China's economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, which helps to complete the annual economic growth goals.Economists analyzed that the Chinese economy has gone out of the country and has gradually rebounded, and the government has introduced more pressure on the pressure of more macro -stimulus policies.
China National Bureau of Statistics announced data on Wednesday (October 18). In the third quarter, GDP (GDP) increased by 4.9%year -on -year, and GDP increased by 5.2%year -on -year in the first three quarters.
Vice Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Sheng Layun said that as long as it increases by more than 4.4%in the fourth quarter, it can ensure the completion of the expected target of about 5%of the year. He is "very confident" in completing the expected target.
Consumption has accelerated the recovery. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in September increased by 5.5%, hitting a new high in June.In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 83.2%.
Industry and service industries continue to expand.In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above designated size in China was 4%year -on -year. Among them, the output of solar cells, charging piles, and new energy vehicles increased by 63.2%, 34.2%, and 26.7%, respectively.The added value of the service industry increased by 6%year -on -year.
Although China has not announced the unemployment rate from 16 to 24 years old, the unemployment rate in urban survey in September has dropped to 5%, a decrease of two consecutive months, the lowest level since November 2021.
China's economy is temporarily out of the trough
Scholars of interviewees believe that the Chinese economy has temporarily out of its trough.Fu Fangjian, an associate professor of Li Guangqian Business School of Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that in June and July this year, economic recovery was less than expected. Consumption and stock markets turned sharply. Employment pressure increased sharply, and pessimism broke out."In the third quarter, low -rise and high, domestic demand gradually rebounded, economic stability and signs of expansion showed that the Chinese economy had gone out of the trough of the year."
Bloomberg reported that data in various aspects of China in the first three quarters of China exceeded the predictions, indicating that the government's stimulus policy is playing a role.Since August, the government has launched a series of policies such as relaxing the management and control of the property market, allowing local governments to accelerate debt issuance, and bank interest rate cuts.
Foreign capital institutions have raised China's economic growth forecast.Morgan Chase expects that China's GDP will increase by 5.2%this year, higher than the previous 5%, and Nomura Securities will be expected to increase from 4.8%to 5.1%.
Zuo Xiaolei, the former chief economist of Galaxy Securities, said that with the expectations of the annual growth goals, the possibility of more stimulating policies in the fourth quarter will be introduced in the fourth quarter, but the government will increase infrastructure investment to stabilize the economy to stabilize the economy to stabilize the economy.increase.
Real estate risk is still
China's weak real estate is still dragging down investment growth.Data show that in the first three quarters, China's national fixed asset investment increased by 3.1%year -on -year, of which real estate development investment decreased by 9.1%.
Fu Fangjian believes that real estate risks are still there, but the overall economic growth has not stagnated, indicating that China's economy is expected to get rid of real estate dependence.He said, "High -end manufacturing investment, including photovoltaic and electric vehicles, make up for the gap in real estate investment."
He also pointed out that the market has not fully restored confidence in the market, and the uncertainty of conflicts with Harbin and Sino -US relations is still a huge uncertainties in China's economic growth.
