The Palestinian radical organization Hamas launched an attack on the southern border area of Israel on October 7, cruelly killed many civilians, and even kidnapped about 200 Israeli and foreigners to the Gaza belt as hostages.Israel bombarded the Gaza Strip to revenge, vowing to completely destroy Hamas.This war has re -attracted the attention of the international community to the Palestinian situation, but the bloody conflict that has occurred for decades is also amazing. Is there a day that Baza has ushered in peace?
10月7日，哈马斯展开代号阿克萨洪水（也The action of calling the Aksa Storm) , more than a thousand militants invaded and washed Israel with blood under the cover of rockets.Hamas said that the attack was a response to the atrocities that the Palestinians suffered over the past decades, and it was also a great war launched to end Israel's occupation.But in the final analysis, this conflict is the result of the long -term solution of the Palestinian issue.
In recent years, Israel has expanded a settlement site on the west bank of the Jordan River, and the violent conflict between the extreme Israeli settlers and the Palestinians has intensified.The extreme right -wing government led by the Israeli Prime Minister Neyahu has no intention of allowing the construction of the Palestinian State that builds sovereignty, and tries to curb Hamas through the strategy of increasing carrots, so that Hamas on the division Gashaza and the Palestinian national power on the west bank of the Jordan River RiverThe institutions fight against each other, sitting up with the advantages of the fisherman.
At the same time, the United States has promoted the reconciliation of Israel with several Arab countries since 2020, and is promoting the normalization of Israeli relations with Saudi Arabia.If the negotiations are successful, the legitimate status of Israel in the region will be greatly improved, and Palestine will be further marginalized.
Through this attack, Hamas re -pushed the Palestinian issue back to the Middle East and the International Amber, and shaped himself as a real voice to resist Israel.Significant negotiations to promote the failure of the founding of the country.
Hamas attacked the Israeli border on October 7. Nir Oz was one of the attack communities. It is said that many residents were killed or taken away, and the local area was full.(AFP)
Daniel Byman, a senior researcher at the US Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS), said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: Attacking Israel can help Hamas to brighten its signboard as a resistance organization.This attack is also a provocative to Israel.
Byman believes that this conflict will last for a period of time and may expand into a wider conflict.In the short term, the counterattack with Israel may enhance Hamas's popularity.But in the long run, the war caused by the war mdash; mdash; a war provoked by Hamas mdash; mdash; the casualties brought about by Hamas may reduce the popularity of Hamas.
Do you expected to Israeli may might launch a comprehensive comprehensive launchFacial offensive , the outside world is unknown.However, some analysis believes that the fierce response of Israel may be in Haras.Attack Gaza will inevitably lead to a large number of civilian casualties, arouse the anger of Palestinian sympathy, which affects the global public's views on Israel, and may attract Hamas supporters in other regions to join the battle.
Is the resurrection of the two countries resurrected?
The conflict has made the international community re -pay attention to the long -term stagnation of the two countries.At the emergency meeting held at Cairo on October 11 at Cairo, the Arab National Alliance member states urged Israel to perform its international obligations as an international obligation and return to the negotiating table of the two countries.Chinese officials also pointed out that the way out of the Palestinian issue lies in the implementation of the two countries.
However, as the war fires the Israelites and the Palestinians on the opposite side, the prospects of the two countries' plans seem to be even more dim.Byman told Lianhe Morning Post: The two countries have been unpopular for many years, and this conflict will make it more popular.
Iraqi students and children took the streets of Baghdad on October 18 to support the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip.(Reuters)
In a comment article, Bayman pointed out that after the attack, no Israelis would think that they could ignore the Palestinian issue; but at the same time, the attack will also make most Israelis more convinced and give Palestine even moreGreat autonomy will mean more violence and make any lasting solution more difficult to achieve.
Prior to the outbreak of the conflict, the Israelites and the Palestinians had a low support for the plans of the two countries.The polls held in March and April of Petou Research Center showed that only 35%of the Israelis believed that Eba could live peacefully, down 10 percentage points from 10 years ago.
