used for post -disaster reconstruction, that is, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake; the three times for stimulating the economy occurred in 1998 and 1999, respectively.Before and after the Asian financial crisis in 2000, the budget adjustment plan passed the end of August.

When

talks with several economists about the possibility of adjusting the budget, the first question is the time issue.Because this year has entered the last quarter, even if the Standing Committee of the People's Congress passed the bill at the end of this month, only two months can be implemented.In addition, the pace of infrastructure usually slows down in autumn and winter, and the stimulus measures are likely to be seen until next year.Rather than adjusting this year's budget, it is better to look at the fiscal budget next year.

Secondly, under the premise of the high probability of economic growth this year, is it necessary to use unconventional means?The 1 trillion yuan special Treasury bond issued three years ago was to deal with the impact of the sudden outbreak of crown disease. Is this year's economic situation equivalent?

If there is still a need for increasing the deficit rate, the most likely is to deal with the still unstable real estate market and the risk of local debt that needs to be resolved.

The latest data released on Wednesday shows that when the data such as industrial output and consumption are expected to grow, only the property market continues to deteriorate.The cumulative real estate development investment in the first three quarters of this year decreased by 9.1 %, which was lower than expected performance to drag the overall fixed asset investment increase.

On the other hand, the high local debt also hinders the momentum of economic recovery.Many private enterprises are in difficulty in operating because they are arrears by local government financing platforms, and their confidence has also been impacted.As the local government has issued special recycling bonds for special recycling bonds this month, it is believed that the central government should bear the voices of the main bond issuance liability and help localities to reduce the burden.

In addition to the property market and local debt, another major risk faced by the current economy is the disconnection between macro data and micro feelings, policies and markets.Although the economic indicators are improving, the public is still inadequate confidence in the prospects; that is, the policies are frequent, but the stock market has not improved.

The super -expected growth of GDP in the third quarter did not drive the stock market rebound on Wednesday. The CSI 300 Index has fallen to the lowest point in this year, and the rise of the Hang Seng Index has not continued to the closed market.In contrast, the news of the government's issuance of large government bonds was released the next day, and the Lugang stock market rose.

Since the beginning of this year, the market has been waiting for the government to come up with "real gold and silver", and the government has been careful to avoid repeating the mistakes of "big water irrigation" 15 years ago.From the perspective of the stock market that has fallen into the present, the consequences of repeated policy expectations are the difficulty of boosting the confidence of investors.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its expected economic growth in China this year and next year, and warned that the real estate crisis in China may increase next year. If the consumption confidence and investment of the world's second largest economy will be reduced too fast, it will be too fast, and it will be too fast, which will be too fast, which will be too fast, which will be too fast, which will be too fast, which willIt brings great risks to the world economy.

Although China's economic growth rate has reached the standard this year, it has no suspense, but the crisis that has not been resolved may have laid hidden dangers for the development of next year and even longer.This explains why the official may still "enlarge the trick" in the remaining two months.But the decision -making layer must also consider that in the last quarter, what signals will release the market?

Chinese officials have repeatedly emphasized that there is still enough ammunition to come in handy in the policy tools.However, to make the fierce medicine effective, the dose and timing are equally important.In the last two months of this year, will the market wait for a stubborn need to apply the right medicine?