The U.S. economy leads the worlds third quarter.

(Bloomberg, New York) It is estimated that in the third quarter, the US economy was driven by strong consumer expenditures in the past two years.This is a challenge for discussing whether it is necessary to further tighten the policy to avoid the economic reserve officials who are overheating, but it also shows that the US economy maintains a leading position in the world.

According to the median forecast of the economic division surveyed by Bloomberg, the annual growth rate of domestic GDP (GDP) in the United States from July to September is 4.3%.This shows that when the European economy is stagnant, the Chinese economy is struggling to drag in Asia, and the United States is still a global economic power.

The main growth engine of the US economy is personal consumption, and it is expected to grow at a rate of 4%.After nearly two years of interest rate hikes, consumers 'demand still maintains toughness, making the Fed officials' policies facing the test.Although the inflation rate has decreased from its peak value, the growth rate of price pressure is still almost twice that of the Fed's policy goal.

The third quarter economic report is scheduled to be released on Thursday (October 26).This season's strong economic growth should not be enough to promote the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in November, but if the momentum of consumer spending will not weaken in the fourth quarter, the Fed's possibility of further tightening the policy at the beginning of next year will increase.

If the growth continues to stay high, it will lead to high inflation US storage association: or need to tighten monetary policy

The Fed Chairman Powell said on Thursday (19th) at the New York Economic Club's event: "If more evidence shows that economic growth continues to be higher than the trend level, or the tightening of the labor market has not eased, which may further inflation may further further inflationStepping, and may need to further tighten the monetary policy. "

September (27th) revenue and expenditure data released on Friday (27th) will help understand the family needs and inflation momentum before the fourth quarter.

Economist predicts that the core personal consumption expenditure price index will increase by 3.7%, which is one of the first price indicators for the Federal Reserve because it exclude food and energy prices with large volatility.3.7%of the growth rate will be the smallest annual increase since May 2021, and it will be consistent with the mild increase of inflation.

Economists who were investigated by Bloomberg said: "Driven by the enthusiastic summer tourism and entertainment, consumer expenditure accelerates to unsustainable 4.2%. In the third quarter, the actual annual GDP growth rate may soar to 4.7%.In view of the recovery of inflation, high interest rates and student loans repayment, we expect that consumption in the fourth quarter will slow down. The Fed's tightening cycle will affect the real economy, but we believe that the increase in mortgage interest rates, credit card debts and commercial loans will rise in default.Will impact the growth of this quarter. "