The polls released by the Palestinian policy and investigation and research center also showed that 67%of Palestinians opposed the plans of the two countries because Israel continued to expand its settlement, the Oslo Agreement failed to implement, and Israeli adopted compression methods in the occupation area.More and more Palestinians are pessimistic about the vision of establishing sovereignty states through peaceful ways. 53%of respondents believe that armed struggle is the best way to end Israel's occupation.
On October 13, the Palestinian people in Ramallah on the west coast of the Jordan River held a demonstration of supporting the Gaza Strip and conflict with the military.The picture shows a Palestinian attacking Israeli soldiers with a slingshot.(AFP)
The two countries' schemes dates back to 1937. At that time, Britain proposed to end the custody of Palestine, and suggested that a Jewish country and an Arab country in the Palestine region were suggested.In 1947, the United Nations Conference passed the UN resolution No. 181 and decided to establish Jewish and Arabia in Palestine, respectively, and announced the founding of the country shortly after Israel.However, the Arab countries believed that the resolution was unfair to the Arabs, and the first Middle East war broke out.After several wars, and Israel's continuous settlement, Palestine's hopes of founding the country are becoming more and more slim.At present, the internationally recognized plan of the two countries refers to the establishment of an independent Palestinian country based on the 1967 boundary, East Jerusalem as the capital, and enjoying completely sovereignty.
In 1993, Isaaba signed an Oslo agreement to open the process of replacement with land, but then two years after the Israeli Prime Minister Labin was assassinated and killed by Jewish radicals, making the agreement become empty talk.The Pakistani process has been stagnant for many years, and many comments believe that the plans of the two countries have actually died.
In 2020, the government of the US President Trump acknowledged that Jerusalem was the capital of Israel, and the US Embassy was in Tel Avi.Husband moved to Jerusalem, causing Palestine's east of Jerusalem as the hopes for the founding of the capital.The current U.S. President Biden continues the normalization process of Israeli and Arab countries launched by Trump, and the two countries have continued to be marginalized.
In September 2020, after the mediation of the US President Trump (right), Israeli Prime Minister Neyahu signed an Abraham agreement with several Middle East countries to achieve normalization of the relationship.(Reuters)
Nevertheless, the two countries' plans are still the only consensus solutions for the international community to solve the problem of Pakistan.Former Israeli Prime Minister Olmert said in an interview with Politico, a US News website politics (I must believe that this is the possible hell; HelloP;The price is also reasonable. I think that the international community will unite to oppose Hamas, which may give Palestine's power institutions on the opportunity to take a serious negotiation.This also requires the cooperation of Israel.
Some analysts pointed out that after the conflict of Harbin, the relevant parties must return to the negotiating table to try to open a new peace process.Jeremy Ben AMI, CEO of Washington Progressive Lobbying Group, said: Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Holy Battle Organization and Iran are not interested in resolving conflicts and realization, but many Palestinians have.Our entire policy should be designed to support and expand those Palestinians and other participants who really want to create an effective, peaceful and prosperous Middle East.In this way, Hamas and other malicious actors will not find the fertile soil.
After the war, maybe Hamas 2.0 appears?
Several experts pointed out that even if Israel can eliminate every Hamas leader in Gasha and bomb all the local tunnels, Hamas is unlikely to be destroyed.Israeli columnist Yossi Melman said: Hamas is an ideology, just like the Islamic State Organization.It is difficult to crush an idea.
To eliminate Hamas, which is intensive and secretly underground tunnels, it will obviously bring heavy casualties to the people of Baka, but for Israel, this is a must and must win to win.Fight.Byman said: Hamas's latest attack caused Israel to suffer unprecedented casualties, so if it does not destroy Hamas, this is unacceptable to Israel's future.
On October 18, a Palestinian girl was holding a cat and standing on the sore streets on the southern part of the Gaza Strip.(AFP)
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that if Israel can effectively expel Hamas, there may be several cases of the Gaza Strip. One is that Israel occupies Gaza, but it is unlikely.Jacob Nagel, a former national security consultant to Neutanahu, said: We don't want to rule Gaza mdash; mdash; this is sure.Rule Gaza means that Israel is responsible for 2.2 million people who are mainly the poor, and of course, they will face many resistance.
