A research report shows that as the population accelerates, Japan is expected to face the risk of population extinction within about 700 years (696 years).At that time in Japan, there will be only one child under 15 years old.

▲ Professor Yoshida

Professor Yoshida Hao, director of the Economic and Social Research Center of Northeast University in Japan, made the latest revision of the 2024 version of the "Children's Population Clock" research report.

The study was inspired by the "Doomsday Clock" in the United States in 2012, and was carried out to improve the awareness of the low birth rate crisis.It is calculated every year based on the Japanese national population estimation data and published on the website of the Research Center around Children's Day (May 5).

Japanese children's population reached a new low

Children under 15 years after about 700 years of age or only one left

Data from the Population Calculation of the General Affairs of Japan on May 4th shows that the population of Japanese children has decreased for 43 consecutive years since 1982.As of April 1, including the permanent foreigner, the population of children under 15 years old was 14.01 million, a year -on -year decrease of about 336,000, and an annual decrease of 2.3%.Japanese children's population accounted for 11.3%, a year -on -year decrease of 0.2 percentage points. They all set the minimum record since 1950, reflecting the further intensified trend of Japanese declining childization.

According to this data, Professor Yoshida predicts that by May 5th, the children's population will be further reduced to 13.979189.The "Children's Popularity Clock" predicts that if the speed is unchanged, "January 5, 2720 after 696", the population of children under 15 years old will be reduced to only one left.

The

2023 version of the population clock forecast is "October 27, 2821" after 798. Compared with last year, the 2024 version of the prediction was 101 years in advance.The original 2012 edition was "4147", which also means that in the past 12 years (2012-2024), the forecast time has been advanced for 1427.This acceleration is related to "the number of Japanese newborns in 2023, the number of newborn in Japan has declined for the 8th consecutive year".

The "total fertility rate" in Japan (the number of children born in each woman's life) is 1.26, which is far lower than the 2.07 required to maintain the stability of the population.

If the child's population clock does not reverse

Japan or the first country that is extinct due to declining

Professor Yoshida pointed out that long -term economic downturn has caused young Japanese to be difficult to get married and give birth due to low income.He emphasized the need to improve the parenting environment and put forward measures to reduce the burden, such as the free of children's medical expenses and lunch fees, and promoting male childcare leave.He also proposed to postpone retirement time for 10 years and reform the system, so that parents can enjoy childcare leave for 3 to 5 years.

He warns that if the decline in fertility cannot be reversed, the pointer of the child's population clock will not turn back, "Japan may become the first country to be extinct due to younger childization."

Data show that as of October 1 last year, the number of children in all 47 Metropolitan Prefecture in Japan decreased year -on -year.Only the population of children in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture exceeds 1 million.

According to the United Nations Statistical Yearbook, among 37 countries with a global population of more than 40 million, Japanese children's population accounted for 11.3%, ranking second in the penultimate, which is only higher than South Korea (11.2%).

Red Star Journalist Deng Shuyi

Editor Pan Li blame Wei Kongming