Affected by the downturn in the property market and land market, the local government's land sales revenue has fallen greatly last year, but most provinces are expected to stop falling this year.
According to China's first Finance on Wednesday (February 22), the income of government funds in 29 provinces decreased to varying degrees last year, with a maximum decrease of more than 60 %, mainly due to the decline in land transfer revenue.
In 2022, the state -owned land use rights transfer income of the national government fund in 2022 is about 6.7 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, the same, 1.3 trillion yuan), a decrease of about 2 trillion yuan over the previous year.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Securities, analyzed that the real estate market has continued to downturn since the second half of 2021. It is mainly due to the weakening of residents' expectations caused by the debt risk of real estate companies and crown disease.In 2022, the real estate market (including the land market) continued to downturn, driving the growth rate of land transfer revenue in the local government to a rapid decline, and to a certain extent, it impacted local financial resources.
Luo Zhiheng also introduced that the economic development level of the eastern coastal provinces and cities is high, the population continues to flow, the real estate industry is high, the land market is more active, and the demand is strong.This also led the scale of land transfer income in most provinces in the eastern region to lead the country.
Last year, only Hainan (31.1%) and Shanghai (7.7%) land transfer revenue remained increased.Land transfer income in other provinces show negative growth and different declines.The smaller drop is like Sichuan, with only one digit.And Tianjin, Jilin, and Qinghai are large, all of which have exceeded 60 %.
The income scale ranking is not large.Last year, Jiangsu (1069 billion yuan) and Zhejiang (833.6 billion yuan) land transfer revenue still ranked among the top two in the country. Shandong (539.6 billion yuan) rose to third, and Guangdong (466.6 billion yuan) fell to fourth.
Most provinces predict that land transfer revenue can stop or even increase significantly.
Luo Zhiheng believes that this year's macroeconomic economy will continue to recover. A series of stable growth policies continue to launch the foundation for boosting residents 'confidence and residents' income, and laid the foundation for the gradual recovery of the real estate market.In addition, the property market policy will promote the gradual recovery of the real estate market.
He also said that the financing problem of high -quality head enterprises will be solved, the risks of housing enterprises will gradually slow down, and the land acquisition capacity will be enhanced.Therefore, the land market is expected to stabilize in 2023, and the revenue of land transfer is generally restored.However, from the perspective of restoring the rhythm, it may have obvious results in the second half of the year, and further observation is expected to be observed in the first half of the year.