Israel can also evacuate Gaza after destroying Hamas, allowing the Palestinians and their supporters to decide what to do next, but this road will face severe challenges, including maybe other extreme armed organizations to fill the vacuum.A U.S. official said: (Israel) has no plan.If you destroy Hamas, who will fill the vacuum?Kaidda was destroyed and then the Islamic State came.It destroyed Hamas and replaced by Hamas 2.0.
Another possibility is to support Palestine's power institutions in Gaza.However, Palestinian power agencies were driven out of Gaza by Hamas in 2007. It is also generally regarded as corruption, incompetence and weak governments on the west bank of the Jordan River, which makes people question its ability to manage Gaza.
The international peacekeeping forces are temporarily settled in Gasha, which is another possible situation, but it is not clear which countries will be willing to invest a lot of strength for this.In addition, this war may produce a large number of refugees.
George Washington University Professor Marc Lynch said that Israel is not optimistic about the situation of Israel's attack on Gaza.For a long time, this may exacerbate the dissatisfaction of the Palestinian people on the west bank of the Jordan River, which spreads the conflict and forced the Palestinian to escape on a large scale again.
80%of Gaza Strip's population depends on humanitarian assistance.The picture shows August this year, Palestinian children are watered with water bottle in a water picking point in northern Gaza.(AFP)
The Government of Neitahu is expected to be settled after autumn
During the 1973 Atonement Day, Israel was also raid by Egypt and Syria, causing more than 2,600 Israeli Army.Since then, Israel is committed to improving the ability of combat reserve and becoming a military power in the Middle East. I did not expect that it was caught by a small Hamas.It is reported that Hamas has spent two years planning and attacking, and even openly practicing soldiers under Israeli eyelids, but Israel is convinced that Hamas is focusing on the Gaza economy and will not provoke the war.The attack was also launched the next day on the anniversary of the Atonement Day, and it humiliated Israel fiercely.
At present, Israel is able to unite to deal with Hamas for the time being, but after the war of war, the Neutanhu government will inevitably make an explanation and may step down.
Israeli poll: Nearly 90 % of the respondents believe that the raid is the government's negligence
The polls released by the Israeli Dialogue Center on October 12 showed that 86%of the Israeli Jews believed that the success of Hamas's raid was a failure of the national leadership.Almost all interviewees (94%) believe that the government has at least part of the responsibility for the attack on security and lack of attacks, and more than 75%believe that the government must bear most of the responsibilities.56%of people believe that after the war is over, Neutana must resign; 52%believe that the Defense Minister Garant should resign.
The polls conducted by the Israel Evening News on October 11th and 12th also showed that Neitanhu's support rate with allies fell, while the main political opponent Benny Gantz was bullish.If a general election is held immediately, the opposition will have 19 seats of the United Government with 41 victors, and 48%of the respondents will be the prime minister, and only 29%choose Neitanahu.
The house of the Gaza resident was bombed by Israeli air strikes, and he went home with a plastic bag to pick up the remaining home.(AFP)
HA Helly, an analyst at the Royal Institute of Institute of Institute of Institute of Institute of Think Tank, believes that destroying Hamas may be the last task before Neutanhahu stepped down.He told the News Weekly: Israel will launch a large -scale national survey, and the responsibility will be somewhere in the end.Lsquo; Mr. Security rsquo; Neutanahu will be difficult to get away.
Herhel pointed out that Negahu exacerbated domestic political differentiation.The corruption allegations he faced, the judicial reform plan implemented, and the far -right government he formed last year pushed the Israeli society to the edge, which also caused him to have no room for rotation.He consumed all political capital and investment on judicial reform and avoiding it.What did he get?A security institution that seems to be caught off guard, and the price is huge.
Jamie SHEA, former official of NATO and senior researcher at the friend of the think tank European, pointed out that Israel needs the help of the international community to solve the various problems around the Pakistani conflict.Guide relevant domestic debates.We must hope that the current sense of unity between the Israeli government and society will continue until the end of the action of eliminating Hamas, and transformed into the goal and willingness of the country to solve Israel's challenges in the head, and no longer just cure the standards.
